War Speeches. Agreements with russia are worthless – now the whole world must remember it

The past week (July 18–24) turned out to be rich in events related to the war in Ukraine. On July 19, putin flew to Tehran to negotiate the supply of Iranian drones, but failed to do so.

Subsequently, the fourth meeting of defense ministers of 50 countries was held in the Ramstein format, where another provision of weapons to Ukraine was announced, including 4 HIMARS systems. In addition, the new military assistance package was announced by the United Kingdom, and the EU allocated 500 million euros for the defense needs of Ukraine.

On Friday, July 22, an agreement was signed in Istanbul, which will allow to unblock the export of Ukrainian grain in three ports of the Black Sea. However, the next day russia launched a missile attack on the Odessa sea trade port.

In addition, russia continues its aggressive policy towards Ukraine. First, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation de facto announced the beginning of the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories. Later, russians went even further, saying that they intended to overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian government.

russia wants to prove to everyone that it is not in isolation,  but can be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism.

The topic of international isolation is very painful for russia who tries to convince its voters and the whole world that the rf plays an important role in international politics. So far, it has not been very successful but the russians are trying their best. For example, they are disseminating public statements that do not correspond to the current state of affairs but are the embodiment of the illusory world that russia is building for itself. A striking example is the statement of the spokeswoman of the russian foreign ministry, maria zakharova, that the US, the EU, and the UK (rather than russia) are in total isolation.

“The US satellite states are ready to support any Washington venture, but if we get real, most of the world's states do not support anti-russian sanctions and seek to maintain normal relations with russia. Today's reality is a multipolar world. Moscow, together with BRICS partners, represents an attractive alternative to the infamous Western ‘rules-based world order’. So the White House failed to ‘cancel russia,’ and will not succeed further. We are a hard nut to crack for America, they won't be able to defeat us, to tear our economy to pieces, or to bring us down to our knees,”she said.

However, russia decided to go further. Last week, for the second time since the beginning of the war, the russian President, vladimir putin, who probably does not like the nickname “the bunker one” assigned to him, held a foreign visit. For the first time since February 24, the kremlin leader left the russian federation for a recent visit to Turkmenistan, and now he held a meeting with the leaders of Iran and Turkey, in Tehran.

However, it seems that this visit was not too successful: the President of russia received no more than a little PR.

At the same time, the international credibility of the rf may shake substantially if the US recognizes it as a state sponsor of terrorism. The fact is that on Thursday, July 21, United States senators submitted a draft resolution on the recognition of russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide. At the same time, according to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andrii Yermak, the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, appealed to Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, with a proposal to recognize russia as a state sponsor of terrorism – otherwise Congress will do it.

russia wants to annex part of Ukrainian territories

The russian side publicly expressed their desire to occupy even more Ukrainian territory. In fact, they gave the green light to the organization of "pseudo-referendums" in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Thus, last week, sergei lavrov, in an interview with the russian media, announced new "geographical tasks of the special operation," which now include Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson region, and other territories of Ukraine.

“The President said it very clearly, as you quoted him, – denazification, demilitarization in the sense lest there are no threats to our security, or military threats from the territory of Ukraine, this task remains unchanged, but the geography is different today. This is not only the DPR and the LPR, it is also Kherson region, Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories, and this process is ongoing, and it continues consistently and persistently, "the Minister added.

A few days after lavrov's words, the occupation administrations in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts almost simultaneously announced the creation of "commissions" to organize the so-called "referendum" on joining russia. The date is not yet established but collaborators have announced that they plan to perform this spectacle in the autumn.

Instead, Ukraine emphasizes that it will liberate all russia-occupied territories, and that it does not want to freeze the war because in the future this will lead to another aggression from the russian federation. Thus, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda,  the President of Ukraine compared Russia to a “sperm-whale who swallowed two regions of Ukraine and now says: freeze the conflict": "Then they [russia] will rest and in two or three years they will capture two more regions and say again "freeze the conflict". And it will go on and on. 100% certain."

Ukraine successfully advocates new arms supplies, and russia wants to disrupt this process

On Wednesday, July, 20, it was already the fourth meeting of defense ministers of 50 countries of the world in the Ramstein format.  According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov, the new package of assistance contains the supply of weapons, munition, and training of Ukrainian soldiers, and much more that the enemy will experience on the battlefield. However, the head of the Ministry of Defense noted that he could not disclose all the details of the agreements reached. “In agreement with colleagues, we keep intrigue about the lion's share of the existing and new aid packages. First, the enemy will feel them on the battlefield. The meeting's positive signal includes new obligations of the partners. Which apply to land, sea, and sky, ”he stated. However, Oleksii Reznikov noted that the new assistance package will include 4 M142 HIMARS systems, which already affect the course of hostilities.

