Both opposition and pro-power parties declare their intention to win 2012 Parliamentary elections by focusing on majoritarian districts. They all understand that it won't be easy, therefore we expect maximum mobilization of all possible resources, especially those which control precinct election commissions.
After ex-president Viktor Yushchenko had terminated his powers, Sumy oblast became profoundly provincial, and almost nobody in the capital is interested in its political life. If Petro Yushchenko, the elder brother of ex-president, remained informal leader of the region during five years of Orange regime, today the political climate of Sumy oblast is influenced by some other people besides the current governor Yurii Chmyr who has relatively stable political and law enforcement authorities’ vertical.
The MP of Ukraine from the Party of Regions, Andrii Derkach, is today virtually the only favorite in the election district #159 centered in Hluhov city. Centrist and pragmatist - this is how he was called during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. Ex-president and godfather of the MP from the Party of Regions once said the following: "Andrii Derkach – is our future Putin". Today he has extensive international connections and is able to keep in a balance everything connected to Russian interests in Ukraine. Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) (UOC (MP)) in Konotop delegated him on election of new Patriarch Kyryl of Russian Orthodox Church in 2009. The desire to remain his position in Ukrainian political arena, partition of pro-russian territory and open sympathy to UOC of Moscow Patriarchate, showing himself as a proprietor of Sumy oblast to the President Yanukovich - such instruments satisfy personal ambitions of Derkach Jr. in the current political game. Sometimes, at the cost of his political party's and its leader's reputation. The local branch of the Party of Regions, which was manipulated by Andrii Derkach for the sake of his business interests, destabilized the situation in the city due to populist appeals of party members not to pay allegedly inflated utility bills during the local elections in 2010. Sumy DRC (the Dictatorship Resistance Committee) can hardly find a competitive opponent for Andrii Derkach, and the only question is - from which party will be nominated the politician.
There was a lot of discussion around the election district #160 centered in Shostka city, and there are still some issues concerning its formation and logistics. Sumy region Governor Yuriy Chmyr had been working in Shostka for a long time, and is highly rated there. If not the President's prohibition for all heads of state administrations to stand as candidates, he would probably run in this district. Andrii Derkach wanted his protégé, young and ambitious assistant Oleh Boyarintsev, who is a deputy head of Oblast Council now, to run in this district. However, his chances considerably decreased after Yurii Chmyr and Andrii Derkach started their political competition. After the CEC had separated the district of Shostka and Konotop, Serhii Talala, the Chairman of Ridnyi Krai Foundation became a leader in this district, and is advertised in Konotop region now. It is quite possible, that Serhii Talala will be a candidate from the party in power, but presented as a self-nominated candidates. However, the current Mayor of Shostka Mykola Noha, who has a reputation of great local manager, is said to be chosen by governor for the promotion.
Another two Mayors - Hennadii Minaev in Sumy and Yurii Bova in small Trostianets, will probably stand as candidates in district #157 centered in Sumy and #162 centered in Okhtyrtsi city respectively. In the district #157 in Sumy the highest rating has the current Mayor Hennadii Minaev, which came first in the party list of Ridne Misto, a faction that has the third part of seats in the local council. Concerning Yurii Bova, he will be a main competitor (under the flag of Nataliia Korolevska's Ukraine - Forward!) for pro-power Hryhorii Dashutin, who gained the loyalty of the governor Yurii Chmur. Despite he entered the Party of Regions only on the 2 of June, he managed to convince Mr. Chmyr that he is able no only to finance his own campaign in majoritarian district, but also to provide financial support to Sumy oblast branch of the Party of Regions.
The participation of Mayor Hennadii Minayev in the elections is still under the discussion. He has the biggest potential - up to 30% of trust, and his close competitors - Chairman of the Ukrainian Academy of Banking, Anatolii Yepifanov (from the Party of Regions), and a potential candidate from DRC, Oleh Medunytsia, are not likely to get more than 10%. However, as of middle July, 2012, none of politicians declared their will to stand as a candidate in the district #157 centered in Sumy.
