OPORA alanyzed post-war problems and their influence onto the election process, and prepared basic recommendations for challange management for the future elections. Obviously, the voting can take place only after the hostilities end and the circumstances of reconstruction of Ukraine are created. However, it is clear now that Ukraine will face such problems as major security challenges, limited budget resources, disrupted logistics in the country, and the need to ensure the electoral rights of internally displaced persons and refugees.
The regular elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine should be held on October 29, 2023. However, their terms and conditions will be affected by the scenarios of the end of the war with russia and the removal of the martial law. OPORA has prepared an analysis of the following three key scenarios for the preparation and conduct of national elections:
1. de-occupation of the territories of Ukraine captured by russia from February 24, 2022;
2. complete de-occupation of all territories of Ukraine, including Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
3. "freezing" and preservation of russia's illegal control over the territories it seized from February 24, 2022 to the present day.
According to OPORA senior analyst Oleksandr Kliuzhev, democratic elections can be held only when voters and other subjects of the electoral process are safe, and the state can ensure the work of its bodies on the territory of the country. "The full-scale aggression of russia against Ukraine continues; therefore, now the discussion about the upcoming elections seems detached from reality. However, it is necessary to prepare for the restoration of the democratic election process at the level of plans, draft decisions and legislative acts. The better the problems of the first post-war elections are predicted and worked out, the easier and more conflict-free Ukraine will be able to organize them after its victory. Therefore, it is necessary to proceed from the principle that 'elections will be held only when there are suitable conditions for them, but preparations for them should never stop,'" he said.
First of all, one must remember that different territories of Ukraine will be unequally prepared for democratic elections. The exclusion of some of them from the process of national elections will threaten the legitimacy of voting; therefore, the legislation of Ukraine should contain detailed and comprehensive procedures for establishing the impossibility of holding elections in certain territories, and the electoral system for national elections should take into account the interests of citizens mobile inside the country as much as possible.
Common challenges for post-war elections in any scenario will be ensuring the electoral rights of internally displaced persons and refugees. This will affect the choice of the optimal electoral system, since under the current proportional electoral system, certain electoral regions will receive excessive representation in the parliament due to IDPs (the number of mandates allocated depends on the voters’ turnout). In addition, many military voters will be on duty near Ukraine's borders or along the conflict lines, which will require additional procedures to ensure their voting rights. At the level of legislation and practice, it will be necessary to ensure that these groups of voters have access to election information, and candidates must be given a real opportunity to campaign among these voters.
Because of the significant deterioration of the socio-economic and financial situation, as well as unemployment, the state will have limited budgetary resources for elections, and disrupted logistics in the country will complicate the organization of voting. The state will also face significant needs in the restoration of the electoral infrastructure, such as premises for voting and the work of election commissions or holding meetings with voters. It is critically important to establish effective control over the use of budget funds and international donor aid aimed at organizing elections, as well as restoring and ensuring high standards of state control over political and election finances. It is necessary not only to preserve the state funding of parties, but also to increase such support.
Considerable efforts must be made to restore the state registration of voters: independent audit of the State Register of Voters and training of new competent employees. The operational task will be to radically strengthen the inclusiveness of the election process for people with disabilities who suffered from Russian aggression.
At the same time, a significant deterioration in the material well-being of voters will contribute to various forms of bribery, which will require, on the one hand, a coordinated response of law enforcement agencies, and on the other hand, a conscious and honest struggle between candidates.
It will be necessary to restore the damaged and destroyed infrastructure of television and radio broadcasting throughout the country and to provide assistance to the Ukrainian mass media under the programs for the restoration of Ukraine, since their functioning is an important condition for holding democratic elections.
Another common problem for all three scenarios of the development of events is theelection security and prevention of violations of public order. The illegal circulation of weapons, worsening of the criminal situation, threat of terrorist sabotage will increase the risks of violent confrontations during the elections and, accordingly, will require special training programs for employees of the National Police of Ukraine.
After the de-occupation of all territories of Ukraine (scenario No. 2), the key challenges will be overcoming the consequences of long-term occupation and carrying out full-fledged political integration (restoring infrastructure, countering residual manifestations of armed resistance and terrorism, providing citizens of Ukraine with the necessary documents and returning de-occupied communities to the unified information space of Ukraine). lustration and transitional justice. This should be done at the stage of preparation for the first post-war elections in the de-occupied territories. Given the fact that Ukrainian political parties have not been active in these regions for a long time, the electoral system for parliamentary elections after the de-occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine is a debatable issue (since the current Electoral Code provides for the use of a proportional electoral system with voting for open electoral lists in regional electoral districts ).
Issues of political integration, lustration, and transitional justice will also be inherent in the process of preparing national elections after partial de-occupation, but they are much less acute compared to the full de-occupation scenario. The preparatory stage, as in the case of the complete de-occupation of all territories, will involve the restoration of the authorities’ activities, basic services for citizens and infrastructure. However, it can be implemented more quickly than in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea. Due to the large-scale destruction of cities by the russian army and the prospects for the existence of a "gray" zone between the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the russian military, the territories where it will be impossible to organize voting after the deoccupation until the February 23 line are uncertain. Taking into account the preservation of the contact line, there will be a high probability of the resumption of hostilities in the front-line territories and, accordingly, the disruption of voting in certain communities.
A key feature of Scenario No. 3 (“Freezing”) is the extremely high security risks to the election process associated with russian aggression. The preservation of russian control over a significant territory in 5 regions of Ukraine will threaten the resumption of full-scale hostilities and missile strikes at any stage of the election process. This will require the maximum provision of the premises of election commissions with civil protection shelters. In the conditions of the growing scale of internal displacement and the impossibility of conducting quality voting in 5 electoral regions, the application of the current proportional electoral system with open lists will be doubtful. Therefore, the need for special procedures for IDPs and refugees will be significantly greater.
Read a detailed analysis of post-war problems and their impact on the election process, as well as recommendations on challenge management at the link