Last week (January 30 – February 5), President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Kyiv. She highlighted the significant progress that Ukraine has made in implementing the recommendations required to open EU accession negotiations. In addition, the politician assured that Ukraine will become the EUmember.
On February, 5, a new stage of EU sanctions against russia was launched. It is a ban on the imports of petroleum products, in addition to the December ban on the purchase of russian oil.
According to experts, the restrictions should cut revenues to the russian budget by $1 trillion by 2030, which will significantly affect russia's capacity to finance the war against Ukraine.
The russian authorities are preparing the public for the heavy losses that the army will suffer during the new “great offensive” in Ukraine. At the same time, the Battle of Stalingrad, which was a turning point in the Second World War, was used by russia to illustrate and explain that human losses are indispensable for the victory.
The rhetoric about the “German fascist invaders” has not disappeared, either. They claim that russians now have to fight them again because the Western allies provide Ukraine with German tanks.
Ukraine has launched an advocacy campaign against the idea of the International Olympic Committee to re-admit athletes from russia and belarus to international competitions, including the 2024 Summer Olympics, although under neutral flags.
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, invited the IOC chief, Thomas Bach, to come to Bakhmut to see for himself that neutrality does not exist.
Read more about the main developments of the week in OPORA's review.
the russians are being prepared for great losses in the war
For almost a year of defeats in the war, russia is preparing to change the situation on the front to their favor. Last week, the fighting turned much tougher, especially in the Donetsk section.
“russia wants revenge. They want revenge precisely where it had failed previously. They wants to capture the East. Our job is not to give them that opportunity. We shall not allow it until the moment of reinforcing our army with appropriate weapons, ”Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference following the Ukraine-EU summit.
According to the President, “the enemy is in a specific stage, when russia's defeat is strategically obvious, but in tactical terms, they still have the resources to attempt to launch the offensive.”
russia may involve half of the more than 320,000 mobilized troops to escalate the situation in the frontline. However, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the total number of troops on the borders is much higher and could amount to 500,000 people.
The Donetsk axis remains the most likely target for the occupiers. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the russian president ordered his army to seize the entire territory of Donbas by March.
To do this, the occupiers are trying to scatter Ukrainian troops, pulling some of the units to the north-eastern border, and expanding the geography of the offensive.
"As of February 4, the enemy is regrouping in separate axes. The key effort focuses on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka sections," said the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, the russian “big offensive” is most likely to fail by April, whereas the culmination of russia's action may create favorable conditions for Ukrainian troops, which they will use for a counteroffensive in late spring or summer 2023, after receiving Western tanks. Such conclusions were reached by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.
“putin may have overestimated the capabilities of the russian military, again. ISW has seen no evidence that russian forces have rebuilt enough fighting power to defeat Ukrainian forces in the east of Ukraine and capture more than 11,300 square kilometers of the unoccupied Donetsk region.
Despite this, the kremlin is ready to bury in the Ukrainian land even more russian soldiers because, as dmitrii peskov said, “now, the main goal for russia is the SMO, and the fulfillment of its goals.”
The aggressor authorities are actively consolidating the russians and preparing them for potential great losses, using blatantly fascist narratives.
The kremlin canonizes the victorious battles of the Second World War for the USSR, and glorifies russians as a nation of winners. They incites hatred towards Ukrainians who are considered a modern projection of Nazi troops.
At a gala concert to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, russian dictator putin said: “All our people, all of us, were growing up absorbing the traditions of our people with the mother’s milk, as we are a generation of winners who, with their work, sweat, and blood, created our country and handed it over to us as a legacy.”
“The resilience of the defenders of Stalingrad for the russian army, for all of us, is the most important moral benchmark, and our soldiers and officers are committed to it,” added the dictator.
Russian propaganda sees the analogies between the defeat of the "German fascist troops" and the war in Ukraine in the fact that the so-called Ukrainian Nazis will be given German tanks. “It will be right for the German government to explain to their citizens why they are dragging the German people into the war again. And they’d rather remember the remote but memorable 1943,” said viacheslav volodin.
In 1942–1943, Red Army soldiers fought for every home, every street of Stalingrad. The same happens today, when our fighters are liberating the Russian land of Donbas, inch by inch, from Hitler's ideological followers, the Ukrainian Nazis,” leonid slutsky said.