The city is overall in opposition. A politician, who will openly stand as a candidate from the party in power, will hardly receive 15% of votes, as long as the Party of Regions has never had a rating higher than 10%. Accordingly, the candidate from All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland has 100% to win is Sumy. However, this party has no more or less charismatic leader. Since a well-known politician Oleksandr Volkov wasn't included to the team of DRC majoritarian candidates, opposition had lost a sponsor which will finance only his own campaign now.
The least complicated is situation in the district #161 with a center in Romny city. The favorite here is a candidate from governor, Oleksandr Sayenko, ex-member of BYT, a famous entrepreneur in Romny, which is holding campaign like everyone else, by presenting something useful and innovative for the community, but usually financed from the budget but not by him personally. For example, in the center of Lypova Dolyna town, which is included to this election district, was opened a mini playground Kazka (Fairy Tale). Almost all officials of the district were present on its unveiling: Deputy governor Ihor Yahovdyk, and Oleksandr Sayenko himself, who traditionally used the event for personal advertising, ordered local mass media hidden advertising, and presented every child with a package of marshmallows produced by his own Food factory in Romny. Only Volodymyr Shulha, a candidate from the DRC, can virtually compete Mr. Sayenko. He is also the former leader of Sumy KVN-movement (Klub Vesyólykh i Nakhódchivykh or Ka-Ve-En, "Club of the Funny and Inventive"), a deputy of Sumy oblast council, and is responsible for ideological views of All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland in Sumy oblast.
The biggest issue for elections in Sumy - is the election district #158 centered in Bilopillia city. There are still no obvious leaders as well as clearly stated position of the opposition and the party in power concerning candidates, and they probably will not be announced until the end of campaign. Oleksandr Volkov, who financed own oblast office of All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland for three last years, had first started his election campaign in Sumy rayon what caused certain confusion. He didn't miss the chance to offend allies in opposition saying "little front vagrant". After leaflets with picture of him and Ms. Tymoshenko together, a part of party members objected to his participation in the elections using the opposition logo. Mr. Yatseniuk took it as a personal offense and promised to prevent him from entering the Dictatorship Resistance Committee. He kept the promise. On 11 July the member of BYT, Andrii Shevchenko, published a message in Twitter: "For those who is interested: Fatherland party didn't approve Volkov as a candidate from the opposition - he will stand as a self-nominated candidate. Volkov himself told me this." - wrote Shevchenko.
It is known, that Mr. Volkov was the advisor of ex-president Leonid Kuchma and had a great influence on him. Later he started cooperation with Yuliia Tymoshenko. In 2004 he acted as a middleman between her and Berezovskyi, when London exile financed Orange revolution. According to the information of UP (Ukrayinska Pravda, internet newspaper), Tymoshenko held secret talks with Yanukovich and Akhmetov in Volkov's country house during the Revolution. However, while being under the pressure, she didn't include him to the election list of BYT in 2006. Volkov named her "professional sharper" and accused of betrayal. Despaired, he announced creation of the faction "figs and ficos".
Oleksandr Volkov, who is going to use oppositional talks of Fatherland, had promised to build a playground in Bilopillia until the late July. In the other village he presented a microphone and notebook to the village club. Local Vidikon Tele-Radio Company broadcasted 3-minute report about Mr. Volkov.
The Mayor of Sumy, Hennadii Minayev, on 12 July 2012 had left the following comment on the charitable activity of Oleksandr Volkov, of course in his hilarious style: "Uncle Sasha, please, establish playgrounds on Prokofieva St., on the right side of Kharkovska St. (4 items), in SKD, (don't establish in Zelenko - I have made some there already), in Parizhska Communa (Paris Commune), in Pryshyb, in Basy (2 items), in Khimgorodok (4 items), in Vasylevka, in Zamostianska, in 12-th micro district (2 items). (Translator - listed names of streets and districts used by people in everyday life, and some invented joking names). Your certificates on playgrounds are neither here nor there - we want playgrounds!!! Wireless microphones we also don't need, but give a notebook to every school, don't be a miser!!! The fund is international, isn't it:)".
