Table of Contents

 
 
 

 

Russia's armed aggression forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes in search of security, either inside or outside the country. While the war continues, the pace of migration remains high. One of the key issues on the agenda today is the political reintegration of Ukrainian citizens who have found their temporary refuge abroad. The international community, host countries, and the Ukrainian government should create policies for the integration of Ukrainians into Ukraine’s recovery strategy and to involve them in the post-war socio-political life.

These processes are also a significant factor that will affect the ability of the state to properly organize legitimate post-war elections. For example, the electoral infrastructure has limited capacity, and if the number of voters in a particular region or state increases, it will need to be expanded. It is only with a proper assessment of the displacement dynamics that the state will be able to take efficient measures to ensure the voting rights for internally displaced Ukrainians.

OPORA resolved to study the information on the scale of such displacement, and compare reliable and relevant data used by the state of Ukraine and international institutions. We were interested in two categories of people: those who moved within the country, and those who went abroad. To this end, we have sent requests for information to a number of national public authorities. Substantive answers have been received only from the Ministry of Social Policy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. We also collected public data from international organizations that similarly assess the scale and geography of displacement, which allows us to understand the needs and challenges faced by Ukrainians, such as access to housing, health care, education, and work.

I. Forced Internal Displacement

Who are Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)?

Internally displaced persons are:

For more information on IDP status, please refer to OPORA's article “Internally Displaced Persons: How to Obtain IDP Status and Government Assistance”.

How Many Are They?

Upon OPORA's request, the Ministry of Social Policy reported that as of December, 12, 2022, 4,893,079 people have been registered as internally displaced persons in Ukraine, of which 1,093,821 are children (see the Table below for more information by regions). At the same time, the Ministry did not specify the number of adult persons. However, having conducted simple calculations, it can be established that they are 3,799,079.

Region

Persons

Children (persons under 18 years of age)

Vinnytsia Oblast

182,738

54,219

Volyn Oblast

60,160

18,028

Luhansk Oblast

277,700

18,875

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

442,323

99,032

Lviv Oblast

257,066

76,163

Donetsk Oblast

521,362

48,645

Poltava Oblast

222,452

51,154

Zhytomyr Oblast

111,220

32,677

Zakarpattia Oblast

156,478

53,477

Zaporizhia Oblast

201,337

41,616

Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast

145,678

46,320

Kyiv Oblast

341,406

85,917

Kirovohrad Oblast

97,110

26,496

Mykolaiv Oblast

111,896

29,693

Odesa Oblast

211,234

56,094

Rivne Oblast

62,081

18,098

Sumy Oblast

79,001

20,736

Ternopil Oblast

86,587

26,294

Kharkiv Oblast

444,322

77,762

Kherson Oblast

32,084

7,232

Khmelnytskyi Oblast

150,946

45,074

Cherkasy Oblast

162,033

45,845

Chernihiv Oblast

78,690

20,973

Chernivtsi Oblast

92,877

30,221

Kyiv

364,232

85,917

Sevastopol

42

12

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

24

7

Total

4,893,079

1,093,821

In the definition of national legislation, internally displaced persons can be any people, regardless of citizenship, who were forced to change their place of residence within the country. In other words, the number of IDPs in the data of the Ministry of Social Policy does not equal the number of displaced voters. In addition, the fact of internal displacement is confirmed by the IDP registration certificate. That is, people who did not register the status are not on record with state authorities. In this regard, it should be borne in mind that the response of the Ministry of Social Policy does not take into account a significant number of actual IDPs who, for various reasons, had not applied for official status to be registered.

ІІ. Forced Relocation Abroad

What is the status of Ukrainians abroad and how does it affect the calculation of their numbers?

After February, 24, 2022, many citizens left Ukraine because of the armed conflict. Taking into account the circumstances and depending on the national legislation of the host country, forcibly displaced citizens of Ukraine have a different status: from refugees to persons for whom a temporary or other similar protection mechanism has been applied. In some countries, such as the countries of the European Union (except for Denmark), the Implementing Decision (EU)⁠2022/382 of March 4, 2022, activated the Directive 2001/55/EC of July 20, 2001 on temporary protection for Ukrainians.

