Last week (June 19–25), an armed rebellion took place in Russia – a column of military equipment set out for Moscow. However, through negotiations mediated by Lukashenko, the Kremlin managed to stop the rebels on the outskirts of the Russian capital.
Ukraine said that in response to the difficult military situation at the front, Russia had planted mines at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and was ready to blow it up.
The European Commission provided a positive interim opinion on Ukraine’s fulfillment of the EU membership requirements. In addition, Ukraine will be one step closer to NATO at the end of the Vilnius summit, and will receive another $60 billion for recovery and reconstruction.
Prigozhin's Mutiny: the Kremlin Is Weak In Resolving Internal Conflicts
On June 23–24, the leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his soldiers tried to have a military “rebellion,” which ended in agreements between the Kremlin and the owner of the military company. Thus, on June 23, Prigozhin said that the Russian regular army had stricken the rear areas of the Wagners, so 25,000 PMC fighters went to "deal with arbitrariness" calling this campaign a “march of justice”.
Wagner fighters on military vehicles quickly advanced through the territory of Russia. As soon as in the morning of June 24, Prigozhin announced the takeover of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, and threatened to continue the campaign. During Saturday, June 24, the militants moved towards Moscow, while taking down the aircrafts of the Russian regular army. They also seized military facilities in Voronezh and took control over 4,800 square kilometers of Russian territory.
The Kremlin's official authorities were noticeably nervous. Vladimir Putin said that the “march” was a “stab in the back” for the country and the people, after which he urgently left Moscow for Valdai. Russian oligarchs and politicians also left the capital, and the key mouthpieces of Russian propaganda — Slutskaya, Zakharova, Volodin, Medvedev — encouraged people to unite around President Putin.
Similar statements were published by the generals of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Besides, the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation opened a criminal case for organizing an armed insurgency; a counter-terrorist operation regime was introduced in Moscow, and the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, allegedly sent his troops to suppress the “insurgency”.
However, 200 km away from Russia’s capital, Yevgeny Prigozhin decided to turn back the columns of his mercenaries. He said, “The time has come that blood may be shed.” In addition, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus said that Alexander Lukashenko made an agreement with Prigozhin on the de-escalation of the conflict on the terms of “absolutely beneficial and acceptable solution to the situation.”
According to Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, the criminal case against Prigozhin will be closed, and he will go to Belarus. Also, the Russian authorities promised not to prosecute the Wagnerites participating in the mutiny. At the same time, Peskov refused to comment on the reshuffle in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, although several informants of Ukrainska Pravda in the special services suggested that Prigozhin could be promised the removal from the positions of Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, and other officials who the Wagner PMC owner conflicted with.
Prigozhin’s “mutiny” highlighted the weakness of Russia’s official authorities, their inability to effectively respond to internal conflicts and counteract significantly to the actions of militants, with no military reserves in the aggressor’s rear. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Russia’s masters have no control over anything inside their country.
“In one day, they lost several of their million-size cities, and showed to all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs, and what's not how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, the arsenals with weapons,” he said.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that the “campaign of the Wagnerites” highlighted the issues in the Russian Federation. They said that the Kremlin is now in a state of deep instability, and Prigozhin’s coup exposed weaknesses, and will almost certainly worsen the morale of the Russian military in Ukraine.
The promises to further ensure physical security of the Wagner leader sound dubious, too. Because the words of the Kremlin are usually worthless. CNN journalists believe that Putin does not forgive traitors and, quite possibly, Prigozhin will be “killed in Belarus”.
At the same time, Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, said that Prigozhin’s actions were the first stage of dismantling the Putin system. He reports that Russia has a group of persons dissatisfied with Putin’s security forces, officials, and oligarchs, and the “Rostov speed march” showed the serious intentions, opportunities, and the conditions for the beginning of the transit of power.
“Anything that might go wrong in Russia will go wrong, and the Prigozhin case may or might have triggered processes with unpredictable consequences. The countdown has begun,” Danilov said.
Nuclear Risks: Occupiers Mine ZNPP, Putin Brags About Nuclear Triad
Last week, the issue of nuclear safety in Ukraine escalated due to the Kremlin’s alleged intentions to mine the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. According to the Chief Intelligence Agency (GUR), the occupiers mined the cooler of the power plant, and the detonation plan for Zaporizhzhia NPP has been fully developed and approved. The head of GUR Kirill Budanov said that the Russian troops moved the explosives-full vehicles near the four of the six power units.
