Last week (October, 24–30), russia continued their disinformation campaign against Ukraine. Its objective is to undermine international support for our state and, at the same time, to test the world's reaction to the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
Given the responses of the West, as well as India and China, the russian venture failed.
In addition, russia withdrew from the "grain agreements" which were supposed to automatically extend in November. The pretext was a purportedly Ukrainian attack on the warships of the Black Sea Fleet in the harbor of occupied Sevastopol. However, this pretext is formal because russia threatened to withdraw from the "grain agreements" back in September, if its terms and conditions are not met.
At the same time, Moscow continues to promote the message of alleged openness to negotiations with Ukraine, which in the russian sense, means that Ukraine must agree to losing the annexed territories. However, Kyiv repeatedly said that negotiations with the rf are possible only after they withdraw their troops from all the occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
Also, in russia, another change in the goals of the so-called "special operation" was raised quite seriously. The “ingenious” thought of “de-satanization” was born in the head of the assistant secretary of the rf's security council, alieksiei pavlov. However, according to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the statement may aim to consolidate religious minority groups in the russian army against a common enemy.
russia lies about the Ukrainian “dirty bomb,” with no luck
Since russia failed to convince the world that Ukraine was shelling the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Moscow came up with a new venture to divert attention from their own barbaric actions. The kremlin said that Ukraine was allegedly preparing to use a "dirty nuclear bomb" and blame russia for it. The russian Defense Minister, shoigu, called his colleagues from France, Turkey, The United Kingdom, and the United States, but no one believed him. Moreover, the United States, Great Britain, and France issued a joint statement calling russia's accusations blatantly false. The US State Department also said that russia would face consequences if they used a “dirty bomb” or any other nuclear weapon.
shoigu must have enjoyed talking on the phone so much that he shared about the “dirty bomb” to the defense ministers of India and China. However, no expected response came from them, either. On the contrary, these countries have expressed negatively about the prospects for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In particular, India's Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, during a telephone conversation on Wednesday, said to sergei shoigu that russia “should not resort to the nuclear solution” when it goes about the war in Ukraine. At the same time, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, discussed a ban on the use of weapons of mass destruction with his russian counterpart, sergei lavrov. Furthermore, Beijing emphasized the need to avoid further escalation and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
In addition, the head of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed the hope that Ukraine and russia would manage to resolve the "Ukrainian crisis" (China does not use the word "war" about the developments in Ukraine – ed.) through negotiations. This statement sounded as a response to lavrov's reassurance that russia was purportedly ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine.
russian words about a “dirty bomb” did not go unnoticed in NATO, either. The Alliance Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, said that the rf should not use any “false statements” about “dirty bombs” as an excuse to escalate the war in Ukraine. “What worries us is that this is part of a pattern that we saw earlier in russia – in Syria, as well as at the outbreak of war or shortly before the outbreak of war in February. And this is when russia blames others for what they intend to do themselves, ”NATO Secretary General said.
Ukraine, represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, also emphasized that the russian statements about the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya NPP by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are untrue, and invited the IAEA mission to visit the nuclear facilities. The Agency accepted the invitation and noted that Ukraine's nuclear facilities are under their safeguards and undergo regular inspections. Preliminary findings of the inspections showed that there were no undeclared activities or materials.
The absurdity of kremlin's propaganda was demonstrated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of russia that published a "photo evidence" on their own Twitter account to confirm that two Ukrainian organizations were given the task of developing a "dirty bomb". However, there is a hitch. The message caught the attention of the Slovenian government's Twitter account. They replied that one of the photos belonged to the Slovenian Radioactive Waste Agency (ARAO), and was taken back in 2010.
russia wants negotiations with Ukraine, but they want no peace
On October, 26, the President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaru Sisoku Embalo, paid a working visit to Ukraine. He became the first leader of the African state to visit Ukraine after the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion, but his visit is notable for something else. The President of Guinea-Bissau said that the russian president, vladimir putin, asked him to convey to the head of the Ukrainian state his readiness for negotiations, in particular the need to "establish bridges" and "unblock relations".
“Yesterday, I was in Moscow, with president putin, who asked me to forward the message, to talk to you. Indeed, based on the premise that direct dialogue is extremely important for our joint action. And I can say that this is also very important in terms of food security,”he said. Embalo added that putin “was ready for talks with President Zelensky”.
Instead, according to the President of Ukraine, any statements by the leader of the russian federation on the alleged readiness for peace negotiations are part of the rhetoric targeting the audiences in russia and the countries that still have relations with the russian federation. “In order to talk about any dialogue, generally speaking, it is necessary that one state respects another state, its territorial integrity, sovereignty, and its borders. I believe, things start with such very simple fundamental premises. So far, there is nothing like that,"said Volodymyr Zelensky.
In addition, the head of the Ukrainian state noted that russia is shelling civilian infrastructure, occupying Zaporizhzhya NPP, threatening to use a "dirty bomb" and blow up Kakhovka HPP, blocking the "grain corridor" and ships in the Black Sea. These actions are in no way in line with what russia calls “building the bridges” and “unblocking relations.”