However, it should be borne in mind that some Ukrainians can stay abroad on a general basis, without using the tools of international legal status — as tourists or having a visa for other purposes. Understanding the existence of different statuses of protection for Ukrainians abroad is especially important when taking into account various figures of international organizations.

Refugees

According to the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees (hereinafter referred to as the “Geneva Convention”), the “refugee” status may be granted to persons who, as a result of a well-founded fear, have been the victims of persecution on the grounds of race, religion, nationality, citizenship (allegiance), membership in a particular social group or political views, and who stay outside the country of their citizenship and cannot enjoy the protection of that country, or who do not wish to enjoy this protection as a result of such fears. National legislation, for example, Ukrainian (paragraph 1 of Part 1 of Art.1 of the Law of Ukraine “On Refugees and Persons in Need of Subsidiary or Temporary Protection” of July, 8, 2011) and Polish (Part 1 of Art. 13 of the Law “On Granting Protection to Foreigners on the Territory of the Republic of Poland” of June, 13, 2003), contain similar definitions.

Asylum-seekers

Asylum-seekers are persons who have applied for asylum, but their application has not yet been considered. In other words, all refugees at the beginning of their journey are asylum seekers, but not every asylum seeker will become a refugee. In order for this to happen, it must be proven that the fear of persecution in their country is justified. Asylum seekers who do not qualify for refugee status can be protected under the “subsidiary protection” scheme. It is an opportunity to obtain asylum for those who do not have a well-founded fear of persecution (which is necessary to obtain a refugee status under the 1951 Convention) but do have a significant risk of being tortured or seriously harmed in the country of origin for reasons that include widespread violence, armed conflict, or systematic human rights violations.

For more information about these protection mechanisms, see OPORA's article “Refugee status vs temporary protection”. Given the international legal subtleties of understanding the status of “refugee” and “asylum seeker”, the generalization of all Ukrainians as persons with such status is incorrect in legal terms. However, on the website of The Operational Data Portal, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) uses the term “refugees” to refer to all Ukrainian people who were forced to leave Ukraine because of the war. For example, “refugees from Ukraine registered across Europe” and “refugees from Ukraine registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe”. At first, it may seem that we are talking about “refugees” as refugees, but, obviously, UNHCR uses this term in a broader sense — as displaced persons who were forced to leave their homes because of war or fear of attack or persecution, and went abroad. It can be confirmed by the data from the website of the British branch of this organization, where “refugees” are defined as people who fled from war, violence, conflict or persecution, and crossed the international border to find safety in another country. Oxford English Dictionary (“Someone driven from his home by war or the fear of attack or persecution; a displaced person”).

Persons in need of temporary protection

“Temporary protection”, for example in accordance with Council Directive 2001/55/EC of 20 July 2001 (hereinafter referred to as “the Directive”), means an exceptional procedure for ensuring, in the event of a massive or imminent mass influx of displaced persons from third countries who are unable to return to their country of origin, immediate temporary protection of such persons, especially if there is a risk that the asylum system will not be able to cope with such an influx without adverse consequences for its efficient functioning, the interests of the persons concerned, as well as other persons seeking protection.

On the other hand, “displaced persons” are third-country nationals or stateless persons who have been forced to leave their country or region of origin or who have been evacuated, such as in response to appeals from international organizations, and who cannot return in safety and security because of the situation prevailing in that country, and who are subject to Article 1A of the Geneva Convention or other international or national instruments providing international protection, in particular (i) persons who have fled areas of armed conflict or outbreak of violence.

