OPORA analysts see several scenarios on the part of russia regarding the integration of the newly occupied territories. Still, their implementation depends on the results on the front and whether russia will be able to agree with the collective West without taking into account Ukraine's position. The main prospects for the status of the occupied territories are as follows: 1) the entry of the newly occupied territories into the russian federation as a subject (as the Crimea); 2) conducting a pseudo-referendum and legalizing this entity based on its results (as the so-called "l/dpr"); 3) "union state" where the russian-occupied territories of Ukraine are proclaimed as some other real Ukraine, which russia recognizes, and together with belarus and russia, this "union state" is formed; 4) "separate territories" where the territories are not a subject of russian federation legally, but russia considers them it's own and exercises control over them. But for now, russia is in no hurry to make a concrete decision on the occupied territories, as it hopes to either expand the occupied territories by military means or bargain with the collective West on favorable terms. In addition, analysts have traditionally discussed the main trends of what happened last week in the russian-occupied territories of Ukraine both in 2014 and in 2022 on the online stream "Occupied" on Monday, the 6th of June.
"From what I see now, analyzing the behavior of the so-called occupation administrations, the contours of the policy pursued in the newly occupied territories were outlined 2-3 weeks ago. If we talk about the propaganda component - blocking information, and public access to communications with Ukraine, while implementing propaganda broadcasting in the form of television channels, communications, and the Internet - all this is done through this network. All these contours of this policy have already been outlined, and now routine procedures are being set up on how to work with it," OPORA's analyst Oleksandr Neberykut said. According to him, the chaos is gradually put in order, but still, everything looks very chaotic. However, it seems that there is a movement in the direction of freezing the military conflict to get a space for maneuver regardless of the situation at the front.
Oleksander Kliuzhev, OPORA's senior analyst, notes that he does not yet have the impression that russia has already formed a holistic model for the future of this territory, in case, of course, they hold these newly occupied territories by force. He also noted he was worried about visits of the russian elites to all these occupied territories becoming more systematic and that more powerful political figures joined the curatorial process (for example, moscow mayor sobyanin visited Luhansk). "Compared to previous periods, the presence of such figures, which still mean something in the russian system, suggests that a certain integration of the occupied territories into russia is becoming a matter of russia's domestic political agenda. They, of course, show they are at home there. But how is this different from previous periods, for example, the occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk? The presence of the russian elite in the occupied territories was a matter of propaganda rather than real domestic politics. It now seems that the presence of more or less powerful russian figures in the occupied territories suggests that they see the coverage of these territories not only as a matter of current russian propaganda. This is more of a strategic issue for them. They already see this as a political resource. And this is a cause for concern," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
Also, according to Kliuzhev, the appointment of Sergei Kirienko as the curator of the occupied territories is alarming. In 2018, he received the title of the so-called hero of russia from putin. He is also unofficially referred to as one of few possible putin's successors. This means that the specialist in the domestic policy of the putin's regime is already positioned as the one who determines the future of the occupied territories. "I would make the assumption that this enhanced integration of the occupied territories by russia is still the beginning of the process of creating an image of a certain result in the temporarily occupied territories for russians. That is, if they have not been and will not be able to solve the first goals of putin's so-called special operation in russia, they are still thinking about the need to present some more certain results to russian society. And this accelerated so-called integration of the temporarily occupied territories will be presented as a certain result of the fact that russia has increased, russia has been able to establish its stable regime in the temporarily occupied territories. And I think that Kirienko's statements are still in the perspective that "we are already the masters of this Ukrainian land, and we will establish our long-term order here." Therefore, I see some alarming signals in this regard," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
Oleksandr Neberykut noted that from the outside, it may also look like a typical post-Soviet election campaign, where all these people act as VIP agitators. For example, the visits of Sergei Turchak, a representative of the governing body of the "United russia" party, and other deputies are accompanied by party symbols. They distribute humanitarian aid, and their faces are on the billboards, and so on. "I don't dare to say there are some certain election dates because on September 11, there will be elections in russia in some regions. I think that is not the perspective yet. Although, many say that potential pseudo-referendums can then be tied to these dates. But at the same time, I'd like to note there is such work not only for the domestic audience but also for potential, so to say, voters, if we talk about the newly occupied territories. There is this attitude towards the Ukrainian residents there as a potential electorate. Which is further confirmed by all these attempts to issue passports and so on," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
Also, according to Oleksandr Kliuzhev, among other events that took place last week in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, there is a continuation and even strengthening of the trend of so-called nationalization. It is clear that this is the theft of Ukrainian property, the analyst said. In particular, the head of the so-called "dpr" Pushylin said that they would now have a trading port due to the nationalization of foreign ships stationed in the port of Mariupol. Also, russian elites voiced their old dream of involving the CSTO in controlling the temporarily occupied territories as peacekeepers, Kliuzhev said. Therefore the CSTO states should have in mind that russia hasn't given up the idea of putting pressure on them and forcing them to take part in the aggression.