Also last week, the European Union approved the allocation of EUR 500 million to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This was informed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, following a telephone conversation with President of the European Council, Charles Michel. In addition, the UK has announced a new aid package that includes 20 M109 SAUs and 36 L119 artillery units, as well as other weapons and ammunition.

On July, 20, another important event took place, which may yield a good result for Ukraine in the short term. The Congress was addressed by the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, who called on the United States to provide more military assistance, including air defense systems, to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to protect the country from russian aggression.

On the same day, in a traditional evening address, Volodymyr Zelensky reported on certain arrangements for the supply of modern air defense systems. “But it all depends, unfortunately, not on us, but on the political decisions that can be made in key capitals. That is why this topic of air defense has become a key point in the address of the First Lady of Ukraine to the Congress of the United States of America today. It was the first time in history that the First Lady made such an address to the Congress, and undoubtedly it is an honor for Ukraine, for all our people," Zelensky said.

However, Ukraine's diplomatic successes in attracting modern military weapons keep bothering the russian federation. The aggressor country continues its campaign to discredit Ukraine through the spread of unfounded accusations. The goal is to disrupt the supply of Western weapons. Last week, russia continued to spread its propaganda narrative that Western weapons provided to Ukraine allegedly end up on the black market.

This message is actively promoted by the spokeswoman of the russian foreign ministry, maria zakharova, who said during one of her briefings that smuggling of Western weapons is increasing in Ukraine. "Since the beginning of the special military operation, Washington has already spent $7.3 billion on the military needs of Ukrainian forces and is not going to stop there. Nor does the EU lag behind from the overseas allies. In recent days, Brussels has decided to allocate new military aid to Kyiv in the amount of EUR 500 million. These weapons replenish the ‘black markets’ actively used by extremist and terrorist groups around the world. NATO and the EU are aware of this, it is confirmed by their attempts to create some control mechanisms and to get a report from Kyiv on the designated use of weapons supplied, ”– Zakharova said.

However, as always, russian diplomacy did not provide any evidence to support their words. Instead, against the background of kremlin propaganda, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksii Danilov, and the Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, presented the IAS "SOTA" module to monitor the weapons provided to Ukraine.

“Today, together with Oleksiy Reznikov, they presented the IAS ‘SOTA‘ module on monitoring the supply of weapons from partner countries to Ukraine. The module allows you to control new arms deliveries by status and supplier countries, and analyze deliveries in many aspects,” Danilov said. “The russian federation is now trying to discredit our state in every possible way regarding the alleged sale of weapons by Ukraine to third countries in order to disrupt the supply. But thanks to the ‘SOTA’ system, we know for sure that every weapon is under control, no bullet from the supply has disappeared anywhere, ”he added.

At the same time, Reznikov said that there will be three systems of arms control in Ukraine in general. “We will now have three monitoring systems operating in parallel. For internal use of ‘SOTA’. There is another one, ‘Karavay‘ system, similar to the ‘Car Way', which our specialists from the Digital Ministry, together with the Pentagon specialists, will finalize, and it will launch at full capacity. Since 2019, we have been integrating the internal NATO weapons accounting system LOGFAS in a limited version. Everything, from quantity to logistics and needs, is recorded there. Our partners will know where and what weapons are located,” the Minister said.

Grain deal: russia has shown the world its true face

“Agreements with russia are not worth the paper they are written on.” This phrase of Otto von Bismarck is well known in Ukraine. Now, both Turkey and the UN can see the truth of this statement and how the "iron" Chancellor was right, as he managed to work as an ambassador in russia.

The fact is that on July, 22, an agreement was signed in Istanbul, which will allow to unblock the export of grain from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. However, the next day russia launched a missile attack on the Odessa sea trade port. According to the data of the "South" OPCOM, the russians fired 4 cruise missiles of the "Caliber" type at the port. Two rockets were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems, and two more hit the pumping station. There were no strikes on the grain storage.

