It doesn't mean that the opposition will win the general elections if it wins in Lviv oblast, but if it loses the elections in this region, it would mean that it will lose the elections in Ukraine. The same situation applies to the party in power, which will lose nothing, but will take everything if it wins.
Two opposition candidates - three common candidates
The status of a candidate from opposition in majoritarian district in Lviv oblast is worth its weight in gold. There is a general belief that the one who has this status immediately becomes the favorite to win the race, or even the premature winner if he's lucky with the district. Anyway, the history proves this belief to come true. In 2002, common candidates from the Our Ukraine triumphantly won in almost all (except one) districts in Lviv oblast. That's why political forces which identify themselves as oppositional all strive today to get the status of a candidate from opposition. The situation is worsened by a diverse and concurrent political situation in Lviv oblast, which has got representatives from 46 different parties in its local councils.
The status of a candidate from opposition in majoritarian district in Lviv oblast is worth its weight in gold
Most conflicts between representatives of opposition unions come from the variety of formats (Lviv DRC (the Dictatorship Resistance Committee), Central DRC, United opposition Motherland). Lviv DRC is the most active in the discussion over the opposition candidate. Members of DRC in Lviv endlessly emphasized that its necessary to choose a candidate from the opposition on the local level till there are no new candidates from Kyiv.
A month after the VRU adopted the election legislation, representatives of DRC in Lviv assured, that they have almost decided which candidate from opposition in majoritarian districts to choose and are ready to finish this process, however, under the condition that there will be no other candidacies from Kyiv. Of course, some candidates from Kyiv have appeared a little later. It became obvious that the conflict is inevitable after All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland, Front for Change and All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda had signed the Cooperation agreement for the election period (so-called "Trilateral agreement"), which didn't formally include other members of DRC, although they received post factum invitation to join it. The other parties in opposition have signed their own "8-party agreement" (Our Ukraine, People's Movement of Ukraine (Rukh), Ukrainian Party, Ukraine United, Ukrainian People's Party (UNP), Ukrainian Platform Sobor, Reforms and Order Party (PRP), Party of Motherland Defenders), which was supposed to show that the DRC - is not only three parties. At the same time, opposition parties immediately excluded members if they violated principles of the DRC. Thus, the Ukrainian People's Party was excluded from the DRC after its members in Oblast council failed to support giving a vote of non-confidence to the Mayor of Lviv oblast council Mykhailo Kostiuk
Representatives of DRC have definitely lost their patience after Arsenii Yatseniuk declared during his visit to Lviv that candidates from opposition have already been chosen and will be approved by the leaders of United opposition Motherland after they pass individual interviews in Kiev. Later on, the least prominent parties publicly accused opposition of monopolizing the DRC and usurping the opposition.
The confrontation had reached its peak, when Stepan Kubiv, the Head of oblast office of the Front for Change and oblast headquarters of United opposition Motherland, demonstratively left the meeting of DRC when he was accused of provocative behavior.
Considering all this, it seems to be impossible to choose candidates which would approve both Lviv and Central DRC as well as the United opposition Motherland. It was proved when All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland, Front for Change and Svoboda refused to sign "The procedure for determining a candidate for the MP of Ukraine from the oppositional forces of Lviv oblast" developed by the Lviv DRC. It seems, that the only alternative response to behind-the-scenes selection of candidates in Kyiv, will be behind-the-scenes selection of candidates in Lviv.
Who's the Boss?
All the influence over the election process in Lviv oblast is divided between the Party of Regions and All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda. However, they are not equal, since the Regions control local state government bodies, and Svoboda has power in representative bodies of local self-government of Lviv and Lviv local and oblast councils.
All Rayon state administrations (RSA) are controlled by the Party of Regions. Most heads of RSAs (15 of 20) are members of the Party of Regions. Although the Head of Lviv OSA Mykhailo Kostiuk (Director General of Ukrzaliznytsia in Tymoshenko's and Azarov's governments) is not formally a member of the Renaissance Party (Vidrodzhennia) and officially refused the membership in the Party of Regions, he publicly calls himself a President's Team Member.
No matter how hard the Lviv OSA tried to avoid any situations which would make people think it is sympathetic to the Party of Regions, it did happen. Mykhailo Yankovskyi, one of six deputy heads of Lviv OSA, have officially joined the ranks of the Party of Regions. Considering the authority of Mr. Yankovskyi, he is undoubtedly one of the most useful representatives of the Party of Regions in Lviv OSA. He is in charge of the Main Department of Internal Affairs, Press and Information of Regional State Administration, coordinates activity of Main Department of Ministry of Internal Affairs in Lviv oblast (where he was a chairman in 1997-1999) and oblast Department of Justice office, secures cooperation with political parties, NGOs, election commissions, MPs in the VR and deputies in local councils, judicial authorities and prosecution.