Oleksandr Kliuzhev calls the occupiers' statements about the forthcoming pseudo-trial of Ukrainian servicemen who were evacuated from Azovstal very alarming. Pushylin reiterated the possibility of a pseudo-tribunal that would violate the rights of war prisoners. "The situation is not resolved. russia is not going to make concessions on this issue, and it is not going to abide by international conventions. Therefore, unfortunately, the situation is difficult," Oleksander Kliuzhev said. In his opinion, the issue of the captured foreigners remains an important point of international attention and control over the actions of the occupying power. The russians are also using them for a large international propaganda campaign, but, unfortunately, the show continues.
Kliuzhev also noted that all territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions are now suffering a lot from shelling and large-scale hostilities. russian warfare tactics involve, in fact, the destruction of settlements. In particular, the center of Donetsk was shelled last week, and the leadership of the so-called "DNR" accused Ukraine of this. However, according to the head of the Donetsk regional military administration Pavlo Kyrylenko, the time between the shelling and the damage to the infrastructure was extremely short. This shows that the shelling was not done from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian military. "Unfortunately, we know, in particular, from the testimonies of some militants, that there is the practice of intimidation of the local population with such provocative shelling in the temporarily occupied territories. We want to wish all citizens of Ukraine living in the temporarily occupied territories and in the war zone to be safe and protect themselves," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
According to the analyst, a number of trends have been going on for more than a week. New humanitarian policy involving children in putin's movements, destroying Ukrainian culture, and fighting Ukrainian books are, unfortunately, a traditional set in the occupied territories.
According to Oleksandr Neberykut, the topic of nationalization was also important in the occupied territories of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv regions. This aggressive kleptocratic approach, in other words, robbery, is formalized in a seemingly civilized direction. Relevant decrees appeared almost simultaneously in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and their content is the same, but they are interpreted differently, according to the analyst. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the appointed occupation leader declared the nationalization of property belonging to the Ukrainian state, but, according to him, it doesn't apply to private property. But, Neberykut says it's only a matter of time before it affects private property. In the Kherson region, the occupying leader Saldo said everything that belonged to the citizens and the state of Ukraine would be nationalized. He said it now will belong to the Kherson region, but later, he clarified - to the military-civilian administration, the analyst said.
"We understand they will take everything away. In fact, there is already the first signal, which is the network of pharmacies. They took all pharmacies under their control, including private ones. Communal pharmacies are another story, and it makes sense, it was to be expected. But private ones are, in fact, an instrument of pressure and repression. It's important to understand this. Because when we perceive the behavior of the people who remain in these areas, we forget that they are dependent in terms of doing business from such decisions. That is, in fact, if we literally understand this approach, all those who will sabotage or not perform their activities in terms of business - and work in the usual mode - this company will be at risk of nationalization. Their property will be simply taken away because the person does not want to work in the conditions of this "legal regime" that has been imposed. Here it is necessary to understand what challenges people who have a business face," Oleksandr Neberykut said. That is, not only educators and other employees who are in the state system, which does not currently have support from Ukraine for objective reasons, are the hostages of the situation, the analyst said.