With regard to this Directive, “temporary protection” is regulated in all EU countries except Denmark. For example, in Poland, under Part 1 of Art. 106 of the Law “On Granting Protection to Foreigners on the Territory of the Republic of Poland” of 13 June 2003, foreigners arriving in the Republic of Poland en masse and having left their country of origin or a certain geographical area due to foreign invasion, war, civil war, ethnic conflicts or gross violations of human rights may be granted temporary protection on the territory of the Republic of Poland, regardless of whether their arrival was spontaneous or resulted from assistance provided to them by the Republic of Poland or the international community. A similar approach to determining the grounds for obtaining temporary protection is used in other countries, including Ukraine. In addition, in some countries, special additional legislation was adopted to provide temporary protection to Ukrainians. For example, Poland adopted the Law “On assistance to citizens of Ukraine in connection with the armed conflict in the territory of this state” on March 12, 2022.

Thus, people who were forced to leave their homeland due to the war are subject to a temporary protection mechanism, which was mainly used by Ukrainian people in the EU countries.

However, Part 1 of Art. 3 of the Temporary Protection Directive does not preclude the recognition of refugee status in accordance with the Geneva Convention. At the same time, according to Art. 19, Member States may, at their discretion, provide that during the examination of applications for refugee status, temporary protection may not be granted at the same time as the status of the asylum-seeker. Member States shall ensure that a person who is entitled to or enjoys temporary protection shall continue to benefit from such protection until the end of the period for which it is granted, even if, on the basis of the examination of the application for asylum, that person is refused refugee status (other protection).

III. How are Ukrainians recorded abroad?

What information does the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (hereinafter — the MFA) have?

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as of February, 1, 2023, the total number of Ukrainian citizens abroad is almost 8 million (7,989,027) people. Of these, adult citizens of Ukraine count as 5.84 million (5,841,619) people. At the same time, 448,592 citizens of Ukraine were on a consular register, as of December, 12, 2022. Detailed data by country is shown in the Table below.

 

Country

The number of Ukrainian citizens abroad (as of 01.02.2023)

The number of citizens of Ukraine who are on a consular register (as of 12.12.2022)

Poland

1,786,000

67,000

Germany

1,200,000

101,416

USA

894,665

42,336

Czech Republic

631,705

no information available (not included in the response to the request)

Italy

400,023

No information

Canada

311,351

5,060

Spain

270,000

No information

Israel

220,000

No information

Hungary

175,500

7,195

Moldova

158,613

68,699

Slovakia

148,678

9,377

France

147,253

No information

United Kingdom

140,300

No information

Romania

126,165

931

Greece

100,942

No information

Austria

97,002

No information

Netherlands

95,000

No information

Portugal

87,250

No information

Estonia

74,980

5,503

Lithuania

61,487

36,874

Latvia

34,531

1,906

Georgia

31,398

No information

Other countries

796,184

102,295

Total

7,989,027

448,592

Such a difference in the data is related to the fact that the consular registration of Ukrainian citizens living outside Ukraine is mostly voluntary and optional (with a few exceptions). It should be noted that on December, 30, 2022, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved by Resolution No. 1487 the “Rules for Military Registration of Conscripts, Persons Subject to Military Service, and Reservists.” It established the obligation for conscripts, persons subject to military service, and reservists to be on military registration in case of departure from Ukraine for a period of more than three months — at the place of consular registration in foreign diplomatic institutions of Ukraine. However, there is currently no practice of applying this requirement. Therefore, it is impossible to assess its effectiveness. At the same time, consular records do not allow to establish the scale of external movement.

In the response of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the clarifying request, as in the previous one, there is no information on the number of Ukrainians who had been abroad before February, 24, 2022. Instead, for citizens of Ukraine who entered the host country and/or received temporary protection status or similar status after a full-scale invasion, statistics are provided only for those states where it is being maintained (see Table “Number of Citizens of Ukraine in the Host Country”). In view of this, it should be noted that the number of Ukrainian citizens who entered the host country after February, 24, 2022, does not allow assessing the dynamics of displacement, also because it does not take into account Ukrainians who returned to Ukraine or crossed the state border in both directions several times. At the same time, the statistics of persons who have received the appropriate protection status is incomplete, although to some extent it indicates that the dynamics of movement is significant. The countries maintaining the statistics alone, have about 1.5 million of such persons. That is why, according to these data, it is difficult to determine how much the number of potential voters abroad has increased.

