Civil Network OPORA developed an online tool "War Speeches" to track the official position and public discourse of the occupying state about the war against Ukraine and forecasts for the future aggressive plans. The monitoring focused on statements and speeches delivered by officials from the occupying state, as well as on official documents of government institutions.
In addition to a detailed timeline of public positions presented on the website, we offer weekly analytical conclusions on the key changes in the public rhetoric of the parties to the military confrontation.
Last week, the rf acknowledged the completion of the first phase of the "special military operation in Ukraine" (the battle for Kyiv), and officially announced the actual start of the next phase (the battle for Donbas and the South of Ukraine). They began to prepare the ground for a broad mobilization campaign as part of a further escalation of the armed confrontation. The key message of Kremlin’s official communications from last week was to promote the line that the rf is waging war with NATO, rather than with Ukraine. Furthermore, russia continues to actively forge the conspiracy theory of military bio-labs in Ukraine, thus building a solid idea among russians of a new existential threat to rf. This week, this type of narrative was supplemented by high-profile but unconfirmed facts about US military biolabs around the perimeter of russia and in Mongolia.
Last week, the public rhetoric of the political leadership of Ukraine had a prevalent topic of increasing the pressure of sanctions on rf. President Zelensky called on the US to recognize russia as a state sponsor of terrorism in order to automatically put into effect a multidimensional package of international sanctions. Although not all but most potential sanctions have already been applied (such as an arms embargo), that is why supporting such an initiative would rather be an important symbol. On the other hand, Ukraine's Plan to Strengthen Sanctions Against the rf put forward last week includes a wide range of practical solutions to reduce russia's capability to finance the war. Some of the closest steps are the oil embargo and a complete restriction for the supply of petroleum products from russia.
The situation in Ukrainian Mariupol is catastrophic. Last week, Ukraine unsuccessfully demanded that russia introduce a 4-day ceasefire and open green corridors to evacuate civilians and wounded soldiers from Mariupol. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, confirmed that negotiations with russia did not produce any results, and therefore the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be decided on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table.
Key messages of rf
“russia fights not only the Ukrainian neo-Nazis, but also the countries of the 'collective West' backing them up”
spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation, Maria Zakharova, April, 22, 2022
As you can see, in russia, public opinion is being shaped to positively perceive the decision to mobilize additional military personnel. Now, also at the level of officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the line is promoted that the open war continues not with Ukraine but with NATO and the "collective West". Until recently, the "special military operation" has been referred to as the war of the rf with NATO by russian media propaganda advocates only. This way they explained to their audiences the lack of rapid results of the campaign in Ukraine. In the near future, we could expect statements from the highest officials and the military leadership of kremlin that the russian army needs more soldiers and more time to win the war with NATO.
When russia rephrases the concept of a "special military operation in Ukraine" into a "war with NATO," it also allows the rf to justify their refusal to participate in the negotiation process with Ukraine. It now is presented that Putin is ready to negotiate a truce with the leaders of NATO countries, rather than with President Zelensky.
“We have changed the configuration of the military presence. <> As a gesture of goodwill, we changed the configuration in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts”
rf minister of Foreign Affairs, sergey lavrov, April 19, 2022
Some time earlier, the assault and occupation of the settlements of Kyiv and Chernihiv regions ended with the retreat of the Russian troops to their own and Belarusian territories. The official explanations of the reasons for this decision came this week only. The withdrawal of troops from the northern regions of Ukraine was labelled as a "gesture of goodwill" in the kremlin. They interpret this fact as the planned completion of the first phase of the military campaign in Ukraine. Lavrov reported that the next phase is beginning now, which purpose is to capture (in the kremlin's terms — "to liberate") Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Most interestingly, the kremlin leadership remains silent and does not specify what results were achieved within the previous phase of the invasion of Ukraine. In their assessments of the campaign, russian officials confine themselves to quoting putin's words that “the special operation is going according to plan.”
“About 30 laboratories have been established in the countries along the perimeter of the borders of russia and the People's Republic of China. There are 15 of them in Ukraine."
rf minister of Foreign Affairs, sergey lavrov, April 22, 2022
The conspiracy theory hastily constructed by kremlin about military biological laboratories in Ukraine is supplemented weekly with new fictional stories and sensational details. Last week, zaharova reported that for many years, military biological activities in Ukraine had been, and possibly still continue to be carried out by Germany. Now, lavrov told the story of 30 laboratories around the borders of Russia and the People's Republic of China, half of which are located in Ukraine. Additionally, Lavrov has no doubt that the Americans intend to move Ukrainian biolabs to Mongolia.
Key Messages of Ukraine
“What the russian federation has already committed is a definitive sufficient reasoning for the world to eventually recognize the russian state as a sponsor of terrorism and the russian army as a terrorist organization.”
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, April 23, 2022
Last week, Ukrainian government officials began to publicly promote the demand for recognition of the russian federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. President Zelensky personally urged the US to recognize russia as a sponsor of terrorism, and the russian armed forces as a terrorist organization. The adoption of such a decision will have limited economic significance, since key sanctions that may stem from it have already been implemented (in particular, a ban on the supply of weapons or the provision of economic assistance). Instead, it will have an important symbolic effect because russia will join the exclusive club of countries sponsoring terrorism, next to North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Syria.
At the same time, the Office of the President of Ukraine presented the Plan for Strengthening Sanctions against the rf developed by an international group of experts. The plan is a response to the statement that there is no longer any way to increase economic pressure on russia. Strictly disagreeing with this, the Plan's developers proposed concrete solutions within the framework of a broader international strategy. The implementation of all its key areas should prevent russia from financing the war machine. In particular, it goes about restrictions for the energy sector, the banking sector, export and import operations, and transportation sector. Som of the immediate steps should include an oil embargo and a complete restriction on the supply of petroleum products from russia. Among other things, the Plan contains a clause on the exclusion of russia from the anti-money laundering (FATF) group. Instead, rf should be included in the FATF blacklist as a State sponsor of terrorism. The Plan is publicly advocated by the Office of the President of Ukraine.
“The end of this war will be decided on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table”
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, April 19, 2022
Last week, Ukraine explicitly demanded that russia impose a 4-day ceasefire and open green corridors for the removal of civilians and wounded soldiers from Mariupol. Thus, our state adheres to the negotiating track of finding a solution to the blockade of Mariupol and evacuation of civilians. Russia keeps avoiding any agreements and continues to assaulting Azovstal. In fact, President Zelensky admitted that among the two options for unblocking Mariupol, only one remains relevant. It consists in providing the Ukrainian military with serious assistance of heavy weapons. “This is what the defenders of the city are hoping for as they are not going to surrender to the enemy,” said Zelensky. However, Ukraine cannot yet objectively implement this option. The second track is in the diplomatic domain but russia is not ready for it. At the same time, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, said that there are virtually no alternatives, and negotiations with russia under these conditions are unproductive. The end of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be decided on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table.