Last week (February 6–12), Volodymyr Zelensky had a number of important international visits. He met the leaders of the UK, Belgium, France, and Germany, as well as the high officials of the European Commission and the European Council.

During these meetings, the President called for the provision of combat aircraft and other weapons to Ukraine. In addition, he received guarantees from France, Germany and the EU that they will support Ukraine as long as it takes to win.

At a meeting with President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and President of the European Council, Charles Michel, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope to open negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU still this year.

Meanwhile, the russian army went on the offensive in several axes, although it was not officially announced. However, the offensive is evidenced by the insane losses of the enemy.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, last week the Armed Forces of Ukraine killed a record high number of russian soldiers – 6,180 people.

However, the Dutch OSINT group Oryx reported that in just three days of the offensive near Vuhledar and Avdiivka, the enemy lost at least 103 units of military equipment, including 36 combat tanks.

Not all is well in the russian economy. Thus, in January, the oil and gas revenues of the russian federation fell by almost 50% compared to the like period in 2022; and the total income from this activity decreased by 35%.

The federal budget deficit in January is $25 billion. To cover it, the russian Ministry of Finance had to sell 3.6 tons of gold and 2.3 billion Chinese yuan.

Against the backdrop of economic problems and failures at the front, to prevent a riot of elites, the russian dictator signed decrees that allow deputies, senators, and public officials, including the military and law enforcement officers, not to publish their income in the public domain. Now, corruption in Russia will grow even more.

We tell you more about the key developments of the war week in the digest from OPORA.

European leaders pledge support for Ukraine to win the war, and russian politicians “explode with anger”

Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France. On February, 8, in London, the Ukrainian president met with British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, and King Charles III. Furthermore, he delivered an address to the MPs. During all the meetings, Zelensky called on the UK to provide Ukraine with combat aircraft, comparing them with the “wings of freedom”.

On the same day, Volodymyr Zelensky visited Paris, where he met with French President, Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. During this meeting, the President of Ukraine confirmed Ukraine's request for heavy weapons and combat aircraft.

At the same time, Macron stressed that russia should not win this war, and France and Germany will support Ukraine as long as needed.

The next day, Volodymyr Zelensky visited Brussels, where he spoke in the European Parliament, and also met with European leaders at a meeting of the European Council. He also took part in a press conference together with President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and President of the European Council, Charles Michel. The European officials assured Volodymyr Zelensky that the EU would continue sanctions to pressure russia and support Ukraine until its victory. Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope to open negotiations on joining the EU still this year.

The trip of the President of Ukraine to Western capitals provoked an angry hysteria in the russian information space. In particular, dmitrii medvedev, dmitrii peskov, vasily nebenzya, and marina zakharova, in their comments on Zelensky's visit, shifted to personal insults. This once again testifies to the weakness of russia that is no longer able to destroy the strong Western support for Ukraine.

Thus, for example, medvedev wanted to shame Volodymyr Zelensky – claiming  that he “whimpers for planes, missiles, and tanks while abroad” – and threatened that russia, in response to the supply of Western weapons, would increase thier own production of military equipment.

The sentence that Ukraine “whimpers” for weapons was reiterated by the spokeswoman of the russian Foreign Ministry, maria zakharova. However, she went even further, comparing the tour of the Ukrainian president with circus road tours.

“These days they applauded their “fosterling”(russian“ выкормышу ”– ed.) and showed him around in NATO countries, like in the circus… Zelensky was taken from one plenary hall to another, to be shown to people. The world was presented with a monster endowed with the function of unleashing the bloody massacre, ”a spokeswoman for the russian Foreign Ministry said during an official briefing.

However, russian politicians have long been trying to shift responsibility for the outbreak of the war to Ukraine. In fact, they do it for a reason, because Ukraine advocates the creation of a Special Tribunal to bring the kremlin leadership to justice for the crime of aggression, that is, an unprovoked war that russia started.

In addition, zakharova told Volodymyr Zelensky that before the presidential election he promised to “fly ordinary planes, sit in ordinary airplane seats, there is no difference between him and ordinary citizens,” and now he flies to European countries on VIP aircraft of the British Air Force.

However, speaking about this, zakharova, apparently, deliberately forgets that because of russia's attack, civilian aircraft in Ukraine do not fly, because the russians deliberately shoot them down. For example, in July, 2014, near Donetsk, the russians shot down a passenger plane Boeing 777 of “Malaysian airlines” on a flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

On the other hand, russia's representative in the UN Security Council, vasily nebenzya, accused Western arms manufacturers of profiting from the war in Ukraine and testing new weapons at the cost of the lives of Ukrainian and russian soldiers.

However, the diplomat deliberately ignores the fact that if russia had not started the war, Ukraine would not have received modern weapons, and the countries of Europe would not have been strengthening their own defense capabilities.

dmitrii peskov was least emotional in his statements. He said that the aircraft that Ukraine can receive “will not change the outcome of the conflict and do not change the trajectory that our country has taken, in terms of achieving its goals within SMO.”

However, russia has repeatedly made such self-confident statements, every time Ukraine received a new type of modern weapon. For example, putin promised to “crack HIMARS like nuts” but so far the russian army is not up to the task.

russia loses oil and gas revenues and contributes to corruption

Sanctions policy has an increasingly negative impact on the economy of the aggressor. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, russia stole more than 500 leasing aircraft worth $20 billion, and continues to be proud of it.

“Live with wolves, howl like wolves,” putin commented on  russia's decision to keep the leasing fleet, at a meeting with representatives of the aviation industry.  

However, the gas station country loses its main source of income. Thus, in January, the oil and gas revenues of the russian federation fell by almost 50% compared to the like period in 2022; and the total income from this activity decreased by 35%. According to economists, the limitations on oil prices deprived russia of $8 billion in revenues in January.