 

Country

Number of citizens of Ukraine in the host country

 

Total citizens of Ukraine

Adult

The number of citizens of Ukraine who entered the host country after 24.02.2022

Number of Ukrainian citizens who received temporary protection status/ similar status in the host state after 24.02.2022

Austria

97,002

62,052

88,038

88,038

Belgium

62,657

41,666

62,657

62,657

Greece

100,942

81,182

77,258

21,202

Estonia

74,980

57,150

120,429

42,117

Spain

270,000

194,000

157,737

157,737

Luxemburg

4,372

3,268

4,372

4,372

Germany

1,200,000

900,000

1,037,741

statistics are not kept

Slovakia

148,678

89,457

948,654

102,996

Czech Republic

631,705

505,364

468,000

463,000

Sweden

50,793

35,025

statistics is not kept

50,793

Albania

2,663

1,769

32,747

28

United Kingdom

140,300

95,497

150,600

150,600

Iceland

2,695

1,756

2,238

2,238

Jordan

6,409

4,500

826

0

Canada

311,351

216,700

135,351

135,351

Qatar

1,689

 

300

0

Kuwait

652

496

22

0

Lebanon

5,500

3,300

4,258

0

Oman

2,247

1,892

2,287

0

Macedonia

6,433

5,275

25,630

350

Saudi Arabia

1,887

1,376

1,126

0

Serbia

6,639

5,800

139,807

1,174

USA

894,665

752,065

110,665

170,265

Thailand

6,808

5,987

2,905

0

Türkiye

28,732

 

575,714

statistics is not kept

Turkmenistan

309

272

54

0

Japan

4,002

3,457

2,193

2,081

Total:

4,064,110

3,069,306

4,151,609

1,454,999

Besides that, OPORA asked to clarify the methodology for calculating the number of temporarily displaced citizens of Ukraine outside the state, and to specify sources and ways of obtaining information about the total number of citizens abroad (either registered or not with the consular authorities) and the relevant statistical data. In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that: 1) it receives statistical reports, in the normal course of operations, from foreign diplomatic institutions of Ukraine; 2) in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On Access to Public Information", the methodology for calculating the number of displaced citizens of Ukraine outside Ukraine does not belong to public information. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also informed that current statistics on the number of temporarily displaced citizens of Ukraine abroad is accumulated from official sources of the UN member states on the open data portal of this international organization https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.

What information does the State Border Guard Service have (further referred to as the SBGS) have?

OPORA appealed to the State Border Guard Service to determine the volume of outflow of Ukrainians abroad after the full-scale invasion of Russia. Thus, the State Tax Service reported that from February, 24 to November, 30, 2022, 9.392 million facts of crossing the state border by adult citizens of Ukraine (18 years and older) outbound from Ukraine, and 8.726 million facts of entry into Ukraine were recorded at checkpoints. Accordingly, the difference between exits and entrances is 0.666 million crossings. We can assume that this is an approximate minimum figure by which the number of voters abroad has increased. However, this figure obviously does not correspond with the information published on the website of The Operational Data Portal, according to which the outflow is about 5 million people. Such a difference causes significant discrepancies in the assessment of the scale of displacement, and requires clarification of its causes.

The simple difference between entries and exits does not take into account a number of factors that significantly affect the calculation of the number of internally displaced persons from Ukraine. First of all, Ukrainian statistics do not take into account Ukrainian citizens who were temporarily occupied and forcibly moved to the territory of the aggressor state, and from there they sought refuge in other countries — the State Tax Service could not record their departure abroad. It is also known about the problems with documenting the mass movement of Ukrainians to neighboring countries in the first three weeks from the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion. Then, the State Tax Service could not technically cope with entering data into the integrated information and telecommunication system of border control "Gart". In addition, the aggregate data of crossings includes multiple border crossings by the same person, including those who left for permanent or temporary residence outside Ukraine before February, 24, 2022.

