SCENARIOS OF THE FIRST POST-WAR NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE: CONDITIONS, CHALLENGES, AND RECOMMENDATION

SUMMARY

Civil Network OPORA has made an analysis of three key scenarios for the preparation and conduct of national elections after the end of the war with Russia and the abolition of the legal regime of martial law.

The first scenario is the holding of national elections after the de-occupation of the territories of Ukraine seized by Russia since February, 24, 2022.

The second scenario involves de-occupation of all territories of Ukraine, including the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, and certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The third scenario describes the situation when Russia retains its illegal control over the territories it seized from February, 24, 2022 until present.

Regular elections of people's deputies of Ukraine are to be held on October, 29, 2023, but their timing and conditions will be contingent on the scenarios related to the full-scale aggression of Russia.

OPORA analyzed the conditions of elections in the context of the most obvious post-war problems and opportunities that will affect the life of the country, in general, and the organization of elections, in particular. Each post-war problem and opportunity has been assessed, depending on the most likely scenario. The approach also involves an assessment of the extent to which each post-war problem is characteristic of Ukraine as a whole, of the de-occupied territories, or of the affected territories.

Problems/opportunities have been localized in the following options: 1) Ukraine — problems typical for the entire country; 2) De-occupied territories — problems typical of de-occupied territories; 3) Affected territories — territories that either have been previously occupied or were in the front-line.

Upon analyzing post-war problems and their impact on the election process, OPORA provides basic recommendations on the management of challenges for the future election process.

This material is an aid to expert and political discussions on the preliminary preparation for the first national elections after the war with Russia is over. Such elections, apparently, can take place only after the end of hostilities and the established conditions for Ukraine's recovery. However, given the extraordinary challenges for society and the state caused by aggression, it is necessary to prepare in advance for the first post-war elections.

BASELINE FOR EACH SCENARIO

SCENARIO No. 1 “De-occupation of territories to the line of February, 23”

Brief description of the scenario

Following the counter-attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the occupying forces of Russia have left all the territories of Ukraine, which they have occupied since February, 24, 2022.
The central executive bodies and local self-government bodies managed to resume their activities in most of the liberated territories.
Hostilities of varying intensity continue on the administrative border with Crimea, in some sections of the state border with Russia, on the line of actual demarcation with CDDLO. The probability of resuming full-scale hostilities is high.
As a result of hostilities, the displacement of citizens from certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts continues, and the number of IDPs and refugees does not decrease dramatically.
Infrastructure, housing of citizens, roads and industrial facilities on the vacated territories are completely or partially destroyed, and some settlements are not fit for living.
Between the de-occupied territories and Crimea with the CDDLO, there is a de facto "grey" zone, where the full functioning of the authorities cannot be ensured.
The economic situation in Ukraine is difficult: budgetary resources are not sufficient but international institutions and foreign countries provide assistance for the recovery.
Russia is trying to politically destabilize the situation in the whole Ukraine and in the new front-line territories by spreading disinformation and covertly supporting pro-Russian politicians.

Scenario No. 2 “Complete de-occupation” (return of all territories)

Brief description of the scenario

Following counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian army and occupation administrations left all the territories of Ukraine.
The central authorities can resume their activities in the de-occupied territories.
Part of the population leaves the currently occupied territories due to hostilities or when disagreing with de-occupation.
Some refugees and IDPs are returning to the liberated territories.
Some combatants of Russia's armed formations and the ex-employees of its occupation administrations remain in the liberated territories.
As a result of the hostilities, the industrial potential, infrastructure and housing of citizens were destroyed or significantly affected.
Ukraine receives significant financial assistance from international institutions for the recovery of its territory.
As a result of the hostilities, the economic situation in Ukraine is difficult, and there are not enough financial resources to rebuild the infrastructure.

