The Ukrainian segment of the Internet is flooded with memes about the distance between putin and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the meeting. How, in particular, did such a move with elements of alleged disrespect contribute to the agreements on drones, the nuclear plant, and Syria? All this was discussed by OPORA analysts together with invited experts during the every Friday “War Speeches” broadcast on July 22.
As OPORA analyst Andrii Savchuk notes, this is actually putin's second foreign visit after the full-scale attack on Ukraine
"As stated, in particular, by the russian side, they are united by the fact that they are, and here russia agrees, and that they will be under Western sanctions for years. And, in fact, it supposedly brings them closer together," Andrii Savchuk said.
According to OPORA analyst Anatolii Bondarchuk, last week, russia tried to promote several key theses on the international stage.
In order to disrupt the supply of Western weapons, a new informational wave started again. They say Ukraine allegedly uses these weapons on the black market. This narrative began working with new strength after the effective use of HIMARS by the Ukrainian army.
"If russia manages to convince our Western partners that we are somehow irresponsible with the weapons we receive, then it will reduce the desire of our Western partners to help us. And this is well understood in Ukraine. We have no doubts that the weapon is used for its intended purpose. But at the same time, the Ukrainian Government and the Ukrainian authorities are doing everything to demonstrate to our Western partners that, in fact, there is no reason not to trust Ukraine. And, accordingly, russia is waging its propaganda war against Ukraine. And, in particular, there are several specific measures that Ukraine has now announced in order to reduce all of russia's arguments to such an absurdity as possible," Anatolii Bondarchuk said.
For example, this week the "SOTA" informational and analytical system was presented, which will monitor the supply of weapons to Ukraine from partner countries.
Moreover, in order to counter russian propaganda, an opening of a special hub was announced. This hub will facilitate the work of the military journalists, correspondents of Ukrainian and foreign media, so that as many of them as possible have the opportunity to objectively highlight information about events at the front and in Ukraine.
In addition, the President of Ukraine announced the creation of the English-language media u24.gov.ua, which will be aimed at disseminating more English-language information about events in Ukraine.
The second important thesis that russia is working on is that it is trying to convince everyone that it is not in international isolation. In particular, this is how russian president demonstrates his second foreign visit after the invasion. There are also many statements regarding russia’s participation In G20 summit, but russians do not name the list of countries with which they will meet. Probably, no one wants to meet with russia, so they have to say that the list of meetings is still being formed.
"This week, Ukraine continues to lobby for supplies of Western weapons, and we have some success in this. The fourth meeting was held in Rammstein, and our Minister of Defense took part in it online. And, accordingly, a new aid package for Ukraine was announced there, in particular, it includes HIMARS systems, which have shown themselves well in Ukraine. And a new package of financial aid for the needs of Ukrainian defense from the European Union in the amount of $500 million was also announced. An important event was held in the US Congress, where the First Lady of Ukraine took part, who urged to continue helping Ukraine with weapons. That is, we see that the Ukrainian side is doing everything to ensure that we receive the necessary amount of weapons and, accordingly, end this war with victory as soon as possible," Anatolii Bondarchuk said.
According to the analyst, russia does not want us to win, so it made a statement about the conflict going beyond the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We know that currently parts of the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv regions and Kherson regions remain occupied. Therefore, this statement is strange from the point of view of logic, because the geography of full-scale war of russia against Ukraine has long gone beyond the borders of Donbas. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to oust russia from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Odesa regions, to which the Zmiinyi Island belongs. At the same time, russia wants to incline Ukraine to negotiations, but on the condition that Ukraine accepts new realities with the loss of territories, but, in return, Ukraine does not accept capitulation conditions.
Mokhammad Faradzhallakh, editor-in-chief of the "Ukraine in Arabic” Internet portal, believes that the visit of the President of Turkey Recep Erdogan and the visit of the President of russia putin to Tehran for a meeting with the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is a meeting of the three most irreconcilable parties, where each tried to achieve their own interests or send their own messages.
"putin wanted to show that he is outgoing, that he can be present in those states outside the post-Soviet space. He also wanted to play the role of the balance of the United States. We understand that according to the official legend of russia, the invasion of Ukraine is not against Ukrainians, but against NATO, and against creating a polar world. For example, the President of the USA was present in the Middle East on an official visit, so putin, on the other hand, wanted to show that since there is Biden in the Middle East, I will also fly to the Middle East. In my opinion, Biden made a big mistake, which remains the main loophole for China and russia in the Middle East, and it is sad that this is happening and the whole civilized world is not aware of it. Biden's visit to the Middle East had two goals, the first of which I believe was right and the second of which I believe was wrong. The first goal is to agree with Saudi Arabia on new oil production, to strengthen the position of our allies – this is very good for us as well. And the second is again carte blanche for Israel, again full support for Israel to try to assemble an anti-Iranian alliance. This is a very bad and wrong policy at this time for two reasons – it just gave putin some chance and light at the end of the tunnel. First, if an anti-Iranian alliance is coming, then Iran will be looking for allies. And it is looking for them, and we don't need that now. Second, to once again announce full support for Israel, which does not need support, although the Palestinian issue remains unresolved. I would like to note that the state of Palestine has been annexed by Israel for 75 years. The Palestinians received massive UN Resolutions, that is, from the civilized world, and none of them were implemented. The seizure of Crimea was a mirror image of what happened in the Middle East. It's just that putin watched and saw that someone was wiping his feet on the decision of the international community and thought, why shouldn't I do the same,” Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.
