On June 27, the first public summit took place in Kyiv organized by the Civil Network OPORA on “Security Guarantees for Ukrainian Democracy in Times of War.” The objective is to become an expert forum for a high-level political dialogue about the future of Ukrainian democracy in wartime and about efficient means to gain victory. The event was attended by over 90 diplomats, Members of Parliament, and experts from international and national dedicated organizations and think tanks.

Following the open and closed parts of the event, Civil Network OPORA produced a policy brief describing the key points of the discussion, which were combined into seven thematic blocks: democracy, European integration, Ukraine's membership in NATO, social cohesion, security, and good governance, energy, fair play, and international justice. 

Key Findings 

  • Security agreements are not a substitute or a prerequisite for Euro-Atlantic integration, but they increase Ukraine's defense capabilities. Membership in NATO is the only guarantee of Ukraine's security. Political invitation to membership is possible during the war and remains one of the important priorities of Ukraine's foreign policy in the near future. 
  • Democratic institutions must function even during the full-scale war, albeit taking into account legal restrictions on rights and freedoms. The high-quality work of representative bodies and the systematic use of democratic decision-making mechanisms at the national and local levels should become the basis for the resilience of the state during the “long war”.
  • No one questions the legitimacy of the President and parliament. Democracy is not limited to elections. During the war, there is a need for further dialogue between different stakeholders. The voice of society should be heard, particularly through the participatory tools, inclusion of decision-making at different levels, and quality and systematic communication.
  • The situation at the frontline remains extremely difficult. Preservation of statehood is a priority for Ukraine. We need international military and financial assistance from our partners, as well as consolidation of efforts of the authorities and society. 
  • The support for the country's accession to the EU and NATO is growing in Ukrainian society. Ukraine should continue implementing European integration reforms, but this process must demonstrate the country's intentions to truly meet EU standards. However, there is a risk of regression in terms of democratic freedoms and the rule of law, which can offset other successful reforms. Therefore, proper public control is so important.
  • Targeted destruction of Ukraine's energy sector by Russia leads to disastrous consequences for Ukrainian society and economy. Ukraine needs timely and long-term support for the energy system and the protection of critical infrastructure. Insufficient protection of Ukraine's nuclear power plants in the context of a full-scale war creates a risk of humanitarian and environmental disaster in Europe. Protecting the energy sector should be one of the priorities of Western partners' policy towards Ukraine. 
  • The pledge of world security directly depends on the effective investigation of international crimes committed by the Russian political and military leadership, and holding it accountable by means of the tribunal for the crims of aggression.
Democracy

Despite the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has been, is and will remain a democratic state. Democratic processes are important and necessary, and they cannot be curtailed even during martial law. Nevertheless, the current restrictions are justified.

Holding elections in Ukraine is currently not possible due to Russian aggression, but none of the event participants questions the legitimacy of the President and parliament. Volodymyr Zelensky remains the legitimate head of state and will exercise his powers until a new president is elected by the Ukrainians no later than 6 months after the end of the legal regime of martial law. In case the term of office of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expires during the period of martial law or state of emergency, its powers shall be extended until the day of the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine elected after the abolition of martial law or state of emergency.

The organization of the electoral process requires adequate security and provides for the creation of conditions for free political campaigning, which is not possible during the full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.

Participants say that the essence of democracy is not limited to elections because the formal electoral process takes place in countries with a clearly authoritarian and undemocratic structure (Russia, the DPRK, etc.). Experts believe that democracy is a much broader concept than holding elections. It includes independent political institutions, strong local self-government, freedom of speech, control by the non-governmental sector and honest public dialogue, which is even more urgently needed by citizens in times of war.

