Last week (June 13–19), officials of the russian federation continued the general narrative about the absence of harmful effects of sanctions on the country's economy. russian president, vladimir putin, spoke about this again, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
He was supported by other russian politicians expressing their disappointment with French President Macron who supported Ukraine and did not call on the Ukrainian authorities to “save the face for Putin” and abandon the occupied territories.
Another blow for russians came from the President of Kazakhstan, Tokayev. He spoke together with putin at a panel discussion where he refused to recognize the independence of the so-called “L/DPR” republics and called Donetsk and Luhansk the quasi-state territories.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to build up its international diplomatic “muscles” and receive more weapons to deter the aggressor.
Ukraine has taken another step towards European integration – the European Commission has adopted a decision and recommended granting Ukraine the status of a candidate state for accession to the European Union. Ukraine also received the support of countries (Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Germany) that are considered to be sceptical about Ukraine's European integration prospects.
In fact, this support guarantees Ukraine a positive decision of the European Council which should decide, at their meeting on June 23-24, whether to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the EU.
russia claims that European sanctions are not harmful because russia’s “big”
In early June, the EU introduced the 6th package of economic and personal sanctions against russia. In particular, it is now prohibited to purchase, import, or transport crude oil and certain petroleum products from russia to the EU.
The phase-out of russian oil will take from six months, for crude oil, to eight months, for other petroleum products. This will significantly reduce energy exports from the russian federation and cause serious damage to the country's economy.
We should not forget about other economic sanctions and the pull-out of many Western companies from the russian market. However, russian officials are convincing their voters that Russia will only benefit from sanctions, whereas the world loses.
putin's press secretary pointed out that the food crisis that the world is about to face has been actually caused by sanctions against the rf, rather than by the russian troops blocking Ukrainian ports and by Ukraine's inability to export grain and other agricultural products to international markets.
“We can now see how all these restrictions, the sanctions that have been imposed (against rf – ed.), affect the energy prices, food and so on. We see the results of the mistakes of many countries, which manifest themselves in the food crisis that is beginning,” said dmitry peskov, a spokesman for the president of russia.
The impact of sanctions on the EU was particularly highlighted by the chairman of the State Duma of the russian federation, viatcheslav volodin. His position is that all negative economic consequences for the EU are in favor of the US. In other words, according to him, the US mitigates the impact of sanctions on its economy.
“The US has created preconditions for countries willing to build equal dialogue and mutually beneficial relations to actually form a ‘new G8’ with russia,” volodin said.
It is not known about which G8 volodin was talking about. Perhaps, it was about the union of russia, Eritrea, belarus, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and four other “great” powers.
As far as sanctions are concerned, the official argues that since russia is large, no “restrictions” can harm it.
“russia is too big a country for the war against us not to rebound to them like a boomerang,” dmitry peskov said.
peskov’s rationale is interesting to see because russia itself started the war, and their officials said that they were not afraid of sanctions. However, as OPORA has already mentioned, the rf tries to demand the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the unblocking of Ukrainian ports.
Russia must be not that “big,” after all.
Humiliation or "Important" putin's Speech at the St. Petersburg International Forum
As a matter of fact, the russians wanted to show the “grandeur” of their country at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. However, as always, everything went wrong, although according to the plan.
On June, 13, russian president's spokesman, dmitry peskov, said that vladimir putin's speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum would be extremely important. According to him, the head of the rf had to talk about the impact of sanctions on russia, the rise in energy prices and, of course, the onset of the food crisis in the world.
In the end, putin really touched on these topics but blamed all the troubles on the “collective West” and the United States of America.
“Many of the trade, production, and logistics links previously disrupted by the pandemic are now going through new trials. Moreover, such key concepts for business as business reputation, the inviolability of property and trust in world currencies have been deeply undermined – and unfortunately, they were undermined by our partners in the West, and it is done intentionally, for the sake of ambition, for the sake of preserving outdated geopolitical illusions (does he at all understand that russia itself lives by the outdated geopolitical illusions? – ed.),” putin said.
In addition, he stressed that such conditions do not affect the economy of the russian federation at all. On the contrary, russia is perfectly coping with the challenges. The russian president, like other already mentioned policies of the rf, promotes a message that all the introduced sanctions allegedly affect their initiators. Obviously, these statements are intended to convince Western countries that sanctions should be lifted from russia because they also harm them.