Probably, the kremlin did not appreciate that the President of Guinea-Bissau spoke about putin's proposal during the briefing, rather than behind closed doors. We may try to be ironic and suppose that it is "beneath one's dignity" to ask for negotiations from a country which existence one questioned, beyond any common sense. Therefore, on the next day, the kremlin spokesman, dmitry peskov, said that Embalo's words came as his own initiative.
"There was no specific message in that case, and it was not implied," peskov said.
Therefore, either the President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaru Sisoku Embalo, took something wrong, or russia, as always, says one thing and does another. Experience shows that the second option is more likely.
At the same time, the kremlin spokesman, commenting on the topic of negotiations, repeated the traditional propaganda messages that russia is ready for negotiations but Ukraine does not want them. This is not true because, firstly, in the russian sense, negotiations mean that Ukraine should capitulate. Secondly, Kyiv argues that negotiations with russia are possible only after it withdraws its troops from all the occupied Ukrainian territories, including from Crimea. Such an option is rejected by russia, seeking to gain time to rebuild thier army and prepare for a new offensive.
Therefore, the "peace" offered by russia is a deferred conflict, and Ukraine cannot allow that.
As for the words of sergey lavrov, spoken to Wang Yi about russia's readiness for negotiations, they neatly fit the concept of the russian vision of the negotiation process. Perhaps there is another rationale here – russia is ready to make concessions to end the war sooner. However, there is no reason to seriously consider such an option, although the current gains of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front make the scenario more feasible.
“Grain Deal”: russia Finds a Convenient Excuse to Withdraw
On October, 29, russia announced its withdrawal from the "grain agreement," an initiative led by the UN for the safe sea export of agricultural products from Ukraine. This decision was reported by the russian Ministry of Defense, and later by the russian Foreign Ministry. It was allegedly caused by the attack of Ukrainian drones on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels, which, according to russia, provided security for the "grain corridor".
However, in our opinion, the attack against russian ships in the Sevastopol harbor was only an excuse for moscow to withdraw from the "grain deal". First, russia claims that civilian vessels were attacked, allegedly ensuring the security of the “grain corridor”. This is important because this is how russia alludes to the violation of the provisions of the agreement prohibiting the attacks at civilian vessels engaged in the "grain initiative". Here, two questions arise immediately: whether the civilian vessels were actually attacked, and if so, whether they participated in the "grain initiative". The “no” answer seems to be appropriate for both questions.
On the one hand, russia's Ministry of Defense says that only a military ship, a trawler "Ivan Holubets," suffered "minor damage". The russian Ministry of Defense does not specify which civilian vessels were affected and what their role was in the “grain initiative”. On the other hand, GeoConfirmed investigators, who analyzed data from open sources, claim that 3 warships were affected. They include the aforementioned "Ivan Holubets", as well as the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Admiral Makarov frigate, the carrier of the "Caliber" cruise missiles that russia uses to strike at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.
Also, the UN said that russian ships do not have the right to secure the "grain corridor". That is why moscow's reasoning is groundless claiming that an attack against its warships, which are also 220 kilometers away from the "corridor", violates the "grain agreement."
Secondly, russia has already repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the agreement if thier requirements are not met. This was also highlighted by Dmitry Kuleba:
"The current queue with grain carriers has accumulated in the Black Sea since September, when russia started deliberately delaying the functioning of the corridor and seeking to undermine the deal. Russia took the decision to resume its hunger games long ago, and now tries to justify it," he wrote in his Twitter account.
In addition, according to the diplomat, about 2 million tons of grain on 176 ships are now waiting in line.
"De-satanization" of Ukraine: the peak of idiocy or an attempt to avoid religious conflicts in the russian army
the russians again decided to change the objectives of the so-called “special operation”. However, it seems that they have loose imagination. russia is trying to increase the list of the now common “fight against the Nazis” and “protect the people of Donbas” and add the “desatanization” of Ukraine. It is no laughing matter. The “ingenious” thought of “de-satanization” was born in the head of the assistant secretary of the rf's security council, alieksiei pavlov.
He said that Ukraine has turned into a "totalitarian hypersect" where citizens have abandoned Orthodox values, and therefore "de-satanization" becomes an urgent issue. pavlov believes that the exact number of sects in Ukraine is unknown but "the number goes by the hundreds."
At first glance, these statements seem utterly nonsensical. However, according to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War, they might pursue a certain goal – for example, the desire to divert dissent among religious minority groups in the russian army, where conflicts on religious grounds are increasingly occurring.
However, the lunacy of russian politicians does not end here. On October, 28, russia's permanent representative to the UN, vasiliy niebienzia, said that russian occupiers had allegedly discovered drones in Ukraine that could "spread mosquitoes infected with hazardous viruses."
After reading the russian statements, it may all seem as a dream or delusion. Unfortunately, however, this is not the case. russia really lives in a distorted reality, which it wants to forcefully impose on Ukraine. Therefore, Ukrainians have no choice but to resist the aggressor and protect their right to choose their own future.