A plausible factor that prevents Ukraine's partners from responding quickly and effectively to challenges is the fear of an escalation of the conflict and a direct clash with Russia.
In May 2024, Volodymyr Zelensky said that every decision of the allies to provide Ukraine with weapons was a year late. Such delays in delivery have indeed led to the fact that as of the beginning of July 2024, 14 Ukrainian brigades were understaffed and unable to perform combat missions. A likely factor that prevents Ukraine's partners from responding quickly and effectively to challenges is the fear of an escalation of the conflict and a direct clash with Russia. This is what the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, said this July.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has set "red lines" in an attempt to force Western countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. However, the crossing of these lines did not cause the promised reaction. On the contrary, the UN General Assembly has repeatedly recognized Ukraine's right to self-defense, given the violation of the UN Charter by the Russian Federation. At the same time, many countries still do not provide Ukraine with weapons for defense for fear of further escalation. 

In this article, Civil Network OPORA analyzed how the position of Ukraine's partners has changed — from unwillingness to provide heavy weapons to the transfer of the first F-16 aircraft to Ukraine at the end of July 2024.

Year of Discussions on Tanks and Armored Vehicles 

Before Russia's full-scale invasion, in February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that his country would continue to prevent escalation and would not supply Ukraine with weapons. However, later, his position changed. The decision to supply armored vehicles was made in February 2023 — almost a year after the outbreak of the Big War.  According to Scholz, this “will not cause an escalation, as Ukraine uses tanks for protection.”

On the other hand, Russia has repeatedly stressed that they would regard the transfer of Western tanks to Ukraine as an escalation and the crossing of "red lines". Meanwhile, the first Leopard 2 tanks arrived in Ukraine from Poland in February 2023, but this did not lead to the fulfillment of Russia's threats to strike NATO countries.

Another problem faced by Ukraine after the adoption of political decisions on the transfer of weapons by partners was delays in its delivery.  According to the British think tank RUSI, on the eve of the summer Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, it took partners about 4 months to make the decision to supply weapons. In other words, before the beginning of the active operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, only a part of the necessary equipment arrived, and the Ukrainian brigades did not always have enough time to train with them.

Storm in Crimea

In 2014, Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula, committing the first act of open aggression against Ukraine. In 2018, the Crimean Bridge was built, which connected the peninsula with the territory of the Russian Federation and became a symbol of imperial claims to lands that Russia considers historically their own. In February 2022, it was from Crimea that Russian troops launched an offensive against the South of Ukraine, and the bridge was used to support their military group in the occupied territory of Ukraine.

Therefore, one of the priorities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces was the destruction of Russian military infrastructure in Crimea. Realizing this, in 2022 and in 2023, the leaders of the Russian Federation repeatedly  stated that any strikes on the peninsula from Western weapons would lead to a "nuclear response" and a declaration of direct war on Western countries. The Russian rationale was that Crimea was supposedly Russian territory, and such an attack would be an existential threat to the Russian Federation.

However, Ukraine's partners recognize its territorial integrity and do not limit the use of Western weapons in the occupied territories. In 2024, both the Pentagon spokesman and the UK Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine could use weapons in Crimea. 

In return, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has repeatedly recognized that Ukrainian troops attacked the territory of Crimea with British Storm Shadow missiles. However, there was no direct military reaction against Ukraine's partners, and threats remained only threats. 

Protect the Ukrainian sky

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has repeatedly called on international partners to "close the skies": appeals were heard from both President Zelensky and local councils. The lack of modern air defense systems significantly reduced Ukraine's capability to defend its cities and villages from Russian attacks. 

The supply of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine in April 2023 was dictated by the need to protect Ukrainian energy facilities from Russian attacks, which intensified in October 2022. The decision to transfer air defense and F-16 aircraft was preceded by discussions about possible escalation and risks for NATO countries, as well as the need to train the Ukrainian military. 

As for the F-16, in March 2022, the US administration insisted that the transfer of these aircraft to Ukraine would not change the parity of forces in the sky. And yet, in August 2023, the United States gave permission for the start of training of Ukrainian pilots and the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine, which should take place by the fall of 2024.

In May 2024, the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark said that Ukraine had every right to use the fighters transferred by these countries against targets on the territory of Russia - for self-defense. As for the United States, in July 2024, in an interview with the Voice of America, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said that Ukraine would decide how to use the F-16 on its sovereign territory. 