How does the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees calculate the number of Ukrainians abroad?

UNHCR is the leading organization dedicated to protecting the rights and welfare of refugees, asylum seekers and stateless persons worldwide. One of the key ways to implement the mandate of this organization is to collect, analyze, and disseminate data on the situation of the relevant population groups. UNHCR collects data on refugees in a variety of ways, including direct observation and measurement, sociological surveys, and analysis of secondary sources such as government statistics and other reports.

As of January, 24, 2023, according to UNHCR estimates, there are 7,996,000 Ukrainian refugees in Europe, of which 4,453,000 are registered in various national protection programs of European countries. These data are based on published information, or the data received from the authorities about the number of Ukrainian refugees in 46 European countries. However, the number of almost 8 million is far from reality, because it takes into account 2.9 million Ukrainians in Russia and Belarus. As of today, Ukraine does not know how many of its citizens stay on the territory of the aggressor countries. Furthermore, Ukraine cannot know how many of them left there voluntarily, and how many were forcibly deported by the occupation troops. UNHCR most likely receives this data directly from Russia and Belarus, because the number of Ukrainians with the status of displaced persons is equal to the number of Ukrainians who crossed the border with the aggressor state. Therefore, these data are even more questionable, especially given the response of the SBGS to OPORA's information request, where it was indicated that only 510 citizens of Ukraine crossed the Ukrainian-Russian and Ukrainian-Belarusian borders as of November, 30, 2022.

In this regard, it can be assumed that as of January, 24, 2023, according to UNHCR, there are 5,125,000 Ukrainians in Europe. The infographic depicts the dynamics of the number of Ukrainians who have found temporary shelter in European countries since August last year. Over time, this figure kept growing. While in mid-August, there were 4.4 million people, then, by the end of January, 2023, their number increased by 719,000.

Taking into account UNHCR data on 5,125,000 Ukrainians in Europe (excluding data from Russia and Belarus), the share of people who received temporary protection status in Europe is quite high — 96.7%. However, such a high figure is explained by the calculation methodology and limited access to data on the actual number of Ukrainians staying in European countries but not registered for temporary protection or other social assistance. With no available information from a number of European countries, UNHCR calculates the total number of refugees precisely by the number of registrations. According to the organization, the largest number of Ukrainians in search of temporary asylum stay in the Republic of Poland — 1.56 million, Germany — 1.02 million, and the Czech Republic — 483 thousand.

Table of the number of Ukrainians seeking temporary asylum in Europe:

