Demographics and Migration of Ukrainians
To create this dashboard, Civil Network OPORA regularly monitors, collects, and verifies information from various sources.
Population Estimate
It is impossible to state exactly how many people lived in our country before the full-scale invasion. According to various methodological estimates, even before the full-scale war, the population of Ukraine was estimated as:
- 37.3 million people (estimate by the Government of Ukraine, excluding temporarily occupied territories, December 1, 2019)
- 41 million people (Eurostat, 2022)
- 41.1 million people (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, excluding temporarily occupied territories of Crimea, February 1, 2022)
- 43.8 million people (World Bank, 2021)
- The annual population decline was over 420,000 (!) people.
- Even by the most conservative estimates, Ukraine’s population has decreased by over 8 million people in 30 years.
Demographic Trends before February 24, 2022:
- Higher mortality rate compared to the birth rate
- Mass emigration, particularly of young people
- Low birth rate
- Complex socio-economic situation
State Border Guard Service (SBGS)
One of the primary sources of data for estimating the number of Ukrainians who left the country is the information from the State Border Guard Service regarding border crossings.
Indeed, this data cannot precisely determine how many citizens left Ukraine, considering the possibility of multiple border crossings, the return of Ukrainians who were abroad before February 24, 2022, and the difficulties in recording mass departures to neighboring countries in the first three weeks after the full-scale Russian invasion began.
In total, from January 1, 2022, to August 31, 2024, there were 81.14 million border crossings in both directions.Specifically, as of September 1, 2024, the SBGS recorded 41.85 million exits from Ukraine and 39.29 million entries. ЯAs we can see, the migration balance is negative, with a difference of 2.56 million people. Notably, since the beginning of 2024, about 211,000 people have left Ukraine. However, more accurate figures can be calculated after the summer season.
As of August 1, 2024, Ukrainians most frequently crossed the border with Poland, with – 44.77 million exits and entries. This is more than the number of border crossings with all other countries neighboring Ukraine combined. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), the largest number of Ukrainians are in Poland and neighboring Germany.
UNHCR
The UNHCR is the leading organization working to protect the rights and welfare of refugees, asylum seekers, and stateless persons worldwide. The organization’s mandate includes collecting, analyzing, and disseminating data on the situation of these population groups. Notably, UNHCR regularly publishes information on the number of Ukrainians abroad.
According to the organization’s data, as of mid-August 2024, 4.805 million Ukrainians are in Europe; globally, the number is 5.376 million.
NOTE: OPORA does not include data provided by Russia and Belarus in these calculations, as the organization considers them unreliable.
Ukrainians Abroad
OPORA has analyzed information regarding Ukrainians abroad. Currently, the largest number of Ukrainians are in Poland — 1.2 million people, and in Germany — 1.1 million. The highest percentage of Ukrainians relative to the total population of the respective country is in Montenegro — 11.5%, Moldova — 5.5%, and the Czech Republic — 5.3%.
State Migration Service of Ukraine
Using requests to the State Migration Service of Ukraine (SMSU), OPORA regularly tracks the number of documents issued to Ukrainian citizens abroad. Notably, from February 24, 2022, to August 13, 2024, 892,060 Ukrainian passports were issued abroad.
Below is a breakdown by institution:
SE “Document” offices abroad issued 241,633 Ukrainian national ID cards and 650,427 Ukrainian passports for traveling abroad.
Foreign diplomatic missions have issued 386,133 Ukrainian passports for traveling abroad.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
Using requests to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, OPORA regularly monitors the number of Ukrainians abroad. According to MFA data, about 15-20% of Ukraine’s population as of February 24, 2022, is currently abroad due to the war.
It should be noted that the data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not distinguish Ukrainians forced to flee due to Russia’s invasion and Ukrainians abroad in general (labor migrants, people with Ukrainian citizenship living abroad, etc.).
Ministry of Justice
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine publishes annual statistical information on civil status registration. This includes data on births and deaths, as well as other indicators such as marriages, divorces, name changes, etc. Since the Ministry of Justice provides factual data, it should be used to assess population changes. For instance, in 2023, the death rate exceeded the birth rate by 308,000 people, and in 2022, by 335,000 people.
Open Data
Civil Network OPORA supports the concept of open data. If you want to receive the information presented in our dashboard in a machine-readable format, please write to us about this need at the email address [email protected].
Our Research
Read more about migration, demographics, and resistance to Russian aggression in our publications.
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