It is worth emphasizing that Ukraine did not sign any agreements with russia in Istanbul. The agreement was signed by our state with Turkey, through the mediation of the UN. In turn, rf signed a mirror agreement. It stipulates that the control of the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny is totally left to the Ukrainian side. No vessels other than those intended for the export of grain and related foodstuffs and fertilizers are expected to be in these ports.

The document does not provide for the ease of sanctions on russia, the demining of the territorial waters of Ukraine, or any transport escorts by russian ships of Ukrainian vessels.

A Joint Coordination Center (JCC) will be established in Istanbul under the auspices of the UN, which will include representatives of Ukraine, russia, Turkey, and the UN. It will supervise compliance with the agreements.

All merchant vessels involved in the transportation of grain will be subject to inspection by a special team, in the harbours designated by Turkey, at the entrance/exit to/from the Turkish Straits.

Also, within the scope of the agreement, all parties, including the rf, undertook not to attack the merchant and civil vessels and port facilities involved in this agreement.

Ukraine severely criticized the actions of the russian federation. “It took the russian federation less than 24 hours to launch a missile attack on the territory of the port of the city of Odessa to undermine the agreements and promises made by it to the UN and Turkey in a document signed yesterday in Istanbul. The russian missile is a  kick by vladimir putin in the teeth of UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and of Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who made a huge effort to reach a deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful," wrote  on Facebook Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

On the other hand, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the cynical strike of russia on the Odessa port on July, 23, is barbaric, and proves the impossibility of dialogue with the russian federation. “If someone in the world used to say that some kind of dialogue with russia is needed there, some arrangements – today's russian Calibers have destroyed the very opportunity for such words. This manifest russian barbarism brings us even closer to getting the weapons we need to win, ”Zelensky said in his traditional daily address.

The actions of the russian federation were also questioned in the UN. UN Secretary General, António Guterres, unreservedly condemned the attacks on the Ukrainian port of Odessa today. This is mentioned in a statement circulated by the deputy spokesman of the Secretary General, Farhan Haq.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the world stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related goods to world markets. These products are urgently needed to overcome the global food crisis and alleviate the suffering of millions of people in need around the world. Full implementation of the agreements by the russian federation, Ukraine, and Turkey is mandatory, ”the statement reads.

The actions of russia were also condemned by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU; Turkey expressed their concern. At first, russia did not publicly comment on the missile strikes. However, in a conversation with the Turkish Ministry of Defense, russia has traditionally denied the fact that it has launched a missile attack on Ukrainian infrastructure. “The russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack and that they were studying the issue very carefully and in detail. The fact that such an incident occurred immediately after the agreement was very disturbing to us. We are concerned about this”, said the Turkish Minister of Defence.

However, later, russia admitted that it was their troops that struck the Odessa port. The official reason for the attack was the alleged location of a military facility in the port. However, Ukraine is convinced it was a demonstration strike. This position was voiced by Mykhailo Podoliak, Advisor to the Head of the President's Office, a member of the negotiation group.

“Whether one wants to admit it or not, russia has deliberately dealt a demonstrative and humiliating blow to Turkey's and the UN's reputation. Again, informally addressing them with their classic phrase: ‘So, what's up with that?’. However, we remember that it is Turkey and the UN that are the full ‘guarantors of security’ of the transport corridors, and they also guaranteed the hungry world (not only Ukraine) that russia would stand aside at least here... A very eloquent and useful story about how the russian funeral team continues to fiercely bury themselves, ”the politician wrote in Telegram.

Does russia want Yanukovych back?

On Sunday, July 24, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sergey lavrov, said that the occupying country will help the people of Ukraine to get rid of the "anti-popular and anti-historical regime."

“We are sorry for the Ukrainian people, who deserve better. We are sorry for the Ukrainian history that is being destroyed before our eyes, and we are sorry for those who have succumbed to the state propaganda of the Kiev regime aimed at making Ukraine an eternal enemy of russia. The russian and Ukrainian people will continue to live together. We will definitely help the Ukrainian people to get rid of the regime, the absolutely anti-popular and anti-historical regime, ”the diplomat said.

In Ukraine, they promptly responded to lavrov's words. Mykhailo Podoliak called them classical schizophrenia, when in the morning you say that Moscow is seeking negotiations, and in the evening you claim that your goal is to "get rid of the anti-popular Kiev regime."

“Now then, ‘regimes’ is something found in russian prisons, and Ukraine has a legitimately elected government that won the fair, competitive, and democratic elections. There are so many unfamiliar words for the russian elite in one sentence, aren't there, ”the politician wrote in Telegram.