Country

Data relevance

Ukrainians registered in national protection programs

Recorded number of Ukrainian IDPs

Poland

24.01.2023

1,563,386

1,563,386

Germany

22.11.2022

1,021,667

1,021,667

Czech Republic

22.01.2023

482,618

483,620

Italy

20.01.2023

169,306

169,306

Spain

24.01.2023

161,012

161,012

UK

16.01.2023

157,300

157,300

France

31.10.2022

118,994

118,994

Slovakia

24.01.2023

107,004

107,203

Romania

22.01.2023

109,413

106,835

Moldova

24.01.2023

Information missing

102,160

Türkiye

19.01.2023

Information missing

95,772

Austria

23.01.2023

92,019

92,019

The Netherlands

25.01.2023

85,210

85,210

Switzerland

20.01.2023

78,467

78,467

Lithuania

24.01.2023

73,292

73,292

Ireland

19.01.2023

71,819

72,232

Belgium

23.01.2023

65,979

66,717

Estonia

23.01.2023

42,342

66,372

Portugal

17.01.2023

57,109

57,109

Sweden

20.01.2023

51,029

51,029

Bulgaria

21.01.2023

151,332

50,219

Finland

23.01.2023

48,713

47,067

Denmark

22.01.2023

37,523

39,592

Norway

23.01.2023

37,971

37,971

Latvia

23.01.2023

45,085

35,338

Hungary

24.01.2023

33,603

33,603

Montenegro

23.01.2023

7,862

33,098

Georgia

24.01.2023

Information missing

25,101

Greece

06.12.2022

20,955

20,955

Croatia

20.01.2023

20,377

20,377

Cyprus

22.01.2023

20,603

15,451

Slovenia

10.01.2023

8,659

9,081

Luxemburg

25.01.2023

6,756

6,756

North

Macedonia

24.01.2023

Information missing

6,404

Azerbaijan

11.01.2023

Information missing

3,944

Serbia

and Kosovo

23.01.2023

1,217

2,869

Albania

24.01.2023

Information missing

2,342

Iceland

03.01.2023

2,239

2,239

Malta

07.01.2023

1,541

1,603

Armenia

23.01.2023

Information missing

491

Liechtenstein

18.01.2023

536

410

Bosnia and Herzogovina

22.01.2023

Information missing

150

Total

4,952,938

5,124,763

The data published by UNHCR perfectly illustrate the number of Ukrainians who have applied for or registered in national protection programs for temporarily displaced persons, but only partially cover Ukrainian citizens who do not receive official assistance from host countries. In addition, the organization's website shows a certain discrepancy in the data on the total number of internally displaced persons in individual countries. For example, in Bulgaria, 151,285 Ukrainians have been registered for temporary protection (or registered in the relevant programs). But at the same time, as of January, 26, 2023, only 50,000 Ukrainian immigrants physically stayed in this country. It implies that some people could move to other countries. Given this, it is worth noting that the published total number of Ukrainians who have taken refuge in Europe is underestimated.

Also, the UNHCR website published information about the number of Ukraine’s border crossings. Thus, according to this indicator, from February, 24, 2022, to January, 24, 2023, 17,923,566 cases of outbound crossings of the border, and 9,770,241 cases of inbound crossings of the border were recorded. Again, these data contain information on 2,852,395 cases of border crossings from Ukraine to Russia. However, given that since February, 2022, hostilities have been taking place along the entire border line with the Russian Federation, the precise number of Ukrainians who voluntarily left for Russia or were forcibly deported there by the occupying forces is unknown. In view of this, it can be argued that in the period from February, 24, 2022 to January, 24, 2023, it was recorded 15.05 million border crossings of Ukraine, and 9.77 million returns.

The infographic below shows the dynamics of the number of border crossings of Ukraine since August, 2022 (excluding information on border crossings with Russia and Belarus).

Based on UNHCR data, it can be assumed that 5.2 million people have left Ukraine since February, 24, 2022, and have not returned. However, again, this estimate does not take into account Ukrainians who fled the war through the territory of Russia, and subsequently found refuge in other countries of the world.

Comparison of UNHCR data with MFA and SBGS data

According to the statistics received from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as of December, 19, 2022, the total number of Ukrainian citizens abroad is more than 7.98 million people. Unlike UNHCR, this number also includes Ukrainians who stay outside Europe, for example, in the United States, Canada or Japan, and those who had been abroad before February, 24, 2022.

Given this, and the fact that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has available additional separate indicators on the number of adults and minors, their data is more relevant for assessing the challenges in ensuring suffrage abroad, during the first post-war elections. At the same time, it is impossible to assess the reliability and accuracy of the information provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not provide OPORA with a methodology for generating statistical reports, referring to the Law of Ukraine “On Access to Public Information”.

As for the number of citizens of Ukraine who received the status of temporary protection after February, 24, our Ministry has information from only 26 countries of the world. Data for those countries that are at the disposal of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are very close to UNHCR data. However, given the completeness of the information, and a systematic approach to updating it to assess this category of citizens, it is more appropriate to use the UNHCR data.

In the infographics below, we compared the data received from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the information published on the UNHCR website. 