On June 22, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in an emergency address, confirmed the information about the mining of the power plant and added that all available evidence will be transferred to Ukraine’s partners in Europe, America, China, Brazil, India, the Arab world, and Africa.
“After the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and deliberate attacks by terrorists on other dams and energy facilities, no one in the world should have any illusions about Russia for a long time to come,” Zelensky said.
The Ukrainian side is confident that Russia is capable of causing a nuclear catastrophe in case of failures on the battlefield. It is exactly what the aggressor did with the Kakhovka HPP. In addition, last week the Russians tried to strike with the “Kinzhals” to target the dam in Kryvyi Rih. Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, Mykhailo Podolyak, stressed that Russia considered a large-scale terrorist attack on the ZNPP as a way to stop the Ukrainian counterattack and create a deserted sanitary “gray zone” fixed for years to come as part of the territorial status quo without a ceasefire.
Podolyak also called for an active response from the global world, which should clearly outline the consequences for Russia in the event of a nuclear catastrophe. Similarly, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry appealed to the international community to properly assess the aggressor’s actions.
“We insist on the need to recognize Russia as a terrorist state and ensure the inescapable political, economic, and legal consequences for all the crimes and illegal actions they commit,” the ministry said.
On June 23, the United States and Albania convened the UN Security Council on the situation at the ZNPP. Russian representative Vassily Nebenzia accused Ukraine of “staged provocations” and compared the mining of the power plant with Bucha and Kakhovka HPP, where Ukraine allegedly arranged the crimes to accuse Russia.
At the same time, the Ukrainian permanent representative to the UN, Serhiy Kyslytsia, emphasized the obvious motives that Russia had for the catastrophes. According to him, the RF “is ready to apply the scorched-earth tactic in response to the deteriorating military situation on the ground in the captured lands they doubt they can hold.”
In response to possible actions of the aggressor, a resolution was introduced in the US Senate, where the authors propose to consider the actions of Russia or Belarus as an attack on NATO if they lead to radioactive contamination of the territory of the allies. The resolution states that it applies to the destruction of nuclear facilities and the direct use of nuclear weapons.
In parallel, Russia is resorting to nuclear escalation. At a meeting with graduates of military universities, Vladimir Putin announced that “in the near future, the first launchers of the Sarmat complex with a new heavy missile will enter the combat duty.” He also reiterated the effectiveness of the development of the nuclear triad for strategic deterrence and maintaining the global balance of power.
When asked about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC that he could not be sure of Putin, a man who had lost touch with reality. At the same time, the President of Ukraine stressed that “if he [Putin] does not stop threatening the world with nuclear weapons, the world will find a format for depriving it of vital functions.”
According to Mikhaylo Podolyak, the presence or absence of nuclear weapons in Russia should not affect the general equation of war and serve as an impetus for surrender.
At the same time, Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized that the world should not allow Russia to win, and compared the aggressor with a wild beast that needs to be hunted down and shot because “he is accustomed to eating human flesh.”
Ukraine Is Getting Closer to NATO, the EU and ATACMS, and Russia Receives a New Package of Sanctions
On July 11–12, a NATO summit will be held in Vilnius. It may deliver critical decisions on Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance. According to the Ambassador of Ukraine to NATO, Natalia Halibarenko, following the summit, Ukraine wants to receive an invitation or at least a commitment to consider the time frame and modalities of our membership in the Alliance.
Ukrainian diplomats have been actively working on this over the past few months. And not without success. Thus, on June 22, Dmytro Kuleba, without giving any details, assured that the Vilnius summit would make Ukraine one step closer to NATO membership. According to the Minister, one question only remains open – of “How broad it (this step — ed.) is going to be.” He also said that the making the decision “is in itself an achievement.”
At the same time, last week we learned that the French authorities now consider Ukraine’s accession to NATO “as a separate security guarantee.” It will disable any further replications of the Russian invasion. The UK supported a simplified procedure for Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance, which eliminates the need to implement the Membership Action Plan (MAP), which could take several decades. In contrast, Germany does not support the idea but promises long-term security guarantees to Ukraine.
It must added that the Pentagon overestimated the cost of assistance to Ukraine which they have provided since February 2022, by $6.2 billion. It may mean that the U.S. has more additional funds which need to be coordinated between the White House and Congress. Therefore, another package of financial assistance for Ukraine may not yet come forward.