On 31 July, the BBC reported that the first batch of F-16 aircraft arrived in Ukraine. According to the publication, the process of their receipt took almost a year and a half. At the same time, Ukraine began to ask partners for F-16s in 2022. In the summer of 2023, the United States adopted a draft law on defense policy in the amount of $840 billion, some of which were to be used for training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. 

Assessing the risks from the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, the allied countries are likely to take into account the threats that may arise in the event of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO. This leads to the limitation of military assistance, and, accordingly, to the insecurity of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. In April 2024, Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Trypillia CHPP in the Kyiv region had been destroyed because "the missiles had run out to protect it." Besides, according to experts, in the winter of 2024-2025, another 5-6 million citizens may leave the territory of Ukraine due to blackouts. In order to completely close the sky from Russian attacks, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine needs 25 Patriot systems. 

According to the BBC, the cost of one Patriot system is just over $1 billion, so 25 systems cost about $27 billion. On the other hand, at the public summit "Security guarantees for Ukrainian democracy in war", held in June 2024 in Kyiv, experts said that the partner countries spent about $46 billion to support Ukrainian refugees. If these funds were invested in air defense and missile defense (BMD), the critical situation in the field of energy and mass migration could be prevented.

Self-defense beyond their borders

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has been politically limited in the full exercise of its right to self-defense, in particular regarding the destruction of military targets on the territory of the aggressor country. A number of Western governments (for example, the United States, Germany and Denmark) did not support the idea of using Western weapons to strike targets in Russia. Probably, such caution was associated with fears that the transfer of combat troops to the territory of the Russian Federation would push the Kremlin to aggression against NATO countries. That is why on May 31, 2022, US President Joe Biden announced the transfer of HIMARS missile systems to Ukraine, but with a restriction that allowed their use only within the borders of Ukraine. 

Subsequently, the rhetoric about Ukraine's right to self-defense beyond its borders began to change. One of the first such statements in May 2023 was made by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, but some partners still adhered to the policy of restrictions for some time. 

As soon as in 2024, restrictions on the use of Western weapons by Ukraine were opposed by Poland, France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Canada, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Latvia. These countries believe that strikes at military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation are a legitimate part of the Ukrainian self-defense strategy. 

Also, in the first half of 2024, Russia attacked Ukrainian power plants, destroying about 9 of the 18 GW of power generation that Ukraine had to rely on to go through the winter of 2023-2024. At the same time, the Russian army tried to open a new front in the north of Kharkiv region — since Ukraine could not strike at the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russians managed to concentrate troops in the border areas.  

In May 2024, the White House recognized that Ukraine has the right to strike Russian military targets near the border. However, there are still restrictions on strikes deep into Russian territory — including on most military airfields from which attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine take place. Recently, US officials said that if Russia tries to expand the front, then Ukraine will be allowed to fire at a greater distance.

Yet, in July 2024, after another Russian attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, in particular the Okhmatdyt National Children's Hospital, the United States and Germany at the NATO summit stressed that their position had not changed — Ukraine "cannot use Western weapons deep into the territory of the Russian Federation." The existence of restrictions was also confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defense, although on July 10, Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukraine had received permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets on Russian territory.

Conclusions

As you can see, the "red lines" established by Russia, designed to slow down the supply of weapons to Ukraine, remain only threats, and quite flexible — after decisive actions of partners, they move further and further. For example, in October 2022, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that providing Ukraine with modern heavy weapons, long-range weapons or powerful weapons would become a "red line" for Russia. However, Ukraine received weapons, and there was no reaction from Russia against the providing countries.

Another tool that Russia uses for pressure is nuclear blackmail. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin seeks to force the West to stop military support for Ukraine,  but is unlikely to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Some high-ranking officials of the allied countries also speak about the inconsistency of Russia's statements. Thus, in February 2024, the then British Foreign Secretary David Cameron noted that "the danger of escalation is illusory. Britain was the first to provide everything from anti-tank weapons to artillery and tanks, and now long-range weapons like Storm Shadow missiles. Every time Putin saber-rattles, frightening with escalation, it's empty rhetoric. ” 

Today, the speed of supplying weapons depends not only on Ukraine's ability to defend itself, but also on where the border between the democratic world and the world of dictatorship will be located. Therefore, in their policies, Ukraine's partners should focus on strategic goals rather than short-term political interests. 

Kateryna Mikhalevska, Junior Analyst at Civil Network OPORA for Espresso