In its Strategic Concept for 10 years, NATO recognized russia as the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies, peace, and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Also, the Alliance plans to increase its military presence by 7.5 times, accept two new members, Sweden and Finland, and increase Ukraine's trust fund to $300 million. Ukraine, in turn, not only draws attention to some problems and asks for a solution but tries to dictate a specific agenda. And after the victory, the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO will definitely arise, and support for this issue in Ukrainian society is unquestionable. OPORA's analyst and invited experts spoke about this during the traditional weekly OPORA.Live online discussion on Wednesday, June 29.
OPORA's senior analyst Oleksandr Kliuzhev notes that on June 28-30, the NATO summit will take place in Madrid, where the new Strategic Concept of NATO for the next 10 years will be adopted. After the founding treaty of NATO, such a concept plan is the main document of the Alliance, which serves as a guide for its further adaptation. In the document, russia is recognized as the biggest and direct threat to the security of allies and the world in general. However, in the previous strategic concept adopted in Lisbon in November 2010, russia was perceived as a "strategic partner" for the members of the Alliance. At the beginning of June, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that there are no great expectations from the NATO summit in Madrid. However, the topic of military aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine is decisive during the meeting in the capital of Spain. At the summit, a meeting of heads of state and government of NATO and Ukraine took place, and an increase and continuation of NATO's long-term support for Ukraine were agreed upon.
"During the current NATO summit, it was announced that it is actually a transformational summit, when the Alliance is adapting to the challenges it faces. And Ukraine is the central line among these challenges. Of course, we are far from the opinion that the problems of Ukraine and russia's war against Ukraine are the only topics for discussion at the NATO summit. But we are interested in how our events, the aggression against us, affect NATO's agenda, and how the Alliance is ready to act in response to aggression against the russian federation," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
According to the adopted NATO Strategic Concept for 10 years, russia is recognized as the most significant and direct threat to the security of allies, peace, and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. This country also plans to establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, direct and hybrid aggression, and annexation. It is worth noting that during the adoption of the last Strategic Concept for 10 years, russia was defined as a partner of the Alliance. In addition, Belarus is mentioned several times in the NATO documents within the summit with a call to stop its involvement in aggression against Ukraine. China is also mentioned, but in the context of the fact that it is not a threat, but only creates challenges for the interests of the members and partners of the Alliance.
"Now the strategy of the Ukrainian political leadership is not just to pay attention to problems, not just to ask for a certain solution, but also to actually try to dictate a certain agenda," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
Oksana Yurynets, People's Deputy of the 8th convocation, Head of the Permanent Delegation of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (2018-2019), believes that this summit shows that after the full-scale invasion of russia into Ukraine, NATO itself is changing.
"In the work of the Parliamentary Assembly, such heredity was constantly observed. It is important, it is necessary. Because today we understand that we are working on the format that is already clear to everyone. What is the Parliamentary Assembly? This is Rammstein. That is, we had three Ramsteins already with 50+ participants, and, in fact, 53 participants of the Parliamentary Assembly proved it. Why is this important? Because in reality, this is a historic summit in Madrid. This is actually good work of inter-parliamentary and parliamentary diplomacy. Because the ratification of any agreements of such organizations, which already actually understands that in fact, everything has changed in terms of the security system during these 70 years after the Second World War, the creation of the UN, and the creation of NATO. And this year, it is necessary to react very quickly and adequately. And I would emphasize that in fact there is no longer a transformation and any demands on Ukraine, but Ukraine is showing its rapid changes, its adaptability, its ability to learn quickly", Oksana Yurynets said.
According to her, in the format of protecting our national interests, we have clearly shown that Ukraine is capable, that today it is a contributor to security. That is why in Madrid they talked more about reforming NATO than about any demands on Ukraine. She believes that such events, which are currently taking place in Ukraine, are very unifying. They help leaders to see the reality. However, for Ukrainians, this is happening now, of course, at a very high cost.
"In Ukraine itself, NATO's support is unquestionable. Both the accession to the European Union and the accession to NATO. Therefore, we have the format of Euro-Atlantic integration, in fact, everywhere. To any changes, reforms, and transformation in the country, we can add "In continuation of Euro-Atlantic integration in Ukraine", Oksana Yurynets said.
In particular, in her opinion, the decision to strengthen the Alliance from 40,000 to 300,000 military personnel and equipment is important. In addition, out of 6 countries with Enhanced Opportunities Programs, which included Ukraine, Georgia, Jordan, Australia, Finland, and Sweden, the last two will become NATO members this year. That is, the ratification processes were accelerated, in particular, Turkey's reservations in this regard were overcome. So, in her opinion, NATO is currently proving that it can quickly react and change, remove any angles of inconsistency and move in the direction of strengthening.