In addition, the expenses of the russian aggressor increased by 59%, so the federal budget was short of almost $25 billion. And this is just the beginning, because on February, 5, a ban on the import of petroleum products to the EU from russia came into force, which will make it impossible to import gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and other raw materials.

In addition, the russians announced a reduction in oil production.  According to the vice-prime minister of the russian federation, aleksandr novak, in March, russia “will voluntarily reduce oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day.”

To cover the hole in the budget in January, russia sold gold for the first time. The Ministry of Finance sold 3.6 tons of gold from the National Welfare Fund, as well as 2.3 billion Chinese yuan. However, the officials figures are probably not brought to the attention of the russian dictator by the rf ministry of finance.

“The fact that some industries faced difficulties in our country was inevitable. But I think that for many of those who tried and are trying to create problems for us, it was unexpected how effectively we are countering the threats posed to us in the economy and in certain production sectors,” putin said.

Moreover, at the grand ceremony night on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of russian civil aviation, the dictator persuaded: “They will be envious of us. They are already grudging now, otherwise thye would not have gottne involved with us – that's the whole point. ”

However, the aggressor faces challenges not only in the oil segment. The Czech company ČEZ initiated arbitration against Gazprom. According to the rules of the International Chamber of Commerce, the company deamnds compensation of 1 billion Czech crowns ($45.3 million) due to shortage of gas supply.

In addition, in January, the Russian car making  market collapsed – sales of new cars and commercial vehicles decreased by 63%.Also, more than 60% of companies switched to Chinese equipment. Previously, they preferred more expensive European counterparts, but sanctions force them to “replace” components with Chinese products.

Also, in the near future, russians may face the purchase of sausages and hot dogs all skinless, as the deficit of sausage skin developed due to sanctions. Previously, russia supplied the skin from European factories but now the raw materials are brought from China, against prepayment or under parallel imports.

To comfort political actors, putin continues to promote corruption in russia. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are certain that he opens the door to further institutionalization of corruption through legislative manipulation. Thus, the dictator signed decrees that allow deputies, senators and officials, including the military and law enforcement officers, not to publish data on their incomes in the public domain.

“These two decrees are likely to be the kremlin's attempt to reassure political players who are putin's domestic base of support,” the ISW report said.

At the same time, russia denounced the Criminal Law Convention on Corruption, in part of the Group of States against Corruption. The aggressor has abandoned European anti-corruption standards, but at the same time reassured their citizens that this will not induce the growth of corruption in the country.

“The denunciation of the Convention will not affect the combat of corruption in russia. Its provisions have already been fully reflected in modern russian legislation, ”  assured a State Duma deputy, leonid slutsky.

The enemy intensified their effort but suffered record high losses

A month ago, Ukrainian intelligence began to talk more actively about a new russian offensive, in particular about “putin's plans to seize the Donbas by March.” Even before that, valery gerasimov was appointed a commander of the occupation troops in Ukraine. According to one version, the reason for this decision was precisely the promise of resuming the offensive and gaining new victories in Ukraine.

Despite the fact that this week the russians have not announced their new plans, according to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, a large-scale offensive has already begun.

This position is supported by the NSDC Secretary, Oleksiy Danilov: “They have already begun their offensive, they simply do not say that they have begun it, and our troops are repelling it very powerfully. The attack that they planned is already gradually coming. But not the attack they were counting on.”

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also comment on the enemy's offensive. A spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces, Serhiy Cherevatyi, said: “On February, 10, there were 124 attacks from various types of artillery in the Bakhmut section, and a record high number of 54 combat engagements.”

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, also said about “fierce battles in the Donetsk section, in particular, in the area of Vuhledar and Marinka,” but he reassured: “The defense forces in some parts of the front have restored the previously lost positions and consolidated there.”

This week's reports of the Ukrainian General Staff also regularly emphasized the intensification of the enemy's offensive action.

However, as early as the beginning of the week, British intelligence noted that russia is unlikely to build up the forces necessary to have a significant impact on the outcome of the war in the coming weeks. This is quite interesting because the tension increases inside the rf. In particular, they announced hundreds of tenders for the modernization of bomb shelters in he country. In the Crimea, according to Chief Intelligence Service, the local branch of the FSB issued a “decision to establish a high (yellow) level of terrorist threat.”

Earlier in the week, russian Defense Minister, sergei shoigu, held a press conference, where, among other things, he said that russian troops allegedly “successfully develop operations near Bakhmut and Vuhledar.” Although only one of the published videos shows a completely broken armored group under Vuhledar.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine, russia lost a record high number of 6,180 soldiers last week. And the Dutch OSINT group Oryx reported that in just three days of the offensive near Vuhledar and Avdiivka, the kremlin troops lost at least 103 pieces of military equipment, including 36 combat tanks.

Although, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the kremlin's failures under Vuhledar indicate poor training of mobilized russians, it is too early to relax.

Polish President, Andrzej Duda, urged to provide assistance to Ukraine as soon as possible: “If in the coming weeks we do not send military equipment to Ukraine, putin can win. He can win and we don't know where he's going to stop. ”

Of course, such words of the Polish president are a clear signal that support for Ukraine from partners should increase. Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said that by the anniversary of the russian invasion "there will be many important political signals, there will be decisions on sanctions and weapons; there will be symbols of unity, and this will happen at all levels."

Well, according to Estonian intelligence service, putin's main idea that “Ukraine and the West will be exhausted sooner than russia” is totally doomed to failure. Ukraine clearly demonstrates that bombs will not force it to sit at the negotiating table. Therefore, it is likely that after the next setbacks, the kremlin may again resort to nuclear blackmail.