Alternative scenario tracks:

The de-occupation of the territory takes place without the conclusion of a peace agreement with Russia. There is a high probability that during a certain period the management of the de-occupied area will be undertaken through military and civil administrations.
The de-occupation of the territory takes place on the basis of a peace agreement with Russia. There is a possibility of introducing transitional management bodies of the deoccupied territories with an international component and/or introducing a special procedure of self-government in the deoccupied territories.

Scenario No. 3 "Freeze" (the aggressor state retains control over the territories seized after February, 24, 2022)

russia illegitimately controls a large part of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
There are full-scale hostilities on the entire contact line between Ukraine and Russia or fights of varying intensity. Battles may cease for a certain period, but the prospect of their recovery is incessant.
russia is launching missile attacks throughout Ukraine, continuing to destroy the country's infrastructure and industrial capacity.
The flow of new refugees and IDPs does not stop and is particularly large in the frontline territories.
The social and economic situation in Ukraine keeps deteriorating, and the volume of international assistance is unstable and depends on the political situation in Ukraine’s partner countries.

SHARED CHALLENGES FOR ALL SCENARIOS

Despite the differences between the scenarios, the general challenge for post-war elections will be to ensure the voting rights of internally displaced persons and refugees. Ukraine will constantly deal with new waves of refugees and IDPs in the process of de-occupationof territories or in the case of maintaining Russian control over the captured territories. The need to ensure the voting rights of these categories of citizens will impact the choice of the optimal electoral system. The current open-list proportional electoral system, although the most democratic, may be problematic due to large-scale relocation of voters to other regions and countries. Some election regions will receive excessive representation in the Parliament due to IDPs because the number of mandates distributed there depends on the voter turnout. Regardless of the developments, many voters who are members of the military will be on missions near the borders of Ukraine or at the lines of combat, which will require additional procedures to ensure their voting rights. For internally displaced persons, refugees and military voters, it will be necessary to provide access to electoral information at the level of legislation and practices. As to candidates, they should have the actual opportunity to campaign for these voters.

Following the disruption in the full-fledged administration of the State Register of Voters and large-scale relocation of citizens, Ukraine will require efforts to restore voter registration. In particular, we should conduct an independent audit of the State Voter Register after it resumes its operations. Obtaining proper documents by voters is a problem more typical for the currently occupied territories but it is also relevant for the country as a whole. As a result of large-scale internal displacement processes and a large number of refugees, election administration bodies will lose a significant part of professional staff, which will require the training of new competent employees.

Significant deterioration of socio-economic and financial situation, destruction of industrial and productive potentials, as well as unemployment are common factors for all the three scenarios. On the one hand, they will contribute to the spread of voter bribery in the settings of a significant deterioration of their material well-being. On the other hand, the government will have limited budgetary resources for elections. Moreover, the disrupted logistics will complicate the organization of voting. In the context of lacking resources, it is critical to establish efficient control over the use of budget funds and international donor assistance, including those targeted at the organization of elections. It is necessary to take into account the reduction of financial opportunities of citizens to support political parties, their local organizations and individual candidates. This circumstance indicates the need not only to maintain state funding of parties, but also to increase such support. Another important challenge for all scenarios is to restore and ensure high standards of state control over political and electoral finances. This will especially apply to the risks of financing candidates' election campaigns with criminal funds. The NAPC and the CEC will require additional human and financial resources to restore and strengthen control after an actual break in their activities in this area.

An important condition for the holding of democratic elections is the functioning of the media, which activities have been terminated in the currently occupied territories. Furthermore, because of financial issues and the legal regime of martial law, their operation has been complicated throughout Ukraine. This problem should be resolved through the inclusion of assistance to the Ukrainian media in the recovery program for Ukraine. It is also necessary to restore damaged and destroyed broadcasting infrastructure throughout the country before the start of the election process.

The issue of election safety and prevention of violations of public order during the voting is a priority for all scenarios. Illicit arms trafficking and the deterioration of the criminogenic situation will increase the risks of violent confrontations during the elections and, consequently, it will require special training programs for the National Police of Ukraine. Mine threat, threats of terrorist sabotage against election planners and other security challenges are certainly more typical for the affected territories but they will affect the organization of elections throughout the country.