During the war, the need to deepen the dialogue between various stakeholders becomes more urgent. When the change of power through elections is not possible, the voice of society must be heard, including through participation tools, inclusiveness of decision-making at different levels, quality and systematic communication. In particular, the Parliament adopted laws necessary for an inclusive law-making process and direct participation of citizens in local self-government. On May 9, 2024, the draft law No.7283 on democracy at the level of local self-government was adopted, and on June 20 — the law No.4254 on holding public consultations). 

The main task of reforms in Ukraine should be to strengthen democracy, which will bring Ukraine closer to the EU and NATO. The rule of law, good governance, and combating corruption are a shared task of the government and civil society. 

Ukraine's membership in NATO

Ukraine's accession to NATO is a strategic goal of our state. The participants emphasize that membership in the Alliance is the only absolute guarantee of Ukraine's security, as well as an integral prerequisite for stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Ukraine's "security agreements" with partners concluded in 2024 are an important step in formalizing relations, in particular in the process of transition to allied relations. At the same time, these agreements are neither an alternative to NATO membership nor a prerequisite for it, but rather an increase in Ukraine's defense capabilities. 

Experts emphasize that, unlike direct membership, the start of accession negotiations is possible in conditions of war — there is no legal or political reason not to agree on Ukraine's political invitation to the North Atlantic Alliance now. 

The war in Ukraine pushed the Alliance to reconsider its own defense capabilities, internal problems and, ultimately, to change its geopolitical strategy. Therefore, NATO must overcome the threat from the east through operational geostrategic expansion, because Ukraine does not have time for a long transformation period. 

At present, the allies do not have a unanimous position on Ukraine's membership in the Alliance in the short term. The summit participants highlight the importance of continuing diplomatic work to unblock Ukraine's political invitation to the Alliance, the implementation of security agreements, as well as the cooperation of civil society and the authorities in the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO. 

Experts also emphasized the importance of good governance in the security sector, civilian control, and transparency of defense institutions. At the same time, it was underscored that civilian control should be implemented through defined and understandable mechanisms, based on a professional analysis of the situation. Concerns were also expressed regarding the publication of all information on defense procurement, as the aggressor can use this data against Ukraine.

However, there are other areas of reform in the security sector that are consistently implemented in Ukraine: transparent mechanisms for job appointment and promotion, protection of the rights of military members, development of military medicine, attraction and development of human capital, etc. Ukraine must meet all the established standards for full membership in NATO, so the reform of the security and defense sector must continue. 

Security and good governance

During May 2024, Ukraine lost 400 km² of its territory (230 km² were lost in the Kharkiv direction). The situation at the frontline remains extremely difficult, and further just peace and reconstruction depend on the success of combat operations. The participants emphasize that the main task of Ukraine is to preserve its statehood.

Another challenge is the provision of human resources in various fields. The forced increase in the numbers of Ukrainian army personnel led to a fight for specialists, which directly affects the country's economy. Experts also mention that recruitment is not able to replace mobilization in a full-scale war.

Democracy is defined by adherence to procedures and proper public control, but the latter should not cover the conduct of hostilities. At the same time, the political leadership of the country should determine the goals of the war, while the fulfillment of the tasks assigned should fall within the competence of the military commanders.

Fighting corruption is one of Ukraine's key commitments to Western partners. In conditions of war, corruption undermines national security, trust of allies, and the cohesion of society. Therefore, the functioning of the anti-corruption infrastructure. such as NABU (National ⁠Anti-Corruption Bureau), SBI (State Bureau of Investigations), BES (Bureau of Economic Security), SAP (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office), and HACC (High Anti-Corruption Court) is extremely important. Digitalization can also be effective in reducing corruption risks. but the key element of the anti-corruption system should be the inevitability of punishment, not the number of anti-corruption bodies. The latter must undergo an independent audit and be accountable to society.

Participants also draw attention to the importance of synergy between civil society and the state in the effort to overcome corruption.

European integration

Participants emphasize the importance of continuing the reforms necessary for Ukraine's accession to the European Union, which is part of the political, economic and military security of our state. The idea of Ukraine's accession to the EU (as of January 2024, according to a study by the Razumkov Center, 84% of Ukrainians supported accession to the EU) currently has the highest level of support in the history of independence. 