On 2010 elections to local councils, Svoboda managed to get a record number of MPs in councils of Lviv oblast (1035), which are now actively campaigning for the party. However, while in Lviv Tyahnybok's party members (Svoboda) feel like the rightful owners, they have worthy competitors like All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland (674 deputies), the Our Ukraine (526) and the Front for Change (353).
The party in power also has people in local councils of Lviv oblast, almost 600 deputies, which are members or were nominated from the Party of Regions, the People's party, the Strong Ukraine, the Renaissance party.
Parties at the start!
The Party of Regions has formally started its election campaign from Lviv and conducted here its first oblast campaign conference. It somehow reminds the tactic of Oleh Tiahnybok, who is most oftenly making campaign visits to Donetsk blast, one of the most unfavorable regions for him. The other things have little similarity.
The Party of Regions has formally started its election campaign from Lviv and conducted here it s first oblast campaign conference
Appointment of Roman Redko, the deputy of Kyiv oblast council, as a Chairman of oblast headquarters of the Party of Regions was the biggest surprise. He is said to have a great experience in campaigning. While the MP Petro Pysarchuk, which headed the election headquarters of the Party of Regions (PR), and the leader of party in oblast council Ihor Hryschuk - were both left behind.
Roman Redko, the chairman of oblast headquarters of the PR, gave a clear description of the future campaigning plan in Lviv oblast. The main tactic is creating the network of mini headquarters within every election district, which will be aimed at engaging voters on the territory. The other is massive dissemination of information about the Party, President, and Government activities. As we can see, Lviv oblast in on the initial stage of implementing the plan which is in full swing in other Ukrainian regions - using a network of people engaging citizens and popularization of President's social initiatives.
United opposition Motherland and All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda are trying to make the most of a situation caused by the adoption of the draft law "On the Principles of Language Policy" and mobilize own supporters. There are other activities like convening special sessions of the council, conducting perpetual pickets and organizing regular visits to the capital. Events in Lviv oblast council are moving similarly to those in the Verkhovna Rada. For example, MPs of the Front for Change (Stepan Kubiv) and People's Movement of Ukraine (Andrii Kornat) forcibly removed a leader of the PR faction (Ihor Hryshchuk) from the session hall during the consideration of the law on language policy.
Local offices of the UDAR party are moderately active in campaigning as well as in controversy around the determination of a main candidate. Yaroslav Hinka, the leader of UDAR in Lviv, gives rare comments on the resonant events. The virtual presence of Natalia Korolevska can be felt almost everywhere, but this is not enough for satisfaction the needs of local voters in direct communication with both the leader and with the regional team of Ukraine Forward.
Single-mandate districts: measure thrice and cut once
Lviv oblast has the same number of districts it had before - 4 in Lviv city and 8 in oblast. Thus, all fears of politicians and experts concerning possible abuses were in vain. Deputies of Lviv city and oblast councils sent appeals to the CEC, and deputies from UDAR eve proposed to boycott the elections to the Verkhovna Rada in case of the number of districts is reduced.
Although the district boundaries in Lviv oblast remained almost unchanged, in two cases they considerably simplified the life for two candidates. For example, Pustomyty rayon, in which a deputy of Oblast council and business partner of the Head of Lviv OSA Bohdan Dubnevych is engaging voters for a long time, was joined to the election district #118 in Lviv oblast. As a result, a candidate can win the elections in Lviv district after a successful campaign in the adjacent and predominantly rural area, because a number of voters in Pustomyty rayon is bigger than a number of voters in Lviv district. Another example is the district #120 (Horodok city is its center), from which was excluded Sambir city. The Head of Sambir Rayon State Administration Ivan Bilak (a potential candidate from the PR), which has some conflicts with the Sambir City council and is said to have appealed to the CEC asking to join the city with the neighbor district.
Self-nominated candidates are close to join the party in power
The list of potential candidates form the Party of Regions in single-mandate districts in Lviv oblast was not surprising. Quite predictably, most of them were selected from chairmen of State administrations and businessmen, but not from experienced regional politicians like MP Petro Pysarchuk, of former MP Oleksii Radzievskyi. It's still unclear who are those secret candidates from the party in power which expect to win the majority of votes in the district thanks to those classical confrontation of "one opposition" and "one pro-government" candidates.