Besides that, there will be a burning issue for all scenarios – to determine the period of nationwide elections after the end of the martial law regime. Different territories of Ukraine will be equally ready for democratic elections, and exclusion of some of them from the national election process will jeopardize the legitimacy of the voting. In these circumstances, Ukrainian legislation should contain detailed and holistic procedures for determining the impossibility of holding elections in certain territories. In addition, the electoral system for national elections should take into account the interests of internally mobile citizens as much as possible.

In any scenario, the government will face large-scale needs to restore electoral infrastructure, such as the voting premises, work of election commissions, and meetings with voters. The pertinent task will be to critically increase the inclusiveness of the election process for people with disabilities affected by Russian aggression.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NATIONAL POST-WAR ELECTION SCENARIOS

Depending on the scenario, the organization of the first elections following the abolition of the legal regime of martial law will have its own peculiarities.

Characteristics of Scenario No.2 (“Complete De-occupation”)

After the de-occupationof all the territories of Ukraine (scenario No.2), the key challenges will be about the political integration of the territories, the problems of transitional justice and lustration, the restoration of infrastructure and economic potential of the territories, counteraction to the residual manifestations of armed resistance and terrorism, providing citizens with the necessary documents and the return of deoccupied communities to the Ukrainian information space. Accordingly, overcoming the consequences of long-term occupation and conducting full political integration, lustration and transitional justice will be a key stage in the preparation for the first post-war elections in the de-occupied territories.

Under any de-occupation format, ex-combatants and employees of the Russian occupation administrations will remain in the liberated territories. This circumstance will require the state to start criminal prosecution of war criminals even before the start of the election process, to introduce transitional justice measures and lustrations, without which the election process can destabilize violent confrontations, lynchings, armed resistance of ex-combatants and attempts of war criminals and collaborators to run for elections. A serious problem can be about the deportation of Russian citizens illegally displaced from their territory to the occupied communities of Ukraine (primarily to Crimea).

After the de-occupation of all Ukrainian territory, the question of a transition period will arise, which may be seriously different from the usual order for the country. In particular, the use of military and/or military-civil administrations is a likely option. In the case of a political settlement of the conflict with Russia, the introduction of certain formats of governance with an international presence cannot be excluded. Regardless of the potential model of governance, its differences from other territories of Ukraine and the dire situation in the de-occupied territories themselves will entail the need to prepare them for the elections. The government will have to adequately assess the conditions for holding elections in the de-occupied territories and determine an adequate period for preparing the vote.

The electoral system for parliamentary elections after the de-occupationof the entire territory of Ukraine is a debatable issue. The current Electoral Code provides for the use of a proportional electoral system with voting for open electoral lists in regional election districts. This system is generally suitable, taking into account the possibility of voting in all regions of Ukraine. However, in the de-occupied territories, Ukrainian political parties have not functioned for a long time, and the system of open lists with personalized voting is quite contested and therefore problematic for the de-occupied territories. At the same time, in Ukraine as a whole, many voters will remain refugees and internally displaced persons. It will lead to excessive representation of certain regions in the parliament. As we can see, after the de-occupation, it is important to hold a broad discussion about the optimal electoral system for parliamentary elections.

Characteristics of scenario No. 1 ("De-occupation of territories to the state of February, 23)

The preparation of national elections after partial de-occupation will face such issues as political integration, lustration, and transitional justice. However, these tasks will be much less acute compared to the scenario of complete de-occupation. Preparations for the elections, as in the case of the de-occupation of all territories, will involve the restoration of the activities of authorities, the availability of basic services for citizens, and the reconstruction of infrastructure. However, this can be implemented more quickly than in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and Crimea.