"It must be clearly understood that I am in favor of such negotiations when russia wants to capitulate and, accordingly, takes certain positions for itself in terms of apologies, in terms of restructuring and payments of those debts it incurred for the destruction of a large territory of Ukraine, for the fact that that it actually exterminates Ukrainians in a genocidal manner and takes them out of the territory of Ukraine, seizing and militarizing the territories. That is, if it comes and apologizes, of course, we will then understand how we will receive reparations, and how and in how many years this guilt will be over. I don't see it in any other way," Oksana Yurynets said.
According to her, this format of the coalition both in Ramstein and in the Parliamentary Assembly is very similar to what happened during the Second World War, when it was clear who was for and who was against. In particular, the historical lendlease.
"Ukraine today does not even need courage, but something very simple—for NATO member countries to help Ukraine protect them. After Lithuania, Norway began to show its courage today—it also blocked the transit of economic goods. That is, we understand how certain economic or national patriotism or pragmatism of other states shows an unwillingness to be on the side of the aggressor. And, actually, the acceptance of this side—are you for or against, are you complicit in crimes or are you the one who stands on the side of democracy—is very clearly outlined. Therefore, the third Rammstein is not 47 participating countries, but more than 50", Oksana Yurynets said.
In her opinion, after the victory, we should very quickly use the window of opportunity and become a member of NATO. Therefore, politicians and civil society should ask the relevant questions and tell what Ukraine has already done, and has already done a lot. And mass support for joining NATO among citizens is one of the key factors that force the authorities to move the state in this direction.
Yegor Chernev, People's Deputy, Head of the Permanent Delegation of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, notes that no one expected any breakthrough decisions at this summit. After all, all such decisions are prepared in advance, they are dictated by the consensus of countries that gather at the summit in order to formally put it on paper with their decision.
"We understand that despite all our aspirations and all our desires to become a member of NATO today, the first thing that prevents us is war. The member countries of the Alliance, the Alliance itself confirms their open-door policy and that they will support our accession to NATO, but these breakthrough decisions regarding the provision of a MAP (Membership Action Plan) or some specific list for us to fulfill some conditions in order to become a member of NATO, was not expected and could not be accepted at this summit. Therefore, today it is such in-depth cooperation, it is helpfin non-lethal weapons from the Alliance and heavy weapons from the member countries of the Alliance, it is strengthening, in fact, of the Alliance itself, a review of the security situation and response to challenges from the russian federation. That is, this summit was not for Ukraine, but about Ukraine, let's say so, because first of all, it was about the war in Ukraine, the aggression of the russian federation, and the change of the paradigm of the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic space", Yegor Chernev. said
According to him, the 30 years when russia lulled the attention and reaction of NATO are over, and it has returned to its real face, as it was during the Soviet times and during the Cold War.
"And today, the Alliance is changing its attitude towards the russian federation, and this was the trigger for the strengthening of the Eastern flank, the increase of the rapid response forces by 7.5 times, the increase of the defense budgets of the countries, the increase of defense expenditures, and the increase of the use of the latest technologies. The new Concept states that cyberspace is already the space where aggression against member states can be recognized. That is, all this, on the one hand, helps us in countering the russian federation. And on the other hand, it says that a decision was made at this summit and in Rammstein for a reason about maximum assistance to Ukraine in the fight against the russian federation, repelling aggression to the end, until our victory. Both in humanitarian terms and economic terms. And now it has been confirmed, we have now received an increase in trust funds and financing of these trust funds to $300 million, Biden has announced the provision of new heavy weapons to us. These are the manifestations of the fact that approaches to interaction with the Russian Federation have fundamentally changed. They began to change in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and today have changed diametrically—from a partner to a threat. And now NATO will already be developing plans to counter the russian federation, i.e., plans for a possible invasion or a possible combat real clash between the russian federation and NATO member countries," Yegor Chernev said.
He also explained how NATO interacts with partner countries through trust funds. These funds are saturated with money that can be used for specific targeted programs. We had programs for training our military, demining, rehabilitation, and countering cyberattacks. He assumes that the increased trust fund of Ukraine will be directed mainly to non-lethal aid.
According to Oksana Yurynets, the two countries that will complement NATO will become stronger, and, therefore, will have more opportunities to help us. Also, she does not believe that their joining could become an even greater escalation of the situation.
Yegor Chernev says there will be no military response to the two new members of the Alliance from the russian federation because they do not have the strength and means to open a second front, especially against NATO countries. And the window of opportunity for Finland and Sweden was opened precisely by Ukraine and precisely by the destruction of a large number of eussian equipment and personnel, because in the opposite situation, the answer from russia could be exactly that. In addition, the Baltic Sea will now actually be under the control of the Alliance, and now 7 out of 9 Arctic countries will be part of NATO—that is, the level of russian provocations in these spaces will also decrease. He also notes that it will also be positive for Ukraine because it is +1,300 km of russia's border with NATO, where russia will be forced to transfer some military forces, which will disperse their front-line forces on our territory. And this geopolitical strategic defeat of russia will cost putin his reputation even among authoritarian countries and play against their plans to redistribute the world. He also emphasizes that when russia can't react, it downplays the significance that can be seen now in the rhetoric of NATO enlargement by two countries.