Brothers Yaroslav and Bohdan Dubnevych - 'Grey Cardinals' of Lviv oblast are depicted by opposition politicians as typical candidates which are able to ruin plans of opposition to get their 130 seats in west and central oblasts of Ukraine. They are successful businessmen, well-known, with positive political image, don't belong nor to the party in power neither to the opposition, and can expect at least loyalty of the local administration.
The other formally independent candidate which chances to win a seat for the united opposition are weak - Taras Kozak (ex-Deputy Chairman of the State Customs Service of Ukraine). Tetiana Chornovil, a journalist of Livyi Bereg magazine is trying to compete with Taras Kozak. She openly presents herself as the one candidate from united opposition in district #120 (centered in Horodok city), and is virtually the only realizing a door-to-door campaign in Lviv oblast.
Calm before the storm
The Party of Regions will definitely fight for the seat in Drohobych rayon (dostrict #121), where the Minister of Justice Oleksandr Lavrynovych won in 1998, and local oligarch Petro Dyminskyi won in 2002. The official candidate from the party in power is Mykhailo Yankovskyi (Deputy Head of Lviv OSA). Nevertheless, there are other influential candidates which are still intended to run in this district. They are Mykhailo Sendak (the Head of Drohobych RSA, ex-Head of Lviv oblast council), and Lev Hrytsak (ex-Mayor of Truskavets city). Roman Ilyk, a Deputy head of oblast headquarters of United opposition Motherland, may compete with them in case he won't be included to the larty lists of the united opposition.
In the most remote mountain districts of Lviv oblast, which are included to the district #125 (centered in Staryi Sambir city), is forecasted an intense confrontation between Orest Furdychok, the MP of 3rd convocation from the Agrarian Party (now unaffiliated), and Andrii Lopushanskyi, ex-Deputy Head of the Board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, the MP of Ukraine of 5th convocation.
Petro Pysarchuk, the MP and Chairman of oblast office of the Party of Regions, which was seen by many sociologists as a candidate in Frankivsk district of Lviv city (#117) or in his native district #123 (centered in Peremyshliany), will stand as a candidate by the party list by the decision of local party members. This situation is obviously advantageous to the other MP, Taras Stetskiv, who will probably stand as the one candidate from opposition in district #117 in Lviv. Yurii Mykhalchyshyn, a young odious politician who is famous for his flaming speeches and loud appeals to Halychyna citizens "to throw out blue-ass band from Ukraine", by the forces of "Bandera army", will probably compete with Mr. Stetskiv. Iryna Farion, one of the leaders of Svoboda All-Ukrainian Union, who has a great chances to win according to sociologists, will likely run in Lviv district #116. However, many supporters of Svoboda, especially beyond Lviv, hope to see her name in the party lists. Dmytro Вobrodomov, a famous Lviv journalist (ZIK TV channel), is seriously intended to stand as a candidate in Lviv.
If Oleh Tiahnybok despite all forecasts will decide to run in majoritarian district, he will likely choose the district #119 (centered in Brody), where he managed to win Parliamentary elections twice (in 198 and 2002). In other way, this district is planned to be taken by Iryna Sekh, a deputy of oblast council and leader of oblast office of Svoboda.
The district #123 (centered in Peremyshliany city) remains the least competitive. The main potential candidates here are Taras Batenko (the Chairmen of the Board of Lviv Main oil pipeline "Druzhba") and the MP in two convocations Mykola Kovzel (Fatherland party). It's still unclear who of them will represent the united opposition.
In district #124 (centered in Sokal city) will stand the current MP from the Our Ukraine Volodymyr Viazivskyi, which competes for the right to be the one candidate, and maybe Stepan Kurpil (the MP and co-owner of the Vysokyi Zamok newspaper), if there will be no place in the party lists for him.
Thus, we can clearly see the arrangement of campaign in Lviv oblast long before the official campaign begins. Once again we have to witness the campaign with little ingenuity and innovation. Some candidates visit meetings as their routine job and continue encouraging citizens to actively fight against "criminal regime" with no enthusiasm. The other teach citizens how to see what doesn't exist- fundamental changes and significant improvements in their lives. Third, ask to forget about politics and promise never ending "bread and spectacle" if they get the access to the state budget. The greatest disappointment for Lviv citizens in this situation is that pre-electoral establishment of "Galician Piedmont" comes in the wake of these trends and doesn't offer a new style of politics or the content of election campaign despite the society needs it, and not in Lviv only.