Under this scenario, the issue of the electoral system in national elections will be less debatable, since before the full-scale aggression of Russia, the legislation already regulated the peculiarities of the application of the electoral system under the occupation of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol are included in the southern election region, and voters from Donetsk and Luhansk could vote in their election regions by temporarily changing the voting location without changing the electoral address. Despite this, the territories where it will be impossible to organize a vote after de-occupation to the line on February, 23, have not been defined. It contingent not only on the large-scale destruction of cities and villages by the Russian army, but also on the possible "grey" zone between the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian army. Apparently, in some of the liberated regions, there will be no minimum conditions for the organization of voting, in particular in the de-populated and mined territories. At the level of legislation, it will be necessary to determine clear criteria for the impossibility of voting.

A significant challenge for the organization and conduct of elections in the event of partial de-occupation of the territory will be the restoration of the affected territories. Without the reconstruction of infrastructure in many settlements, it will be impossible to conduct a vote. Given the persistence of the line of contact, there will be a high probability of resumption of hostilities in the frontline territories and, consequently, of the disruption of voting in certain communities. However, as a result of successful counter-attacks of the Armed Forces on the line of control of territories pre-February 24, Russia's ability to resume full-scale hostilities will not be high enough.

Characteristics of Scenario No. 3 (“Freeze”)

A key feature of this scenario is in the extremely high security risks for the electoral process that are associated with Russian aggression. If russia manages to keep control over a significant territory in 5 regions of Ukraine, it will provoke a risk for the resumption of full-scale hostilities at any stage of the election process. The risks of missile strikes will persist, which will require the maximum provision of civil protection shelters for election commission premises. The social and economic situation in the country will keep deteriorating, and the infrastructure for elections will suffer further destruction. In such conditions, the scale of internal displacement and the number of refugees will increase. Therefore, it will be necessary to ensure the right to vote for them. The suitability of the current open-list proportional representation electoral system will be questionable, since at least 5 electoral regions will not be able to conduct quality voting. Compared to other scenarios, the need for special procedures for IDPs and refugees will be significantly greater, given the impossibility of even partial return to their former places of residence.

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF POST-WAR PROBLEMS/OPPORTUNITIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE ELECTION PROCESS. PROBLEM MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS

