Presidential Election: voting results by the type of polling stations in Ukraine 11 June 2014

To conduct the research, we used the data from the Central Election Commission's website (section "election results"). We also used the programming language R for analytical processing. To create tables of summarized values by types of polling stations, we used the PLYR package. Graphics were created with the help of basic functions of the R.

The polling stations were divided into:

1. "Regular" - polling stations in settlements, military units, overseas polling stations, ship registration locations etc. - 28,095 precincts;
2. "Medical" - polling stations in medical and social rehabilitation institutions - 959 polling stations;
3. "Penitentiary" - pretrial detention isolators and penal institutions - 159 polling stations.

The general number of polling stations, where elections were conducted, is 29,213 (including overseas electoral district). In general, 18,019,455 citizens participated in the voting process. This number includes 17,846,806 persons (99.04 %) who voted at regular polls; 85,203 (0.47 %) - on medical polls; and 87,446 (0.49 %) - on penitentiary. We didn't include the polling stations, where elections were considered void. Firstly, results of these polling stations do not influence the final election results. Secondly, we are interested in all recorded voting of citizens. Similarly to the previous research, the main object of this one became too high support of Yuliia Tymoshenko at polling stations, located in penitentiary or law-enforcement institutions.

To investigate this issue, we created a table of electoral support given to Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko at different types of polling stations:

It could be depicted graphically in the following way:

[Percentage of received votes; blue – regular; red – medical; green – penitentiary; left column – Poroshenko; right column – Tymoshenko]

As we can see from the abovementioned data, electoral support of Ms. Tymoshenko in penitentiary institutions considerably differs from national results.

To compare such "unique" electoral moods at penitentiary polling stations, we compared the percentage of votes given for every presidential candidate. This comparison was made to see differences (or similarities) in voting for every separate candidate at regular, medical, and penitentiary precincts. On the basis of calculated percentage of votes given for every candidate at the certain type of polling stations, we created a diagram of candidates' electoral support:

[Percentage of received votes; blue – regular; red – medical; green – penitentiary; from left to right: Bohomolets, Boiko, Hrynenko, Hrytsenko, Dobkin, Klymenko, Konovaliuk, Kuzmin, Kuibida, Liashko, Malomuzh, Poroshenko, Rabinovych, Saranov, Symonenko, Tymoshenko, Tihipko, Tiahnybok, Tsushko, Shkiriak, Yarosh]

As we can see from the diagram - there's a considerable difference in voting for candidates at the certain types of polls. However, only Yuliia Tymoshenko has significantly overstated percentage of voting at penitentiary polls, if compared to other types of stations. The numbers for the diagram given above are in the table:

If we count the total deficiency of votes at penitentiary polling stations in comparison to the regular ones, which were given for the most popular candidates, we'll receive the total number of the divergences. Thus, we've selected the most significant nominees for these elections: Hrytsenko, Dobkin, Liashko, Poroshenko, and Tihipko. The deficiency of votes given for these candidates and excess of votes for Tymoshenko looks like this:

Generally in Ukraine, Yuliia Tymoshenko has won the leader of the race (Petro Poroshenko) at 1,100 polling stations. 959 of them are regular ones (3.41 % of their total number), 39 – medical (4.07 %), and 102 – penitentiary (64.15 %). We haven't checked the margin and, therefore, there can be polls with one vote advantage. The regional division of these polls looks like this: