The head of Ivano-Frankivsk oblast Union of Young Political Scientists told OPORA about possible falsifications and specific features of the election campaign in different regions of Ukraine.
The head of Ivano-Frankivsk oblast Union of Young Political Scientists told OPORA about possible falsifications and specific features of the election campaign in different regions of Ukraine.
Judging from the aggressive campaigning in districts, which we could observe on 30 July, this year campaign is going to be really tough.
Yes. First of all, it is influenced by resources which are allocated to candidates. Candidates rarely have their own resources which would be enough to conduct the election campaign. The average sum for single-member districts is 1,5 million dollars. They get this money from businessmen or other interested people. But we shall understand, that people which invest this money are waiting to get them back with interest. Besides that, if some strong candidates are competing within one district, they do everything to win at any cost.
Are there to appear any new ways to canvass voters this year?
This year, the same methods will be used as on the last elections with majoritarian system. They are proven already. Nobody looks for something new, all use the same old schemes. First of all - charity in order to become popular, collection of passport data, which will be later used for manipulations with votes. Beginning of the election campaign will be accompanied by black PR, because candidates will have only three month for the competition. As before, strange newspapers with publications against certain candidates and leaflets on behalf of candidates in order to discredit them will appear. As long as the administrative resource is very effective, it will also be used. The administrative resource will be used by both oppositional and pro-power political forces. We will see nothing new, because the rules remained the same, and candidates have no reason to become more fair and play honestly.
Which falsifications should we expect on election day? Which of them will be used in Prykarpattia oblast?
Political strategists and consultants that work with candidates, will not use any new technologies, including falsifications. They all will used proven methods only. Well-known "carousel" method is one of them. It will be used mainly in eastern and southern Ukraine. Many large enterprises are situated here, and people who work there can be easily manipulated. They will put bulletins for the certain candidate and make bulletins void. The latter method will be actively used in Prykarpattia. However, if experienced observers will work on polling stations, the majority of possible fraud will be used during the election campaign.
Candidates in single-member districts are unbelievably charitable in Prykarpattia now. It seems, that compete for the name of the greatest benefactor in the region.
This method of advertising a brand or an individual came from PR and political technologies. It proved itself as very effective – charity always touches the human soul. Everybody like this, and people are very loyal to such activities, although they understand that it is done in campaign purposes. In fact, candidates install new windows in schools, buy equipment for hospitals, and no matter if they win or not, all these presents will remain for the people. If the state didn't manage to buy equipment during 20 years, it doesn't matter who has bought it, and whether this candidate will win or not. The only important thing, is that this equipment will serve the people.
If the state didn't manage to buy equipment during 20 years, it doesn't matter who has bought it, and whether this candidate will win or not
Why are product sets so popular in eastern and central Ukraine, but in western Ukraine this method is so rarely used?
The people in western Ukraine have different mentality. These people more often visit Europe and contact European people. The level of political culture and education has always been higher in Western Ukraine. It was like a Provence for Ukraine, many ideas were produced here, although people in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk had to implement these ideas. But why is the method of giving out products so effective in the East? Because people there still have paternalistic way of thinking – there is a belief that someone shall come and give something. It's obvious. Even if some candidate s don't really support this method, their political strategists urge them to use it, in order not to be a blackspot against competitors.
Moreover, there are a lot of large enterprises in the East. If a person loses job at such enterprise, it's difficult to find any other job. Employers use this situation. Candidates talk to chairmen of these enterprises, not with voters. Chairmen, in their turn, use administrative influence and control their employees, make them vote for whom they need.
Is it possible to forecast the turnout today?
I think that the turnout will be quite low on the whole territory of the state, because people are very disappointed with the politicians. However, in Halychyna oblast, where the elections is not a procedure but a festivity, and people come together with families dressed in embroidered shirts, is expected the highest turnout. Ukrainians will vote also because we have such a character - we believe in miracles. And this belief makes people hope for changes after the election campaign, and motive them go to the polling station and vote, despite the experience of previous elections.
Civic monitoring conducted by OPORA - is a type of network activity, aimed at impartial assessment of the preparation and conduct of elections, as well as preventing violations through comprehensive civic action. Professional monitoring at all stages of the election process indirectly influences the quality of the campaign. The public opinion, both foreign and domestic is formed through gathering and spreading of information among the target audience. From a strategic perspective public monitoring of elections focuses upon improving the system and certain procedures. In 2012, during Parliamentary elections in Ukraine OPORA is carrying out a large-scale campaign of long- and short term observation, organizing a statistical vote-count by the results of voting with the proportional component of the electoral system on a basis of representative selection, will provide 100% coverage of polling stations by observers in separate single-mandate majoritarian districts.