New rules of the game: the evolution of Western leaders’ policy on war in Ukraine

The first month of 2024 was marked by Russia’s strong information operations. The Kremlin has been using all available media platforms to drive a wedge between the people and the government of Ukraine, while denying the existence of Ukrainian identity. At the same time, Russia pretends to be interested in negotiations to buy some time and divert the world community’s attention away from the war in Ukraine. However, the aggressive actions and intentions of Russian ultra-nationalists forced Europe to give serious consideration to the threat of direct military confrontation with the Russian Federation.

October 2023 was rich in foreign policy events and geopolitical shifts. Lack of consensus in the USA about further support to Ukraine, election of a pro-Russian government in Slovakia, unbending pro-Kremlin policy in Hungary, and intensified hostilities in the Middle East may affect the agenda in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Last week (September 25 - October 1), Ukraine announced the creation of the Defense Industries Alliance for weapons manufacturing. The Kremlin hasn’t given up on its imperial ambitions and threatens to capture new territories. For this purpose, the aggressor state plans to spend more than a third of its federal budget funds on the war. 

Last week (September 18–24), partners announced about the military assistance to Ukraine worth several million USD. The nearest batch for Ukraine includes, among other things, additional air defense systems, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery shells, and, possibly, the long-range ATACMS missiles. New York hosted a high-level week of the 78th session of the UN General Assembly, when leaders of some countries supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemned Russian aggression. Russia had not helped their ally Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan, enabling Baku for the successful military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand, Georgia’s ruling party accused Ukraine of supporting forces willing to stage a coup in the country, and initiated impeachment of the country’s pro-European President. 

Last week (September 11–17), Russian dictator Vladimir Putin met with his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un, who supported the Kremlin in its “holy struggle” against “hegemonic forces.” However, the Russian Federation and the DPRK have not signed any agreements, at least officially. Also, the Russians once again stated that they were allegedly ready for peace talks, but did not forget about the ultimatums: Ukraine must agree to the occupation of part of its territories.  The Council of Europe adopted a declaration with the principles of transparent and effective functioning of the previously created International Register of Damage Caused by Russia's Aggression against Ukraine. Several EU members bordering the aggressor country banned vehicles with Russian license plates from entering their territory. On the other hand, Ukraine systematically attacks the Russian Black Sea Fleet with the sea drones. In total, the Defense Forces destroyed or damaged more than 20 Russian warships, including 5 last week. Among them, there is a large landing ship "Minsk" and the submarine "Rostov-on-Don".

Last week (September, 4–10), the negotiations took place between Presidents of Turkiye and Russia, where Vladimir Putin admitted Russia might resume the “grain deal” if his country’s demands are fulfilled. In particular, when sanctions are relaxed for Russia’s agricultural sector. On September, 9–10, in New Delhi (India), a G20 summit took place. As a result, the participants adopted a compromise statement about Ukraine. Armenia conducted joint military exercise with the USA, which caused a wrathful reaction from the Kremlin, the same as the fact that the US transferred to Ukraine the depleted uranium munitions. The Office of the President of Ukraine criticized the UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, and qualified their opinions about the lack of sufficient evidence for the Russia-committed genocide in Ukraine a “political toothlessness” and “indirect encouragement of a criminal.”

At the same time, Ukrainian troops continue to liberate the occupied territory and are on the verge of a breakthrough. The increasing number of explosions on the territory of Russia, the destruction of the strategic objects of the aggressor, and the landing of the Ukrainian military in the occupied Crimea indicate the inevitable failure of Putin's venture in Ukraine. Finally, more and more countries are agreeing to support the security guarantees of Ukraine and to join the exercises of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.

Last week (August 14–20), an important news was the decision of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer 61 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine. Also, Ukrainian pilots have already begun testing on Swedish Gripens aircraft, which in the future will make it possible to get these 4th generation fighters.