Post-War Problems / Opportunities	Which scenario is most likely to face this problem?	problem localization	How does the problem affect elections?	Recommendations for Problem and Opportunity Management
Political
Citizens in the liberated territories need political integration.	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Citizens have no practice of participation in Ukrainian elections, or in activities of political parties Citizens do not know their rights and obligations during elections Citizens are not competent to work in election commissions	National and local elections are held after the full restoration of the activities of legal authorities, political parties, mass media, and non-governmental organizations in the de-occupied territories The State develops and implements programmes for the reintegration of citizens. The CEC and other state bodies implement information and awareness-raising campaigns for citizens, at the expense of state funds and donor resources CEC implements training programs for future members of election commissions before the election
Some citizens do not support de-occupation, pro-Russian sentiment is widespread.	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Citizens initiate illegal campaigns to disrupt the elections There are calls to ignore elections and absenteeism. Citizens refuse to participate in the organization of elections	The first post-war national and local elections are held after the full resumption of activities of government bodies, political parties and the media in the de-occupied territories Legislation on political parties contains restrictions on the activities of pro-Russian political forces CEC and non-governmental organizations implement mobilization campaigns for voters
The liberated territories require a special management procedure for the transition period	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Alternative scenarios: Elections are not held until the proper conditions are created and the normal order of governance is restored. Elections may be held without proper conditions (without taking into account the real situation)	The Verkhovna Rada determines the terms of post-war national elections in the de-occupied territories, which would allow to create proper conditions for voting The Verkhovna Rada determines criteria for transparent assessment of the readiness of territories for elections
Citizens independently initiate efforts to punish collaborators or there are clashes between citizens.	Scenarios No.1, 2	De-occupied territories	The election process and campaigning events are accompanied by violent clashes between citizens	Lustration and transitional justice events are taking place before the elections. Staff of the National Police of Ukraine undergo special training to prevent violent incidents and conflicts during mass gatherings and the election process
russia tries to support loyal political leaders and parties	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Citizens and political parties, which are supported by Russia, financially and in media, and participate in the election process	The state strengthens the transparency and accountability of party and electoral finances, in particular, it introduces effective control over the financing of parties and candidates by third parties Legislation on political parties contains safeguards against the functioning of pro-Russian parties
russia tries to support local loyal media and NGOs	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Some Ukrainian media and NGOs disseminate misinformation about elections and/or indirectly support pro-Russian candidates and parties	The legislation on media and public associations contains effective guarantees of transparency and accountability of their financing and expenses. Effective coordination with global access platforms to counter misinformation is ensured
legal
In the liberated territories, war crimes and other crimes must be investigated.	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	War criminals trying to run	Transitional justice and lustration events are held prior to national and local elections
Citizens do not have valid passports of citizens of Ukraine	Scenario No. 2	Ukraine	It is not possible to establish whether a citizen has the right to vote and to be elected. Data of the State Register of Voters are inaccurate (“dead souls”, mistakes, risks of double inclusion in voter lists) The SVR does not include citizens of Ukraine who have reached the age of 18 in the TOTs	There is an independent audit of the State Register of Voters Before the elections, the state implements measures to restore documents of citizens of Ukraine Elections may not take place before the expiry of a reasonable period set aside for the restoration of documents.
Citizens of Ukraine have passports of the Russian Federation	Scenarios No. 1,2	De-occupied territories	Does not affect the elections directly as Ukraine recognizes the passportization of rf citizens in the occupied territories as null and void	Introduction of a procedure whereby citizens can inform the authorities of the existence of a passport and declare the compelling nature of obtaining it
On the territory of the Russian Federation there are citizens of the Russian Federation who have been resettled from its regions.	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Citizens of Russia destabilize preparations for elections, and the resources of law-enforcement bodies are necessary to counter them	Legally and in compliance with the provisions of international law, the state regulates the procedure for deportation of Russian citizens who are illegally staying in the deoccupied territories
Former combatants of illegal formations or units of the Russian Army are on the territory of Ukraine	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	War criminals trying to escape Former combatants initiate violent provocative acts and terrorist attacks during the elections	Transitional justice measures are implemented prior to national and local elections The National Police takes action in advance to prepare and implement measures to ensure security and law and order during elections
On the territory of Ukraine, there are ex-employees of the former bodies of the occupation administration	Scenarios No.1,2	De-occupied territories	The electoral process is accompanied by conflicts over the candidacy of former employees of the occupation administrations.	Transitional justice and lustration measures are implemented prior to national and local elections