“The economic blitzkrieg against russia had no chance for success, from the start. At the same time, the sanction weapon, as we know (and the practice of recent years shows it well) is sharp. It causes comparable, if not greater, damage to their ideologues themselves,” believes the russian dictator.
Also, the president of the russian federation has not forgotten about geopolitics. He is bothered by the USSR's defeat in the Cold War with the US.
“The United States, by proclaiming victory in the Cold War, has declared itself the Lord's messengers on earth, who have no obligations but only interests, and these interests have been declared sacred. They seem not to notice that new strong centers have formed on the planet in recent decades and are making themselves increasingly more vocal. Each of them develops their own political systems and public institutions; they implement their own models of economic growth and, of course, have the right to their protection to ensure national sovereignty,” putin said.
Having analyzed putin’s messages, we can state that instead of the promised keynote address, the president of the russian federation has once again highlighted the old propaganda narratives.
They certainly discussed a “special military operation” in Ukraine. During the discussion, a rather unpleasant thing occurred for the russian dictator. Several leaders, including China's Xi Jinping (online) and Kazakhstan's Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, were invited to take part in the event.
The words of the latter, Kazakhstan's position on the war in Ukraine could be clearly seen. Tokayev said that his country does not recognize the LPR/DPR, calling them quasi-state territories. Thus, the President of Kazakhstan questioned the legitimacy of conducting a “special military operation,” which, according to a number of political reviewers, humiliated putin who participated in the panel discussion with Tokayev.
“We do not recognize Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. And, obviously, this principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Luhansk and Donetsk,” the President of Kazakhstan said.
russia wants negotiations and says they did not invade Ukraine; they also dream that Macron and Co persuade Zelensky to surrender
russians continue to promote the message that Ukraine seems to be slowing down the negotiation process and does not want to end the war.
The participant of russia’s negotiation group, vladimir medinsky, noted that, in his opinion, Ukraine does not want peace.
“It has been two months now but the Ukrainian side has not been able to respond in some formal way, to verbal convey to us that they are taking a pause in the negotiations. Accordingly, I have the feeling that Ukraine does not want ‘peace’,” medinsky said.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said during an online press conference for Danish media on June, 14, that he was ready at any moment to negotiate with the president of russia, with or without mediators, to end the war and withdraw russian troops from Ukrainian territories.
Following medinsky, russian foreign minister, sergei lavrov, said that at the end of March Ukraine set out on paper a negotiating position that suited the rf as a basis for work. However, since mid-April, there has been complete silence in negotiations with Ukraine, and Kyiv does not respond to the proposals. At the same time, lavrov stated that russia did not invade Ukraine.
“We did not invade Ukraine. We announced a special military operation when we no longer had a way to explain to the West that they have been engaged in criminal activity by drawing Ukraine into NATO,” the minister said.
However, “russian-style” negotiations mean that in order to achieve peace and end the war, Ukraine must abandon the territories occupied by russia. This is eloquently evidenced by the words of a member of the negotiating group, leonid slutsky, and the press secretary of the president of russia, dmitry peskov.
slutsky said that negotiations between russia and Ukraine can resume soon but if this happens, it will be only on the basis of the agenda of the president of the russian federation. As for peskov, he reacted to the visit to Ukraine of Emanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Mario Draghi, and Klaus Johannis, who visited Kyiv ahead of the decision of the European Commission to grant Ukraine EU candidate status.
peskov hinted: European leaders should convince Zelensky that Ukraine should abandon the russian-occupied territories.
“Macron, Scholz, Draghi, and Johannis should use their contact to encourage President Zelensky to look at the real state of affairs,” said peskov.
However, despite the desire of peskov and, apparently, of his kremlin patron, European leaders supported granting Ukraine the candidate status for accession to the EU, and emphasized that they would not require Ukraine to end the war. In addition, the President of France announced the provision of additional military assistance to Ukraine, such as six Cesar SAUs.
The results of the meeting in Kyiv irritated the former president of the russian federation, the present deputy chairman of the security council of the russian federation, dmitry medvedev. He indulged into some offensive remarks about the leaders of France, Germany, and Italy.