Oleksandr Kostenko became a candidate from the party in power in this district. He is also a Chairman of the Charitable fund "Ty ne odyn - my razom"("You are not alone - we are together"), which is already giving presents to doctors in Kostopil rayon. He also promised presents for citizens of Bilopil. The generosity of the new patron is really impressive: at least 187 thousand UAH on presents (emergency car and bags of the medical attendant) plus the same sum was spent on the mass media which was brought to Krasnopillia. It's not less than 300 thousand UAH together. And all at once! Here are some facts about the aforementioned charitable fund. The State Registrar provided the following answer to our question: the fund was registered at Soborna st. 36, office 10, on 12 March 2012. Some 5 days later, Oleksandr Kostenko he gathered some hundred thousand UAH, approved the program of the Fund, and managed to come to Krasnopil with gifts. We have found the address of the Fund's registration. Two girls and one boy were sitting in a small room. They refused to talk about the charitable fund and answered all our questions like partisans: "All the information is secret". However, the suspicious generosity of Oleksandr Kostenko may be easily explained: he hopes to be a candidate from the party in power in this single-member district #158. On the central square of Bilopillia city we can find a plate, saying that the square is reconstructed on demand of Bilopillia City Council, but at the expense of the candidate.
The biggest threat for fair elections may become election commissions corrupted by pro-governmental candidates. It's difficult to reveal some violations, but there is a way out: we need to educate people, and explain them how to distinguish corrupt manipulation and how to resist them
They will probably try to make use of the administrative resource in the region, although it's a bit overestimated now. However, such violations may be used by the opposition to justify themselves, if they lose in single-member districts. Today, voters can hardly understand why they should vote for the opposition - they hardly showed themselves in the action. Therefore, there will be no physical or informational pressure. The biggest threat for fair elections may become election commissions corrupted by pro-governmental candidates. It's difficult to reveal some violations, but there is a way out: we need to educate people, and explain them how to distinguish corrupt manipulation and how to resist them
The main problem of Sumy Authorities is the absence of dialog with the public. In fact, authorities don't not fulfill their communicative function, and that little trust which existed on the beginning of their work vanished. People don't trust authorities, and authorities don't know how to communicate with the people. Thus, we can see a model of "occupational dialog". All advertising campaigns which would work in usual circumstances lose all their power. It's obvious, that generally this team has worked more hard on improvement of the infrastructure of the country than the previous. They had really built a lot. However, the image of authorities catastrophically suffers.
The sociological poll, conducted by the Center for Regional Policy Studies in Sumy, showed for how much money Sumy citizens are ready to sell their votes on the upcoming Parliamentary elections. 83,9% declared that they are principally not going to sell their votes, 0,6% are ready to sell their votes by 50 UAH, 2,2% - from 100 to 200 UAH, and most of people which are ready to sell their votes on the elections (6,1%), will agree for more than 500 UAH.
It’s obvious, that people still regard unfulfilled promises of MPs as the major problem of the election process, but the last poll showed that such factors as non-compliance of election conduction with democratic standards became also problematic. This statement received less percent on previous polls.
Distrust of the elections has grown, and has increased such a statement, as I have no influence on the central government - 90.5% of Sumy citizens.
Talking about the level of distrust towards the elections, showed by the Center for Regional Policy Studies through their May poll in Sumy, we should understand that this is not a peculiarity of upcoming elections, but the mentality of Ukrainian voters. On the contrast to European or American voters, Ukrainians have zero level of trust, and European - 100%. In Europe it decreases due to the information about violations during the election campaign. In Ukraine, voters have no trust to the elections from the very beginning.