According to the expert, putin will win in the Middle East not politically or economically, but at the PR level, because he tells people what they want to hear. For example, the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, made a serious statement at a conference in Jeddah in the presence of Biden that if we want to have peace in the Middle East and then in the whole world, we need to solve the issue with Palestine. Immediately after, lavrov makes a statement to the Arab world that no one asked for, but he says that the Palestinian issue must be resolved and presents himself as a defender of the defenseless people of Palestine, despite the fact that russia is now killing children in Ukraine.
In his opinion, putin wanted to show Iran the following: 1) that it can be an ally against the United States; 2) that he wants to negotiate with Iran on the purchase of drone technology; 3) that wants to find opportunities to sell sanctioned gas and oil. And also an additional message could be a desire to show that he is alive and well.
The expert believes that putin 's visit to the Middle East was partially successful as a PR campaign, but in fact, it can be said that it was not, it is even possible to consider some events as a certain humiliation of putin. Currently, according to the official position, Iran declares that it will not help any of the parties to the conflict in the war on the territory of Ukraine
"We have to be very careful. Iran does not see Ukraine as an enemy. We must not make the mistake that was made in the Middle East. The Middle East, unfortunately, judges simply: it looks at who helps, for example, on the side of Ukraine – the USA, and since the USA is not my friend, then Ukraine is my enemy. This is rude and wrong. We have to deal with Iran separately in detail. If it is the United States that blames Iran, the United States is not Iran's friend, we must watch carefully, our intelligence must check. If we find any details or evidence that Iran is helping russia, then we have to make claims, and until we can make them, we have to watch," Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.
According to the expert, the distance at which putin sat during the meeting, as well as the fact that Recep Erdogan made putin wait for 53 seconds during their meeting, is a humiliation of the russian dictator. And with regard to gas and oil, it is unlikely that anything has worked out for putin because in fact, these sanctioned goods become competitors at the sanctioned Iranian black market, which, of course, Iran does not like very much. However, even with regard to negotiations regarding Iranian drones, in a normal situation, putin would send the minister of defense to negotiate the purchase of technologies, and here he descends to the level that he himself is forced to fly and it is not a fact that he still received them.
"We can consider his visit unsuccessful, but those people who do not know the details see some advantages in it. In reality, time will tell," Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.
According to the expert, Ukraine's severance of diplomatic relations with Syria at the end of June was both a right and wrong decision.
"It is true that we broke up now and it is not true that we waited for eight years. Unfortunately, there is a certain naivety in Ukraine and flexibility towards those countries that do not respect us. We have been playing this game for a long time. Back in 2014, I recommended that our politicians immediately sever diplomatic relations with any state that recognizes Crimea as part of russia. The Middle East, especially Arab Muslim countries, mostly supported Ukraine. But there are those countries that putin put pressure on – Syria and Sudan. And then they realized that one side is pressing, this is russia, and the other side, let's say, looks gently, then it is possible to fulfill the conditions. If they understood well that one oppresses and the other crushes, then they would maintain neutrality. When political or moral values don't work, force works," Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.
According to him, it doesn't matter which country encroaches on our territorial integrity, but then we don't want to see their flag and their Embassy here. And this is a gesture of strong diplomacy.
Moreover, with regard to Syria, there is no question of the sovereignty of this state because the territory controlled by Assad and his troops is determined by thekKremlin. That is, the leadership of Syria has long been the same puppet as in Belarus.
In particular, it could push putin to invade Ukraine. He expected that it would be like in Syria.
"I believe that those countries that have already recognized Crimea as russian, we should present claims now. Either they change their position, or break diplomatic relations with them," Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.He
also believes that Ukraine should strengthen partnerships and cooperation in the Middle East. In particular, to start a TV channel in Arabic to tell the Arab world about Ukraine, to counter russian propaganda about Ukraine there, and to focus on the Arab market for oil and weapons.