As mentioned above, according to the SBGS, from February, 24 to November, 30, 2022, 9.392 million facts of departure from Ukraine and 8.726 million entries into Ukraine were recorded. Although the border guards provided data only on adult citizens, this information still differs significantly from the data on the UNHCR website. Thus, according to the international organization, in the period from February, 24 to November, 29, last year, 12.96 million outbound border crossings were recorded, and 8.12 million inbound crossings.

Based on the data on border crossing published on the UNHCR website, it can be concluded that the number of Ukrainians abroad keeps growing. Whereas, as of August, 16, 2022, the difference in border crossings was 4.16 million, as of January 24, 2023, it increased by more than a million people — to 5.2 million. At the same time, the available information does not cover and does not allow to estimate the number of citizens who left Ukraine in search of asylum through the territory of Russia and Belarus.

In addition to statistics on the number of Ukrainian internally displaced persons abroad, UNHCR also publishes data from its own surveys. In total, from May to November, 2022, the organization conducted 43,571 interviews with Ukrainians who left the country. Thus, 23% of respondents say that they visited Ukraine after the beginning of a full-scale invasion at least once; 16% of Ukrainians, at the time of departure from Ukraine, had already had the status of internally displaced persons (IDPs); 38% arrived to Europe in March, 2022. You can read more about the survey results in this report.

IV. Conclusions

As we can see, the number of IDPs and Ukrainians who left for abroad as a result of the war requires further research.

To find out the correct number of internally displaced persons, it is necessary:

  • to look for additional sources of information on internal displacement, with a focus on adult citizens of Ukraine. Such sources could be provided by mobile operators, and the State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection. However, OPORA has not received a positive response to requests for this information. On the one hand, the data of mobile operators will make it possible to understand the dynamics and scale of actual internal displacement necessary to develop proposals for changes in public policy and recommendations to local governments, but their free sharing can indeed pose a threat to national security;
  • to specify in the Ministry of Social Policy the number of adult citizens of Ukraine who are IDPs, including by region. After all, the only information available currently is on the total number of IDPs, regardless of age and citizenship, which does not allow counting the number of voters who have official IDP status;
  • to look for a mechanism for monitoring the actual movement of voters, and not only those who have the official status of IDPs, with their subsequent registration by the State Register of Voters at the new actual place of residence.

At further stages of the study of the number of Ukrainians who went abroad, it is necessary:

  • to find out whether the state has in place or is developing a methodology for determining the scale and dynamics of the movement of Ukrainians abroad after a full-scale invasion;
  • to find the reasons for the discrepancies in the data on the Ukrainian side and at international organizations, primarily regarding the crossing of the state border, in order to adequately assess the increase in the number of voters abroad. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the situation in Ukraine remains unstable and unpredictable, so the movement of Ukrainian people across the state border in both directions can be pendular, and will not necessarily indicate the stability of the trends of leaving or returning to Ukraine;
  • to search for efficient mechanisms of registration of Ukrainian citizens abroad, which would allow the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to have relevant data on the actual external movement, including through the improvement of the consular registration regime;
  • to take into account the meaning of terms for the designation of internally displaced Ukrainians abroad used in different countries. Using the word “refugees” can distort the idea of foreigners about the reasons for the forced displacement of Ukrainians abroad. Therefore, it is necessary to raise awareness about the meaning of the terms "refugees" and "persons in need of temporary protection," and promote their correct use in the information space.

The analysis of responses to inquiries allowed OPORA to find out what information the state has about the number of displaced citizens inside the country and abroad. At the same time, it also made it possible to identify factors not taken into account in the calculations, and to establish the need to clarify some data.

To correctly assess the possible risks for holding the first post-war elections under different scenarios of ending the armed conflict, it is necessary to take into account the variability of migration processes. Given that the war is still ongoing, monitoring the scale, dynamics of movement, and moods of voters regarding the return to the place of registration or change of place of temporary stay should be a constant and priority activity for public authorities in Ukraine.

This publication was prepared as part of the project “Civil Society for Ukraine's Post-War Recovery and Preparedness for the EU” implemented with the financial support of the European Union. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Civil Network OPORA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.