Currently, Ukraine is going through a difficult but unique period. In world history, there are no countries that implemented a large package of reforms in the situation of a full-scale war, while trying to preserve the democratic governance of the state.

The participants of the event emphasize that it is not enough for the Parliament to adopt a formal number of laws, imitating the change. The reform process should demonstrate the state's intentions to truly meet the EU standards. At the same time, there is a danger of regression in terms of democratic freedoms and the rule of law, which can offset other successful reforms. 

In terms of the fundamental laws and values of the EU (Fundamentals), there are no specific directives that establish the level of the rule of law or the extent of functioning of political pluralism or civilian control. Fundamentals include five chapters of EU acquis (the judiciary and fundamental rights; justice, freedom and security; public procurement; statistics; financial control), as well as three separate blocks — economic criteria, the functioning of democratic institutions and public administration reform. Fundamentals take up more than half of the European Commission's opinion in 2023 on the opening of admission negotiations with Ukraine. That is why it is necessary to maintain a dialogue for policymaking in the context of the implementation of these fundamental components. 

Social cohesion 

The beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine was the period of the greatest social cohesion, but now the destructive trends in the interaction of various groups of society are intensifying, including through the enemy's disinformation and other hybrid campaigns. They concern, for example, the mobilization process and the difference in experience between those who currently live in Ukraine and those who were forced to leave our state. 

The development of Ukraine requires a strategy for the return and involvement in national political processes of those Ukrainians who left abroad after the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 

Another cohesion factor is a public trust to the state leadership. According to surveys of the Razumkov Center, in December 2023, 67.6% of the respondents trusted the President, and in June 2024 the number was 49.6%. Other government institutions, in particular, the parliament, have a lower level of support: according to the same polls, in December 2023, 27.6% of respondents did not trust the parliament, and in June 2024, this indicator reached 19.3%. This leads to a discussion of the idea of “rebooting power” and holding elections during a full-scale war. 

At the same time, the participants draw attention to the fact that civil society should focus on supporting the state, including through direct work in the authorities, since Ukraine is in dire need of qualified personnel in all spheres of public administration.

Energy Sector

For the stability of Ukraine and the preservation of human capital in the conditions of a full-scale war, the role of energy, especially nuclear energy, is crucial. However, nuclear power plants are vulnerable to disconnections from the energy system, which can lead to a humanitarian and environmental disaster, the consequences of which will be felt by Ukraine's western neighbors.

Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had 36 gigawatts of energy generating capacity. In the winter of 2023-2024, there were 18 gigawatts of generation, and since the beginning of the year, about 9 gigawatts have been lost due to Russian strikes. According to experts, the approach of winter and new Russian strikes at the energy sector may provoke a new wave of migration of Ukrainians to Europe. 

Over the past few years, support for Ukrainian refugees has cost partners about $46 billion. Instead, if these funds were invested in air defense and missile defense, the critical situation in the Ukrainian energy sector and mass migration abroad could be prevented.

That is why the participants call on allies to continue long-term support for the energy sector through the implementation of current programs and the search for new aid initiatives, as well as through the supply of air defense systems.

Justice and international justice

The acceleration of work on the pre-trial investigation of international crimes committed by Russians on the territory of Ukraine is the key to future global security. 

Establishing the special tribunal against the crime of aggression and the conviction of the highest military and political leadership of the Russian Federation will create a positive precedent of the inevitability of punishment for aggression against other independent and sovereign states. As a result, it will become a means of deterring possible plans to launch aggressive wars and encroach on the sovereignty of other states.

It is also extremely important to effectively investigate the proceedings against Vladimir Putin, Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, ex-Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov and other criminals at the International Criminal Court, as well as opening new proceedings and bringing them to the judicial stage.