As a good example of direct cooperation, the expert mentioned visa-free travel with Saudi Arabia. In 2021, there was a record number of Arab tourists in Ukraine. When the first flight of the low-cost airline opened, it was planned that there would be 1 flight per week, but in fact there were 13 flights per week. And each tourist left $5-7 thousand per trip in the economy of Ukraine. The photo made by an Arab tourist from somewhere in the West of Ukraine went viral the most throughout the Arab world, when he recorded a Ukrainian farmer who wrote in Arabic “I am Ivan and I am selling sheep, and here is my phone number”. At that time, the Arab media vividly and positively discussed Ukraine as an open and hospitable country. The most important thing is that they understood the message that Ukraine is not russia.
“russia has always tried to present itself as a mediator between the Arab world and Ukraine, and, later, the EU. We don't need intermediaries. We need friends. We need to work directly", Mokhammad Faradzhallakh said.
He also believes that Ukraine should work purposefully toward the Arab world so that Ukrainian diplomats do not make mistakes if something important happens there.
Oleksii Yizhak, head of the department of the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS), believes that the main result of putin's visit to Iran is that the Jewish agency Sohnut, which deals with repatriation around the world, was closed in russia. Perhaps for the first time since the time of the Soviet Union, such a problem arises with the repatriation of Jews to Israel.
"And in general, I believe that this is a big failure of russia in the situation of this visit. putin went personally to show that he is outgoing, that he has his own geopolitical game, that he has certain allies, and that there are generally issues that he can solve. He went to show that russia still controls the issue of Iran in the broad sense of the nuclear program and relations with the United States of America and the negotiations that are going on. In the sense of the situation in the Middle East in general and relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as specific bilateral relations with Iran. And he was on his way to talk with the President of Turkey about common issues that can be discussed. The main issue that interests russia right now is somehow to convince Ukraine, to influence it, to accept a cease-fire and actually consolidate for a long time the state of occupation, which was formed by the deployment of troops. And make a counteroffensive on the right bank of the Dnieper impossible, because russia's highly probable defeat here looks quick and inevitable. russia is trying in every way to find opportunities. In general, the President of Turkey can be such a communicator if russia makes concessions. So it seems from moscow that if Turkey concedes something, then it can share a little influence on Ukraine. And it seems to me that this closing of ‘Sohnut’ indicates that nothing came of it, no one was impressed by this visit. And, in the end, russia had to replace this failure with the position that it traditionally had in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – neutral, but russia must be there. russia directly shows that it is forced to distance itself from Israel in order to maintain a balance with the Arab world and with Iran. This means that they did not fundamentally resolve anything that they wanted to resolve," Oleksii Yizhak said.
The expert also believes that, judging by Iran's statements, US threats to stop negotiations on returning to the Iran nuclear deal have made it impossible to supply drones and, in general, significant military assistance. This option, of course, remains, but it will clearly not be easy and open.
It can also be assumed that russia could not pressure Iran to solve the financial issue of the construction of a russian nuclear power plant in Iran – it will have to be built at its own expense in order to maintain certain relations with Iran. Also, russia will remain the main source of agricultural products for Iran, because it is difficult for russia to trade with the world
“russia didn't get anything significant, and it doesn't look like there were any behind-the-scenes agreements with Erdogan regarding influence on Ukraine," Oleksii Yizhak said.
In his opinion, the visit came down to a certain PR of russia, and not the achievement of any results. It doesn't even look like putin made any serious attempts to discuss with Erdogan the very issue of the grain agreement and Ukraine.
According to him, through various channels and with all the informational and diplomatic weapons that the russians have left, they are trying to negotiate a certain capitulation of Ukraine in exchange for grain agreements. In particular, there is an intimidation that if Ukraine goes on a counteroffensive in the Kherson region, then russia will use nuclear weapons. But everything depends on Ukraine, if it cannot be broken in this matter, then it cannot be broken.
The expert believes that, instead, the talks regarding the supply of Iranian drones to russia were serious. However, as part of Iran's negotiations with the United States of America, there was still an option to show Iran another development of events in order to avoid escalation.
“At least they stopped any public talk about it. This means that if there are any supplies, they will be secret. And dangerous, both for Iran and for these negotiations. So I think if it says no, it means no. But there were talks, and I do not rule out that the deal was ready, let's say, by 80%. But what happened is what happened. Iran did not dare to provide these drones. It was important that russia would continue to build the nuclear power plant that is being built there, with its own funds. Iran got it, and that's enough for them. If it is a problem for the USA, of course, they will not enter into a contract with drones," Oleksii Yizhak said.
And talks about launching projects to supply gas to Iran, where in some parts of the country there is currently no relevant infrastructure, look like pure PR. These are just attempts to show that russia is a player in this market and can allegedly create alternative routes in contrast to Qatar, which in a few years can replace russian gas in Europe.
Regarding Syria, according to him, there is also nothing particular – they agreed to come to an agreement and continue consultations in the future.