The kremlin also promotes the idea of uniting russians against enemies. At a meeting with the representatives of non-governmental patriotic and youth organizations, putin claimed that there is always someone fighting russia; and the main task for the rf citizens today is to ensure the integrity of their country.
At the same time, slutsky promotes the narrative that they want to dismember russia, in order to seize its resources. “The West does not hide the true goals of the war against russia. It is a colonial campaign for resources, diamonds, and gold,” he said.
On the other hand, russia’s ex-president, dmitry medvedev, took up to justify russian crimes. He quoted tiutchev and reflected on how russia had made progress: “You get to realize the true foundation for rapid successes and the extraordinary expansion of russia that rendered the world surprised. You get to realize that the so-called conquest and violence was the most natural and legitimate thing that ever happened in history, we just see the immense reunion,” he said on the air of “Channel One”.
This transformation of russia is confirmed by the estimates of the British magazine The Economist. According to the analysts, after the invasion of Ukraine, the situation with democracy in the russian federation deteriorated significantly, and the country is assuming the features of a dictatorship.
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that russia turns to resemble a parody for Nazi Germany. “I suggest the Nazism history fans read the chapter about the tribunal,” the politician said.
Neutrality Does Not Exist: russian Athletes Can Not be Re-Admitted to the International Arena
At the end of January, the International Olympic Committee made a proposal to allow athletes from russia and belarus to compete, as after the full-scale invasion, they have been actually banned. We4 have seen some exceptions in some sports, such as in tennis. But even then, the russians and belarusians played under a neutral flag. However, the athletes themselves clearly associate themselves with their countries. For example, Arina Sabalenka played in a neutral status but after winning the Australian Open, she emphasized: “I think everyone already knows that I am a Belarusian.”
The new stance of sports officials, announced on January, 25, can help athletes from the rf and belarus to perform at the upcoming Olympic Games. The IOC pointed out that the re-admission of athletes can be possible only in a neutral status, and subject to “strict conditions”. They said that access should be provided on a case-by-case basis, and only to those athletes who allegedly “did not support the war” and have never been caught with doping. However, the most critical thing is that the IOC actually shares one of the russian narratives claiming that “no athlete should be deprived of the right to participate in competitions only because of their passport.”
Although this decision is not yet final, russia can and will use it for propaganda purposes, as well as for potential future performances of athletes. There is no mass anti-war movement of russian athletes and coaches. Moreover, they actually indulge in aggression. For example, in the spring of 2022, at the competitions in Qatar, the russian gymnast gained 3rd place in the bar exercises, and went to the award ceremony in the uniform with a letter Z on it. In addition, the Ukrainian sports outlet Tribuna keeps a database of russian athletes who supported the war against Ukraine. As of January, 2023, the list included as many as 223 people.
In response to the IOC actions, Volodymyr Zelensky announced the beginning of a “marathon of honesty” aimed at cleaning the leadership of international Olympic structures from hypocrisy and any attempts to draw representatives of russia into world sports. He also wrote a letter to the French President, Emmanuel Macron, regarding the possible admission of russian athletes to the 2024 Summer Olympics due in Paris. In addition, the President of Ukraine invited the chief of the IOC, Thomas Bach, to visit Bakhmut, so that he could see for himself that there neutrality does not exist.
Ukraine’s position has already been supported by several countries. The Baltic States and Poland officially condemned the IOC's attempts to re-admit athletes from russia and belarus to international competitions. In a joint statement, the ministers said that the efforts to return athletes to international sports competitions under the veil of neutrality “legitimize political decisions and widespread propaganda of these countries also through using sports as a distraction from the illegal aggression of russia against Ukraine.” In addition, Poland initiated the creation of a coalition of countries opposing the participation of rssians in the upcoming Olympics. Referring to the Minister of Sports and Tourism of Poland, Kamil Bortnichuk, Reuters believe that 30 or 40 countries could join it.
maria zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of russia, said: “All attempts to push our country out of international sports, and they are obvious, simply find various reasons doomed to failure. This should be understood by those who care about the high moral principles and independence of sports from politics.
putin's spokesman, dmitrii peskov, said that “there is too much politics in the wording of the initiative,” and igor levitin, an aide to the president of the russian federation, has already called the IOC's statement a success: “citizens understand that without russia, the Olympic Games cannot take place.”