Another important trend Neberykut noted is the closure of the region. The movement is significantly limited both between the occupied territories and Ukraine and the occupied territories themselves. Even cities, such as Melitopol, are much more closed to entry/exit than two weeks ago. The analyst notes that the Ukrainian Internet was cut off - all the wires were mechanically damaged, and everything goes through russian servers. Communication is still difficult, and there were attempts to cut it off, instead a gradual entry of russian operators was announced. "Such self-isolation is taking place so that propaganda can be introduced easily. Their approach is that the population is seen as a potential electorate. The campaign for the issuance of passports is as wide as possible. If nationalization is a top theme, but it did not sound so loud, then the issuance of passports is something that is constantly talked about on all streams of local propaganda channels," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
He also notes that last week, for example, russia's migration service, an official government agency, began operations. Prior to that, it was more of a "volunteer format" of issuing passports on the basis of passport desks or CNAPs by "volunteers" who came from russian regions. According to the analyst, these "volunteers" are paid, but the Ministry of Defense and the FSB also monitor them all. It is planned to expand this network of passports, and all this documentation will be tied to Crimea. Another interesting trend, according to the analyst, is the draft law registered in the state duma, which provides for simplified registration of local branches of NGOs such as "Antimaidan", "Volunteers of Victory", "Orthodox Russia" in the newly occupied territories of Ukraine.
The looting also continues, the analyst said. Metal sheets from the port of Mariupol and last year's grain harvest in the Kherson region are exported. The occupation administration has already said it plans to start harvesting winter grain in about two weeks. Apparently, their fate will also be sent to ports and then to Rostov-on-Don or other regions of Russia. "Theft also continues. They methodically worked everything out here, including in other previously occupied territories," Oleksander Neberykut.
Regarding the nationalization of private business, Kliuzhev also draws attention to the anecdotal situation in Zaporizhia. There, local collaborators threaten not only the owners of outlets but also Rinat Akhmetov, Igor Kolomoisky, and Viktor Pinchuk. They promise to nationalize their facilities because of their support of Ukraine. According to the analyst, they could not help creating a standard image of the enemy among rich people who support Ukraine. Despite the same rich people who come from russia do not raise questions.
Local residents do not accept their measures to implement certain initiatives, and the occupants themselves speak openly about it, Kliuzhev says. For example, in the Skadovsk district of the Kherson region, the occupation administration accused public utilities of refusing to follow any instructions and "restore people's lives." Also, according to the analyst, russia promoted at the level of its propaganda that, for example, in occupied Mariupol, former Ukrainian police officers took up their so-called powers. The head of the National Police, Ihor Klymenko, stated that all those who didn't come to the controlled territory were fired. But the most interesting thing, according to Kliuzhev, is that even in propaganda materials, these former policemen do not appeal to what russia expected.
Kliuzhev notes they actually say that they are local and want to live in their homes, but it so happened that their city is now subordinated to russia. However, they also refer to the fact they didn't have an order to move to the controlled territory, which is obviously not true. "Interestingly, really, no one, even at the level of russian propaganda, says this is the usual result they expected from russia. They refer to their own certain subjective factors, why they are in the occupied territories and why they want to defend, as they say, the peace of ordinary citizens. This also shows that russia really miscalculated with the flowers they expected from the Ukrainian population at the beginning of this so-called special operation," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
According to Oleksandr Neberykut, the so-called occupation law enforcement agencies are being created, and they have a huge staffing problem. And this is, in particular, due to the fact that the Ukrainian policemen did not stay, and some of them stayed but refused to cooperate. The analyst says there is no expected cooperation. In addition, even those who remained in the occupied territories have great to the occupation administrations. So, they took the personnel reserve from the Crimea in Zaporizhzhia, and they relied on the russian orthodox cossacks. "This is an important nuance that there was no loyalty. And this is obviously what they did not expect, what came as a surprise. What did they expect? They expected flowers and that all they would have to do is to change the road signs," Oleksandr Neberykut says.
At the end of the stream, the analysts shared their views on the prospects and trends in the formatting of the newly occupied territories of Ukraine by russia.