NATO's Strategic Concept mentions that China's ambitions and policies are a threat to the Alliance's values and security, and their deepening partnership with russia can undermine world security. What does this mean for Ukraine?
According to Yegor Chernev, China approaches everything very strategically, and has plans for its actions for years, based on its own interests. What is happening today is not so important for China, it looks at it as a bystander.
"We must understand that China will not take sides now, it will maneuver. It understands that by supporting the russian federation, it may run into sanctions. It understands that pushing the russian federation away, it may be left without cheap resources, and it also has territorial plans for Siberia," Yegor Chernev said.
According to Oksana Yurynets, China, always relying on its national interests, has an expansionist policy in its doctrine, which is, let's say, "hugging countries", being soft and diplomatic.
"We are a country that, let's be honest, in this period of time does not have time and opportunity to take offense at someone, do something in some way of such offense and keep it for a long time. We must quickly learn to use all opportunities, chances, and situations that arise. We should only always look out for our own interests. And China is for us an example," Oksana Yurynets said.
What tools does NATO have in order to prevent the final annexation of Belarus by Russia? Is there a need for Ukraine to build cooperation with the Belarusian opposition or society?
According to Yegor Chernev, Lukashenka is currently a hostage of the situation into which he drove himself and his country. Perhaps now he faces the choice of even physical massacre and the start of a military operation. Because the start of the military operation on the territory of Ukraine has already been postponed several times. In particular, because of the risk that a demoralized and ill-prepared army will return with weapons in hand against the Lukashenka regime.
"We cooperate with the opposition, but, unfortunately, this opposition is in exile. Unfortunately, it is not located in Belarus and has such an indirect influence on Belarus. Indeed, there is much less support for the war in Ukraine than in the russian federation. And indeed, the army is demoralized there, but the order can still be given by Lukashenka if he is pressed against the wall. And now, as I understand it, this is precisely what putin is doing," Yegor Chernev said.
According to Oksana Yurynets, the annexation of Belarus by russia has already taken place, and it is difficult for the fragmented opposition in exile to do anything. And in view of what was done in 2020, it is very difficult to count on internal processes in the country.
"Moreover, I am sure that even the attacks on Ukraine by Belarus were made in order for Ukraine to start doing something on the territory of Belarus. Ukraine, having learned for 8 years to conduct a deterrent war, which is very expensive and exhausting for itself, still does not do this and does not resort to provocations. Therefore, it is in today's format that there is a great danger because in fact, the de facto border is absolutely as dangerous from the side of Belarus as we have from the side of the russian federation. And in this context, it only strengthens our caution," Oksana Yurynets said.
She also suggests that even after our victory, a war may start in Belarus, or the russian federation will keep an eye on Kazakhstan.
Can Ukraine be safe without NATO membership? Do we have a chance to become a member without the MAP mechanism?
"I think today the only option to be safe is membership in NATO. Because even if we have some guarantees from powerful countries, they are still NATO members, and this will somehow lead to NATO's participation in some military actions. As for whether we can get it, I think that the example of Sweden and Finland shows us that anything is possible. I think that it will still not be without the MAP, but still with some specific list of what Ukraine should do. We understand that we have some homework to do. But this homework and membership prospects will be discussed after our victory. Because until then, we understand, no country will vote to accept a new member with a war in their country," Yegor Chernev said.
"Yes, the security of Ukraine is in the Euro-Atlantic space, despite any other independent security associations, such as Poland, Ukraine, and Britain. But yes, there are examples and Ukraine can become a member of NATO without a MAP, that is, this is the format of that. I think it will definitely happen immediately after the victory. And as of now, we, as a contributor to security on the Eastern flank and a contributor to security for NATO member countries, I believe, should do everything to regain our occupied territories. And to show that today Ukraine is a country that protects and is, maybe not de jure, but de facto a NATO member country that provides this security", Oksana Yurynets said.
In the end, OPORA's senior analyst Oleksandr Kliuzhev also proposed to consider putin as the self-proclaimed president of russia, just as this definition is used for Lukashenka: "We often talk about the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, which is true, since no one elected him. But I am promoting the opinion that we should apply the same approach to the president of the russian federation. Because there have been no elections in russia for a long time. And it is a great honor for him to be called the president as if he is a colleague of those leaders who were elected in an honest democratic way. His power was obtained illegally. And probably this is also the reason for this aggression he committed."