As we can see, the propaganda of the terrorist state will present as a victory any actions aimed at returning anything russian to the international arena.
Ukraine moves towards the EU, the United States give long-range missiles, russia loses on oil, and rejoices in pirated films and software
On February, 2, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the EU to work on the start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the bloc. The document states that accession to the EU is based on merit, and involves compliance with the relevant procedures, as well as the fulfillment of certain criteria. MEPs called on the Ukrainian authorities to implement substantial reforms as soon as possible in order to effectively meet the criteria for EU membership.
The next day, February, 3, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and 15 other European Commissioners arrived in Kyiv for consultations. At a joint meeting with the Ukrainian government, she said that Ukraine would become a member of the EU. She also noted the progress in the implementation of the recommendations needed to open the EU negotiations. “All seven steps are important to take, and for all seven, we see significant progress. I am amazed that a country that is fighting an aggressor shows so much determination in implementing these seven steps. There is a lot of hard work ahead, but you have already taken the first steps, ”the President of the European Commission said .
As Ukraine moves toward the EU and retains a chance for economic reconstruction after the war ends, russian policymakers are demonstrating that their state is increasingly moving away from the civilized world. Thus, dmitry medvedev announced that russia plans to legalize piracy in the field of intellectual property held by Western countries. “We are only left with adopting rules on the use of their intellectual property. Without any licenses and payment of royalties. This, among other things, will be our sanctions in response to their property rights. For everything: from films to industrial software,” the former russian president wrote on his Telegram .
In addition, dmitry medvedev is convinced that European sanctions against russia have failed. However, according to “Economic Truth”, Bloomberg First Word oil analyst, Julian Lee, has a different opinion. In his article, he writes that russia has spent almost 50 years and hundreds of billions of dollars on building an energy market in Europe, but russian President putin destroyed it in less than 50 weeks, and it will be next to impossible to replace it. “While russia has found alternative markets for their oil, mainly in India, refocusing sales of petroleum products and, perhaps even more, natural gas, will take years and cost a lot of money. If it is possible to create markets at all in conditions when the world rejects fossil fuels,” says Julian Lee.
Continuing the oil theme, we must say that since February, 5, a new stage of EU sanctions against russia has been in place. It si about the ban on the import of petroleum products, in addition to the December ban on the purchase of russian oil. The imposed restrictions should significantly reduce revenues to the russian budget and, accordingly, the rf capability to finance the war against Ukraine. Thus, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, russia’s share in the global energy market will decrease from about 20% to 13%. Also, moscow will lose $1 trillion in export revenues due to the embargo on the import of oil and petroleum products from russia.
Meanwhile, on February, 2, in the United States, the court made the first decision on the confiscation of the assets of russian oligarchs. As soon as on the next day, US Attorney General, Merrick Garland, announced that these funds, namely $5.4 million, would be used to restore Ukraine. In addition, as reported by “European Truth”, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury announced on Wednesday the exposure of a network of 10 individuals and 12 legal entities who helped russia to maintain the military-industrial complex, in circumvention of sanctions. Besides, they imposed restrictions against those persons.
Also, on February, 3, the United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine of $2.175 billion. In particular, it contains long-range weapons such as a small diameter ground-launch bomb (GLSDB), which allows for high-precision strikes at a range of up to 150 km. However, it is not yet known when these weapons will arrive in Ukraine and whether it will be possible to use it for the previously announced counteroffensive in spring.
The very fact that Ukraine will receive precision-guided munitions that fly 70 kilometers farther than the HIMARS missiles has infuriated russian leaders. The kremlin did not come up with anything new, and threatened Ukraine with the seizure of new territories. If we seek to push the artillery of the Ukrainian armed forces to a distance that will not pose a threat to our territories, then the longer range weapons are supplied, the further away we will need to move from the territories that are part of our country," lavrov said.
However, Ukraine is not afraid of such statements. In Kyiv, they continue to plan to liberate all the occupied territories, and it requires, along with tanks, the armored vehicles, artillery, and long-range missiles. In particular, they can be used to destroy the logistics of the occupation troops.