"We actually have two main approaches that the occupiers use in terms of modeling further developments. One approach is that they would very much like the newly occupied territories to become part of the russian federation as a subject. Another approach, which they also like, is a kind of pseudo-referendum and, as a result, some kind of legalization of this entity with or without further entry with recognition. Or with some confederation, conditionally speaking, and the unification of all these territories and giving them some name, for example, "True Ukraine" instead of this Ukraine, which russia is trying not to recognize," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
But, according to the analyst, the context for these approaches is very variable. For example, there are several public positions on pseudo-referendums: state duma deputy Sheremet says that it should be held after the so-called military operation; state duma deputy Novichkov believes that it can be carried out during the so-called special operation, for example, in the fall together with the regional elections in Russia on September 11; kremlin senator Klimov advocates the annexation of the newly occupied territories without a pseudo-referendum; VIP-agitator of "United russia" Turchak advocates a pseudo-referendum as soon as the situation allows; state duma deputy and LDPR leader Slutsky says it will be possible to annex these territories in July; pseudo-governor of Kherson region Stremousov believes they will not have time to organize a pseudo-referendum by the autumn until the situation normalizes, and maybe by 2023; putin's spokesman peskov says they have no understanding of the timing of possible referendums.
"There are many different options for referendums. And they will work with each of these options depending on how events unfold. Therefore, everything is done for this in terms of information training, in terms of passports, and everything else. Obviously, it is no surprise to us that this pseudo-referendum may one day take place. There are more questions about the possible registration and legalization of this occupation by the russian federation in the format of entry, so to speak, as a subject. And in fact, what is happening now is de facto such an entry: harmonization of legislation, issuing of passports, the establishment of economic logistics, the use of rubles, everything else. In general, systematic work is being done to ensure that the legalization of the occupation of these territories is only a formal step. All other efforts will be prepared," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
Neberykut also quotes Pushylin on February 11, wheт he said that they would like to see Ukraine within the union state with Belarus and Russia. But he notes that this is no longer the "state of Ukraine", but a new state that may emerge after the offensive. Therefore, the third configuration of this legalization of the newly occupied territories of Ukraine is the union state.
"I think we must take into account two factors that affect a certain russian strategy. The first factor is their hope that they will be able to expand the occupied territories. Still, I would explain some uncertainty about the so-called referendum on the part of the occupier by the fact that they still believe that it will be possible to occupy the regions more seriously and declare a large-scale victory. Therefore, from this point of view, organizing some so-called local referendums for them now is not a far-sighted policy from the point of view of the occupier's interests. I think it still works. The second factor that is traditionally influencing russia is the attempt to bargain with the collective West. Despite the situation now differing significantly from the previous stage of the war against Ukraine, they still hope to find a compromise with the West. And they still talk about these hopes. And, by the way, they were always obvious in their attitude to the occupied territories of Ukraine," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.
The analyst predicts that if they fail to expand their territories or bargain on favorable terms with the West, they will find the most unexpected model of integration of these territories. Therefore, the initiative of the "united states" to put pressure on the partners of the post-Soviet space is possible. He notes that russia also has the concept of "separate territories". These are not full-fledged subjects of the russian federation but certain territories that russia considers its own, where it exercises control over the situation. This concept belongs to russian bureaucrats who think it's difficult to rebuild the whole system for new entities, so they can keep them in the rights of the "younger brother", which is completely dependent but isn't a full-fledged entity at the level of the procedures.
"I think we can see some such legal madness. And it is absolutely unpredictable. But this can happen only in case they would not see more prospects for trade in Ukrainian territories with the West. If their attempt to promote the idea of making concessions to russia fails through certain European politicians. The idea of forgetting the crimes it committed on the territory of Ukraine, a certain truce and a certain compromise. If all this fails, if russia's efforts to expand the occupied territories do not succeed thanks to the efforts of the Armed Forces, then they will present a crazy legal scenario of seizing these territories, which will be convincing for only one entity, which is russian putin's voter. That is why I understand these ideas about the union state as warming up the expectations of the russian putin's voter," Oleksandr Kliuzhev said.