There are disputes over ownership of objects and property related to the period of occupation (for example, citizens declare the agreements on the sale of objects currently located in the TOTs as null and void, but the agreements have been enacted by Ukrainian notaries)	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	There are problems with authenticity of declarations submitted by candidates to election commissions during registration	The law regulates the resolution of property disputes in the de-occupied territories
It is necessary to legalize the income and property of citizens acquired during the occupation	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Undeclared funds are used to finance election campaigning of parties and candidates Criminal funds are used to finance campaign materials of parties and candidates	Prior to the elections, a campaign takes place to declare and legalize the income acquired during the occupation of the territory. The legislation contains efficient safeguards against the legalization of funds obtained by criminal means.
The issue of the existence or absence of proper conditions for the conduct of elections is not determined.	All Scenarios	Survivors	National and local elections are not held in territories where the proper conditions for their conduct are not available. If nationwide elections are not held in integral regions, it is impossible to adequately apply a proportional system with open lists and voting in electoral regions	The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopts legislation on the criteria for determining the possibility or impossibility of holding elections in specific territories The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine establishes the terms for the first post-war national elections, which would allow to hold elections on the whole territory of Ukraine In case of impossibility to conduct elections in some territories or in some regions, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine changes the electoral system for the first post-war elections (most likely — to a proportional system with closed lists)
Citizens are not competent in the current legislation.	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Voters and candidates massively violate electoral procedures Members of election commissions are neither competent nor trained to work	CEC implements comprehensive training of election commission members The CEC implements comprehensive information and voter education measures
It is necessary to restore registration services after a long absence of the authorities.	Scenario No. 2	Affected territories	Local political party organizations are not registered in the affected and de-occupied territories Business entities that provide goods and services to candidates, parties, and election commissions are not properly registered	Elections are held only after the activities of the authorities responsible for registration of parties, NGOs, media, and legal entities are resumed in the affected and de-occupied territories
Social and economic
Mass unemployment and low income of citizens	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Voters are vulnerable to bribery by candidates and political parties Candidates and parties use humanitarian aid to bribe voters	Employees of the National Police of Ukraine receive comprehensive training on combating voter bribery Responsibility for improper use of humanitarian aid are established. Social benefits in the de-occupied territories are restored before the elections
Absence or complication in paying social benefits	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Voters are vulnerable to bribery by candidates and political parties Candidates and parties use humanitarian aid to de facto bribe voters.
Destroyed industrial enterprises, production facilities and logistics	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Election commissions do not have adequate access to goods, materials and services necessary for the production of ballot papers and other aspects of the organization of voting	Prior to the election, the CEC shall analyze the availability of goods, materials, and services required for the conduct of voting Based on the analysis of the CEC, the state and foreign donors contribute to the provision of goods, materials and services to election commissions
Destroyed housing of citizens	Scenarios No. 1,2	Ukraine	Voters cannot vote at their place of permanent residence	The law allows the creation of additional polling stations at the place of temporary residence/accommodation of citizens The CEC and other state bodies implement information campaigns on temporary change of voting location without changing the electoral address
Demography
Existence of territories without actual population	All Scenarios	Affected territories	Inability to organize voting in certain territories	The CEC changes the boundaries and centers of electoral districts, based on the actual situation and the average estimated number of voters (depending on the electoral system) CEC reviews the number and boundaries of polling stations
Population instability and mass migrations between territories	All Scenarios	Ukraine	The official number of voters in a particular territory is not true to fact	The CEC, other state bodies, and non-governmental organizations are implementing information campaigns on the change of electoral address and temporary change of voting location
Return of refugees and IDPs to their places of permanent residence	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Voters do not know which polling station they belong to Some IDPs have previously changed their election addresses to other territories Some of the returnee voters live in temporary accommodation (because their houses were destroyed) Voter data (IDPs, refugees, residents of the former TOTs) in the SVR are outdated	The law allows the creation of additional polling stations in places of temporary accommodation of citizens Before the election day, voters have enough time to appeal to the State Election Administration bodies regarding the change of electoral address, temporary change of voting location, or clarification of personal data