In addition, the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee supported the bipartisan H.Res. 488, urging the Biden administration to immediately provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. Bipartisan approval in the committee allows it to be put to a vote in the House of Representatives, and subsequently in the Senate.
On June 22, the European Commission published a generally positive oral assessment of Ukraine’s fulfillment of the requirements for EU membership. Thus, Brussels believes that Kyiv has fully met two of the seven conditions necessary to open the membership negotiations; good progress has been confirmed in the implementation of one requirements, and others have been assessed as “certain progress.”
“To date, two of these seven steps have been completed: reform of the judiciary, with the creation of the High Council of Justice and the High Qualifications Commission of judges already working, with a merit-based selection process, as well as bringing media legislation into full conformity with the European Directive,” European Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhei, said.
The European Commission expects that Ukraine fulfill the remaining requirements in the coming months. According to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine “fits into the timeline” to open the negotiations on EU membership by the end of the year. “If no force majeure happens, everything will be fine,” the minister said.
On June 23, the EU Council approved the 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which should limit the Kremlin’s ability to avoid restrictions that are already in force.
The new package also extends bans on the export of sensitive goods (such as the new technologies and aviation materials) to third countries through which these goods enter Russia. 87 new entities have been added to the list of those who directly support the military-industrial complex of Russia. They are subject to more stringent restrictions on the export of dual-use goods and the latest technologies.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the EU decision and said that he expected its effective implementation to stop the Kremlin’s military machine. In response, Russia called such actions “illegitimate” and expanded the list of persons banned from entering the country.
$60 billion For the Restoration of Ukraine and the Mechanism of "Voluntary Transfer" of Funds From Sanctioned Russians
On June 19, 2023, British Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, announced that his country had introduced new legislation that allows sanctions against Russia to be maintained until the Kremlin pays compensation to Ukraine. The UK also created a mechanism for the “voluntary transfer” of funds from the sanctioned Russians to Ukraine.
Now the Russians under sanctions who declare support for Ukraine can do the right thing – they can donate their frozen funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The Ministry said that there would be no coercion to transfer funds or proposals for easing sanctions in exchange for a “voluntary transfer”.
No less important was the PACE resolution on the political consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine adopted on June 22. The document calls on the member states of the Council of Europe, which are members of NATO, to support Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. It approves the Ukrainian “peace formula”, and also welcomes the creation of the Register of Damages Caused by Russian Aggression.
In the resolution, the signatories also condemned the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, 2023: “This attack, aimed at delaying the Ukrainian counteroffensive, confirms the barbarism of Putin's military machine and is a war crime and ecocide.” In addition, “the Russian leaders recklessly threaten with nuclear war and use the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant for blackmail.”
The Assembly states that international responsibility should extend to all private military companies, proxies, and allies associated with Russia that “commit crimes and unlawful acts on the territory of Ukraine, in particular the Wagner PMC and the military forces of Ramzan Kadyrov.”
Also on June 21–22, a conference on the Ukraine’s recovery was held in London. It was attended by representatives of governments and businesses from 59 countries. They agreed to provide another $60 billion for Ukraine’s needs for recovery and reconstruction. In particular, the European Union announced a new multi-year program worth up to €50 billion, for the purposes of recovery, reconstruction, and modernisation. We also know that about 500 companies have already signed a business-compact, committing to support the reconstruction of Ukraine.
During the event, they also extensively discussed the plans of our country. In particular, Volodymyr Zelensky outlined five areas building the foundations for peace. Those are the potentials of unity, stability, growth, security, and democracy. At the same time, the attending Ukrainian delegation presented more specific developments.
Thus, the first vice-premier and Minister of Economy, Yulia Svyrydenko said that Ukraine has set a goal of increasing GDP from $161 billion to $1 trillion in 10 years since the country needs to have a strong army of more than 500,000 people and develop the social sphere, education, and health care.
Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine, Oksana Zholnovych, presented the strategy for social recovery. In particular, it is planned to digitalize all social solutions, build a new system of social support, develop family-based modalities of education, and create a prosthetics hub in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expects a post-war boom in the development of the military-industrial complex in Ukraine. The politician also spoke of the need to confiscate frozen assets from the Russian Federation. Ukraine is preparing “a fair mechanism to confiscate up to $500 billion of Russian assets hidden in the West.”