Having compared an approximate number of voters registered in special election precincts established in penitentiary institutions in Dnipropetrovsk, we saw that it has increased since the last presidential campaign. The approximate number of voters in almost every penitentiary institution in Dnipropetrovsk oblast has increased in 15-20%, compared to 2014 Presidential election campaign. Such rapid growth for a short period (4 months) made us think that the number of voters will also change in other polling stations. To research the nature of such changes, we compared the number of voters registered for Presidential and Parliamentary election campaigns in 2014.
We analyzed how the number of voters registered in regular polling stations of Dnipropetrovsk oblast has changed. From early Presidential elections to early Parliamentary elections, the average number of voters has increased on 45,780 persons. This number is almost equal to the number of voters living in such raions as Apostolivskyi or Pavlohradskyi, or in cities like Pershotravensk or Zhovti Vody.
For the analysis, we used the data published on the official web site of the CEC. Andministrative boundaries were taken from the portal GADM[gadm.org]. We used the programming language R for analytical calculations, and the QGIS geoinformation system to create cartograms. As long as district boundaries were changed from campaign to campaign, we used administrative boundaries of raions and cities of oblast significance as the basis for research.
Only regular polling stations were included in the calculation. The data on special polling stations, particularly penitentiary, will be published in a separate article.
As long as the GADM portal doesn't display the boundaries of cities Vilnohirks, Pershotravensk, and Ternivka, we added these cities to the corresponding administrative raions: Verhhodniprovskyi (city of Vilnohirsk), Pavlohradskyi (city of Ternivka), and Petropavlivskyi (city of Pershotravensk).
According to the CEC, 2,608,542 voters were registered in total on regular polling stations for 2014 presidential elections. The total number of voters registered in regular polling stations for parliamentary elections is 2,654,322. Thus, during the period from early presidential election to early parliamentary elections, the number of voters registered in Dnipropetrovsk oblast has increased on 45,780 persons (1,76% of the total number of voters registered for elections of the President of Ukraine). The table provides detailed information on how the number of voters has changed in Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The percentage was calculated on the basis of the total number of voters registered for elections of the President of Ukraine.
|
Administrative unit
|
Number of voters (presidential election)
|
Number of voters (parliamentary elections)
|
Change
|
Comparative change, %
|
|
Apostolivskyi
|
47,005
|
48,228
|
1,223
|
2.6
|
|
city of Dniprodzerzhynsk
|
191,810
|
194,671
|
2,861
|
1.49
|
|
city of Dnipropetrovsk
|
790,709
|
804,319
|
13,610
|
1.72
|
|
Dnipropetrovskyi
|
66,226
|
66,432
|
206
|
0.31
|
|
Yuriivskyi
|
10,481
|
10,687
|
206
|
1.97
|
|
Krynychanskyi
|
28,572
|
29,130
|
558
|
1.95
|
|
Kryvorizhkyi
|
32,892
|
33,400
|
508
|
1.54
|
|
city of Kryvyi Rih
|
520,726
|
532,158
|
11,432
|
2.2
|
|
Mahdalynivskyi
|
25,613
|
25,733
|
120
|
0.47
|
|
city of Marhanets
|
36,536
|
37,121
|
585
|
1.6
|
|
Mezhivskyi
|
19,418
|
18,697
|
-721
|
-3.71
|
|
city of Nikopol
|
103,807
|
106,600
|
2,793
|
2.69
|
|
Nikopolskyi
|
31,699
|
32,575
|
876
|
2.76
|
|
city of Novomoskovsk
|
55,048
|
56,124
|
1,076
|
1.95
|
|
Novomoskovskyi
|
57,075
|
58,903
|
1,828
|
3.2
|
|
city of Ordzhonikidze
|
32,820
|
33,640
|
820
|
2.5
|
|
city of Pavlohrad
|
90,913
|
92,276
|
1,363
|
1.5
|
|
Pavlohradskyi
|
45,133
|
46,162
|
1,029
|
2.28
|
|
city of Pershotravensk
|
44,923
|
45,898
|
975
|
2.17
|
|
Petrykivskyi
|
20,138
|
20,400
|
262
|
1.3
|
|
Piatykhatskyi
|
33,101
|
33,841
|
740
|
2.24
|
|
Pokrovskyi
|
29,631
|
29,624
|
-7
|
-0.02
|
|
Shyrokivskyi
|
22,857
|
23,365
|
508
|
2.22
|
|
Sofiivskyi
|
19,471
|
19,642
|
171
|
0.88
|
|
Solonianskyi
|
30,017
|
30,197
|
180
|
0.6
|
|
city of Synelnykove
|
25,445
|
25,646
|
201
|
0.79
|
|
Synelnykivskyi
|
29,213
|
29,587
|
374
|
1.28
|
|
Tomakivskyi
|
21,124
|
21,239
|
115
|
0.54
|
|
Tsarychanskyi
|
22,039
|
22,278
|
239
|
1.08
|
|
Vasylkivskyi
|
24,979
|
25,338
|
359
|
1.44
|
|
Verkhodniprovskyi
|
58,484
|
59,112
|
628
|
1.07
|
|
city of Zhovti Vody
|
40,637
|
41,299
|
662
|
1.63
|
The cartogram illustrating the change in the number of voters is based on the calculations given above. The comparative change of the number of voters was used to the data display (the last column of the table).
In general, the approximate number of voters has increased in almost all administrative units of Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The number of voters decreased only in Mezhivskyi and Pokrovskyi raions. We should also mention that both raions are adjacent to Donetsk obalst. The increase of 45,780 voters is almost equal to the number of voters living in such raions as Apostolivskyi or Pavlohradskyi. or in cities like Pershotravensk or Zhovti Vody. The largest growth of the number of voters was noticed in industrial densely populated raions, where most of enterprises are owned by oligarch clans, related to the previous government. Many officials of such political forces are nominated by party lists of the Opposition Bloc. Thus, we have all reasons to expect the misuse of administrative resources in Dnipropetrovsk oblast during 2014 parliamentary election campaign.
Starting from September 2014, Civil Network OPORA conducts a large-scale observation of special parliamentary elections in Ukraine. The organization will attract 213 long-term observers in every region of Ukraine to monitor the campaign from its official start to announcement of the final election results. On the Election Day on May 26, more than 2,000 activists will join them to conduct statistically-based parallel vote tabulation.