Increase in the number of refugees	All Scenarios	Affected territories	A large part of voters are refugees and stay abroad permanently.	The law allows to create additional polling stations abroad, and the state has the resources to finance them. International organizations and foreign governments provide non-refundable financial assistance to Ukraine for the organization of refugee voting Electoral system does not discriminate against refugees in national elections, they vote on the same basis as voters in Ukraine The Electoral Code has been improved in terms of campaigning for voters abroad, ensuring their access to information and campaigning
Increase in the number of IDPs	All Scenarios		A significant part of voters on the election day are not at their official election address A large part of IDP voters stay in temporary accommodation The number of voters in some electoral districts is growing significantly	The legislation allows for the creation of additional polling stations in the areas of compact residence of internally displaced persons. The CEC and other government authorities are implementing information campaigns for IDPs on the options to change the electoral address, or temporarily change the voting location. The electoral system in the first post-war elections does not allow overrepresentation of regions in the parliament (it is possible to change the proportional electoral system with open lists in electoral regions to a proportional system with closed lists)
Infrastructures
Social, medical, educational and other infrastructure has been destroyed in the affected territories.	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Election commissions do not have polling stations Insufficient premises for campaigning events and meetings with candidates	Infrastructure is restored before the election process begins Election commissions and polling stations can be located in temporary buildings
Broadcasting infrastructure destroyed or dismantled by the occupier	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Voters do not have access to information about elections trhough Ukrainian TV and radio channels Candidates and political parties cannot campaign on TV and radio	Broadcasting infrastructure is being restored before the election process
There is no or limited Internet access	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Candidates and political parties cannot campaign on social networks and on the Internet Members of election commissions and candidates cannot use electronic document flow efficiently Voters cannot make contributions to electoral funds remotely It is virtually impossible to introduce electronic (remote) forms of reporting by electoral fund administrators	Internet access is restored before the election process begins
Ukrainian mobile and landline communication is completely or partially absent	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Voters and other electoral subjects cannot promptly report violations and incidents to law-enforcement bodies Candidates and members of election commissions cannot exchange information efficiently.	Mobile and landline communications are restored before the election process
Total or partial lack of electricity and gas supply	All Scenarios	Ukraine	There is no electricity supply at polling stations during the voting and the vote count, or meetings of election commissions, which disrupts the process and leads to tampering with the election documentation	Election commissions and polling stations provide backup power sources
Total or partial lack of water supply or its poor quality	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Many of the voters left their places of permanent residence due to lack of water supply and complicated sanitary and epidemiological situation	Water supply is restored before the election process
Destroyed motorways and railroad	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Election documentation is transported with significant delays, which creates conditions for tampering with it Candidates and political parties have problems with access to certain territories in electoral districts	The legislation provides effective control over the transportation of electoral documentation Election commissions should be provided with a sufficient amount of quality transport
Banking institutions are absent from the territory or their activities are limited	Scenarios No.1, 2	Affected territories	Candidates and local cells of political parties can't open accounts of electoral funds Business entities cannot legally provide services to electoral fund managers Voters cannot contribute to electoral funds Control over the expenses of election funds is complicated	By the beginning of the election process, banking institutions shall resume their activities in sufficient number to organize the elections.
Security related
Illicit arms trafficking	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Incidents involving the use of illegal weapons occur during campaigning and election events	Prior to the election process, law-enforcement bodies conduct campaigns to seize and voluntarily surrender illegal weapons Law-enforcement bodies are specially trained to prevent violent clashes during elections and have sufficient personnel and resources for enhanced protection of polling stations, election commissions and campaigning activities
High crime rate	All Scenarios	Ukraine	During the election process, candidates, voters, parties receive threats, campaigning events are accompanied by violent clashes	Law-enforcement bodies conduct special training on prevention of violent clashes during elections and have sufficient personnel and resources for enhanced protection of polling stations, election commissions and campaigning activities
Presence of armed resistance and terrorism in the de-occupied territories	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Remnants of illegal groups attack election commissions and campaigning activities, as well as intimidate voters	Electoral process shall be organized and conducted in de-occupied territories only after proper security conditions are created. The National Police of Ukraine and other law-enforcement bodies are implementing a plan to counteract security threats during the elections
Mined areas	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	It is impossible to ensure safe functioning of election commissions and polling stations in the mined territories When moving between territories, members of election commissions and candidates face a mine threat	Before the start of the election process, the territories where the voting will take place are cleared
