The determination of single-seat electoral district lines at the end of 2012 became a starting point for the intensification of political activity of the certain subjects of election process, who act on the terrains of Chernihiv oblast. Civil Network OPORA has analyzed the activity of potential candidates and political parties during May and June in Chernihiv region in terms of electoral districts.
If to compare with other districts in Chernihiv oblast, a majority electoral district #205, which is situated in the oblast center, became a subject of the strongest political and information influence. Such conclusion was made on the basis of the amount of outdoor advertisements, among which were found the billboards with the images of Ukraine-Ahead! party of Natalia Korolevska; the Deputy Chairman of Chernihiv Oblast State Administration – Stanislav Prokopenko (Party of Regions); Chernihiv Oblast Council Deputy Vladyslav Atroshenko (non-party deputy); the incumbent Mayor - Oleksandr Sokolov (Party of Regions); and of the UDAR and party of Viktor Medvedchuk.
If to compare with other districts in Chernihiv oblast, a majority electoral district #205, which is situated in the oblast center, became a subject of the strongest political and information influence. Such conclusion was made on the basis of the amount of outdoor advertisements, among which were found the billboards with the images of Ukraine-Ahead! party of Natalia Korolevska; the Deputy Chairman of Chernihiv Oblast State Administration – Stanislav Prokopenko (Party of Regions); Chernihiv Oblast Council Deputy Vladyslav Atroshenko (non-party deputy); the incumbent Mayor - Oleksandr Sokolov (Party of Regions); and of the UDAR and party of Viktor Medvedchuk.
The bill on language, which was approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in the first reading, became a suitable pretext for tracing the political activity of the opposition. The first parties in oblast to react on these actions were Ukrainian National Party and All-Ukrainian union Svoboda, and later United opposition Fatherland.
It is noteworthy to mention that the unification of All-Ukrainian union Fatherland and political party Front for Change on the level of Chernihiv oblast is finished.
Moreover, the method of direct communication with the voters was mainly used by the representatives of the political party Democratic Alliance, which during the examined period conducted a number of fundraising actions for the election deposit.
Few public announcements were already made regarding the future nomination of candidates for the electoral district #205. In particular, the People’s Deputy Andriy Shevchenko, during the press-conference in Chernihiv, stated that Valeriy Dubil would be the candidate from the united opposition.
During the press conference People’s Deputy Oleg Zarubinskyi announced the name of another future candidate in the electoral district #205 from People’s Party. It will be the President of the football club Desna – Yurii Tymoshko. However, he has not yet shown any signs of public activity aimed at gaining the electoral support.
Generally speaking, high public activity of the parties in the district can be connected with the geographic aspect, because the offices of all oblast organizations are situated in the city. This explains why the territory of the district #205 is almost the only one where the party activity exceeded the activity of separate candidates. Oleksandr Sokolov and Valeriy Dubil were the most active candidates during the examined period.
Single member constituency #206 is the “hottest” district of Chernihiv oblast because the fight for electorate takes place both inside of the united opposition and between the players, who count on the support of the ruling party.
Public statement, which was made by Andriy Shevchenko, a representative of the United opposition Fatherland, regarding the nomination of Vitaliy Korzh for the MP candidate in this district influenced another potential candidate from opposition – Volodymyr Polishchuk. His activity significantly went down during the time period under research. However, it has not disappeared at all.
During the last two months the competition between Stanislav Prokopenko (Party of Regions) and Vladyslav Atroshenko (non-party deputy) for the place for outdoor advertisements could be noticed on the streets of Chernihiv. Also, both candidates were increasing their popularity with help of public speeches and charity events.
The most predicted candidates for deputies in the given district form other political forces are the following: Viktor Lazar - Deputy of the Oblast Council from the UDAR (according to the statement made by Vitaliy Klychko while talking to journalists in Chernihiv); Rayisa Yasochko – Deputy of Chernihiv Oblast Council from the Communist Party of Ukraine (the decision was made during the report and election conference of the CPU oblast organization in the beginning of June); Oleksandr Kyrychenko – the Head of People’s Party oblast organization (personally announced by Kyrychenko during the press conference in Chernihiv). However, the level of their information, social and political activity remains low, and sometimes is absent at all.
Thus, the highest activity during May and June was shown by Stanislav Prokopenko and Vladyslav Atroshenko. It was reflected in visual methods of work with the groups of voters, personal meetings, and “material encouragement” of electorate..
Single member constituency #207 leads in the areas of information, social and political activity. Igor Rybakov – the People’s Deputy of Ukraine and the Leader of the deputy group Reforms for the Future works in this district and at the moment has no rivals.
The activity of Mykhaylo Golyts, the Deputy of the Kyiv City Council from People’s Party, was noticed in the district #208. He intensified his activity right after the lines of majority electoral districts were announced.
Oleh Lyashko – the Leader of Radical Party - continues his active work. His media presence in different publications is noticeable.
The activity of new candidates for the elections was not observed in this constituency.
Starting from May, political activity of Ivan Kurovskyi (unaffiliated candidate) was intensified on the territory of single-seat electoral district #209. In Chernihiv expert circles Leonid Yakovyshyn, the head of Earth and Freedom Society, is included into the list of potential candidates, however, his media activity in municipal and regional mass media is very low.
Absolute leader in accomplished political work in voting district #210 is unaffiliated Oblast Council Deputy Mykola Rud’kovkyi. The intensity of his activity increases with the proximity of elections. Strong social and political activity is shown by Anatoliy Myroshnychenko, Chrnihiv Oblast Council Deputy from Party of Regions.
People’s Party of Ukraine, Communist Party of Ukraine, Party of Regions, and All-Ukrainian union Svoboda demonstrated their activity in the district as well.
It should be mentioned that the above mentioned parties were the most active during May and June.
Conclusions
· The study of social and political situation in Chernihiv oblast shows the rise in activity of the main regional political powers. A considerable amount of information grounds in the form of national holidays, memorable days and highly publicized state legislative decisions constitute the main reason of this process.
· During the examined period there was no recorded regular activity of the new candidates for elections by majoritarian system in Chernihiv oblast. The same political actors, who enjoy the support of local government, show active performance. In future, the appearance of new candidates from the United opposition Fatherland in the constituencies, regarding which the agreement has not been reached yet, should be expected.
· There is a possibility that new majoritary candidates from other political projects (including «samovysuvanci») will emerge, despite the fact that there is no enough time to launch a full-fledged pre-election campaign in any constituency of Chernihiv region.
· The majority of candidates, who worked in the voting districts during the previous periods under research, significantly broadened the range of methods in their work with electorate. It confirms that the large-scale election campaign 2012 on the territory of Chernihiv oblast has already taken off.
Reference:
Civic monitoring conducted by OPORA - is a type of network activity, aimed at impartial assessment of the preparation and conduct of elections, as well as preventing violations through comprehensive civic action. Professional monitoring at all stages of the election process indirectly influences the quality of the campaign. The public opinion, both foreign and domestic is formed through gathering and spreading of information among the target audience. From a strategic perspective public monitoring of elections focuses upon improving the system and certain procedures. In 2012, during Parliamentary elections in Ukraine OPORA implements a large-scale campaign of long- and short term observation, organizes a statistical vote-count by the results of voting with the proportional component of the electoral system on a basis of representative selection, will provide 100% coverage of polling stations by observers in separate single-mandate majoritarian districts. OPORA observers will work in all 225 electoral districts, and 3,500 activists will join them on the voting day. Organization will use the latest means of spreading information on observation results, including infographics and interactive maps.