“Well, the European fans of frogs, liver, and pasta like to visit Kyiv. Useful values are zero. Once again, they promised to accept them in the EU, to give some old howitzers, turned bottoms up with vodka, and, like a hundred years ago, returned home by train. Everything is fine. But this does not bring Ukraine closer to peace. And time is running out,” the russian politician wrote in his Telegram channel.
The European Commission supports granting Ukraine the candidate status for accession to the EU; the Netherlands and Denmark do not deny, either.
On June, 17, the European Commission announced its decision to recommend that Ukraine be granted the EU candidate status. In Ukraine, this news was received happily, and in russia, it did not add any positive attitudes.
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, said that Ukraine is currently experiencing historic events and has taken another important step on the path towards European integration.
“We are now one step away from embarking on full integration with the European Union. We have a positive opinion of the European Commission on Ukraine’s candidacy. In fact, it is interesting to see how the course of history itself chooses the time for significant decisions: today, the Government of Ukraine canceled the visa-free regime agreement with the russian federation. Now the visa regime will work from July, 1. It is hard to overestimate the symbolism of this decision happening today. But no one determined the moment on purpose. This is the course of history,” the President said in his video address.
In addition, Volodymyr Zelenskyi informed that the Netherlands, which, together with Denmark, were sceptical about granting Ukraine the candidate status, is ready to support such a decision. The President of Ukraine said this after a conversation with Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rütte.
In turn, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, wrote on Twitter that Denmark supports Ukraine in obtaining EU candidate status.
“I spoke with Jeppe Kofod (Danish Minister for Foreign Affairs – ed.) who assured me that Denmark supports granting Ukraine the candidate status in the EU. I am grateful to Jeppe for his support. I told him that this decision inspires every Ukrainian citizen, including those who are at the front line,” said the Ukrainian politician.
Now the European Council will decide whether to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the EU at its meeting on June, 23-24.
The EU related topic was not overlooked by russian politicians. They did not oppose Ukraine's candidacy but indulged into aggressive statements about the European Union itself. Most of all, EU was scolded by russia's permanent representative to the UN, vasiliy nebenzya. He accused the EU of lacking an independent position. However, traditionally enough, the diplomat has not explained what he meant exactly.
“In the light of the EU's apparent hostility to russia, we have no choice but to review our fundamental approaches to developing relations with this organisation. In recent years, russia has become accustomed to counting only on itself. As both a European and an Asian state, we will build relations with states that have an independent position and are not afraid to protect their interests. The European Union is no longer in this cohort,” said nebenzya.
More weapons for Ukraine – outcomes of the third meeting in Ramstein, ambitious plans from Rieznikov
Another top topic in Ukraine was the supply of heavy weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fact is that on June, 15, the third meeting of the representatives of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine was held at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
On the one hand, on the eve of this meeting, Ukraine thanked the Western partners for the weapons they provide, and on the other hand, Ukraine emphasizedthat it is not enough to stop the russian aggression. For example, two days before the event, the advisor to the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podoliak, wrote on his Twitter how much equipment Ukraine needs to win.
"I'll be straightforward. To end the war and throw russia out of Ukraine, we need parity of heavy weapons: 1,000 units of 155 mm howitzers; 300 MLRS; 500 tanks; 2,000 armored vehicles; 1,000 drones,” the politician wrote.
In line with the criteria of Podoliak, the official results of the meeting in Brussels are relatively modest. However, there are also some positive outcomes. After the meeting, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov, tweeted about them.
“Georgia, Moldova, Ecuador joined the club; more weapons to be supplied by the United States (155 mm guns, HIMARS, harpoons, etc.); helicopters from Slovakia; artillery from Canada, Poland, the Netherlands; MLRS from Germany,” the minister wrote.
In addition, Oleksiy Reznikov, in an interview with CNN, according to DW, said that Ukraine is going to liberate all its territories, including Crimea. According to the Minister, Western weapons will help to achieve this goal.
“Crimea is a strategic goal for Ukraine because it is a Ukrainian territory. But we will move step by step,” underscored Reznikov.
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine specified that the first step to victory will be the stabilization of the situation on the front; the second phase will be to send russian troops to positions as of before February, 24; and as late as at the third stage, Ukraine will discuss with partners the strategy for the liberation of the occupied territories, including Crimea.
Civil Network OPORA specially for Ukrainska Pravda