Rocket and other shelling from the territory of Russia	Scenario No. 1,3	Ukraine	Election commissions and voting process may be suspended during air alert Voting rooms are not provided with bomb shelters	The premises of election commissions and polling stations are provided with bomb shelters, and the air alert system has been restored in all territories
Fighting takes place in certain territories or the probability of their recovery is high	Scenarios No. 1, 3	Affected territories	The election process in certain territories may stop following the resumption of hostilities	The law establishes procedures for the termination of the electoral process in certain territories and the criteria for the impossibility of organizing and holding elections
Shortage of local officers of the National Police of Ukraine and other law enforcement agencies	Scenarios No.1, 2	De-occupied territories	The number of law-enforcement officers is insufficient for proper protection of election commissions and polling stations and ensuring security during campaigning events	Territorial subdivisions of the National Police of Ukraine have been fully restored before the election A realistic plan for the involvement of National Police officers from other regions of Ukraine in the electoral process in the de-occupied territories has been developed and implemented
The need to deploy a large number of servicemen in the de-occupied and border areas	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Voters who are military personnel are outside settlements and regular polling stations	Special polling stations may be created for military voters
Critical infrastructure suffers cyber attacks from russia	All Scenarios	Ukraine	During the elections, critical infrastructure facilities are attacked, which hinders the work of CEC sites and election commissions, information systems of authorities, uninterrupted power supply of election commissions, etc.	Prior to the election process, the CEC and other authorities are auditing their preparedness to face cyberattacks and develop a plan to counteract them
Managerial
Restoration of the activities of the authorities in the territories	Scenarios No.1. 2	Affected territories	Government bodies/absent local self-government bodies (military-civil administrations) are short of staff and are not able to fulfill the powers to facilitate the organization and conduct of voting	Full-fledged activities of local authorities (military and civil administrations or other transitional bodies) are restored before the beginning of the election process
Shortage of personnel for territorial units of central and local authorities	Scenarios No.1, 2	Affected territories	In the conditions of dysfunctional activity of the authorities, the SVR cannot be properly updated and verified The powers of local authorities to facilitate the election process cannot be effectively fulfilled	Full-fledged activities of local authorities (military and civil administrations or other transitional bodies) are restored before the beginning of the election process
Resumption of the courts' activities	Scenarios No.1, 2	De-occupied territories	Electoral disputes are taken slowly, and the right to appeal for citizens is complicated in practice, in the context of the transfer of courts to stable territories	Courts have been restored in the de-occupied territories before the start of election process
Attempts by former employees of occupation administrations to occupy positions in legitimate authorities	Scenario No. 2	De-occupied territories	Presence of occupation administration staff among election organizers or candidates provokes violent confrontations	Lustration takes place before the beginning of the election process
The resources for the restoration of territories and budget programs are used uncontrolledly and corruptly.	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Due to inefficient and corrupt use of funds, there is a lack of financial resources for proper organization and conduct of national elections.	Before the start of the election process, the CEC strengthens control mechanisms over the use of budget funds by election commissions
Informative
Lack of editorial offices of Ukrainian media in the de-occupied territories	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	Information support of elections and election campaigning is not fully provided due to the absence of local media	The media receive state and donor assistance to resume their activities in the de-occupied territories before the election process
The media do not have enough resources to work and cover the elections	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Mass media do not have enough resources to cover the election and implement their own election projects Voters do not have full access to election information	The state and international donors provide support to the media for the implementation of balanced media projects about the elections
Russian media broadcast on the territory of Ukraine	Scenarios No. 1,2	Affected territories	The transmission of the illegal signal of Russian broadcasters allows the aggressor state to interfere in the course of elections and provide support to certain loyal candidates.	Prior to the election process, the state restores the infrastructure of Ukrainian broadcasting and creates technical capabilities to jam the illegal signal of the aggressor state's broadcasters
Russia tries to spread misinformation among the population	All Scenarios	Ukraine	Voters use false information about elections, and the election process is destabilized as a result of the spread of Russian disinformation	The CEC and the National Council for Television and Radio Broadcasting establish cooperation with global access platforms to counter misinformation
Money
Capacity of the state budget of Ukraine and local budgets are insufficient for holding elections	All Scenarios	Ukraine	The effort to organize the election process is insufficiently funded, which negatively affects the quality of election procedures and the motivation of citizens to work	The CEC and non-governmental organizations attract donor funds to finance training programs for election commission members, secure voting, inform voters, and create conditions for inclusive participation
International
Financial assistance from international institutions and foreign states is essential.	Scenarios No. 1,2	Ukraine	Sufficient financial assistance from international institutions and foreign governments allows to restore the country's infrastructure, which directly or indirectly affects the conditions of the elections	Ukraine's comprehensive reconstruction program takes into account the needs of post-war democratic elections